(Thank you Red Lilly for this PTR post)
David Chat @ BLC 7/27/11 by smitty
[dtmc] How are we ?
[dtmc] wow the spirit is high in here
[dtmc] Smitty10 hola
[Smitty10] dtmc Good to see you
[JohnnyZ] dtmc so you think we are near an GOI
[dtmc] JohnnyZ We may just get it all done by Sunday, Goi that is.
[JohnnyZ] dtmc right, I feel a real urgency in the news today
[dtmc] JohnnyZ agreed
[bigpuller] dtmc david is the hcl part of the erbil agreement
Read More button on right
[delano] dtmc in the news they seem to be blaming each other S and M and GOI and CBI unless I have that wrong? for the hold up ......
[dtmc] let me go see. I do not think so bigpuller
[dtmc] Smitty10 no need. I can blend in with the folks little bit
[dtmc] I like to watch some times
[bigpuller] dtmc do you think we need it for an rv beings its just the pay out to the citizens for their share of the oil
[bigpuller] dtmc do you think we need the hcl hun for an rv to happen
[dtmc] bigpuller Article 11 of the Erbil agreement states they must complete the oil and gas law within a year
[dtmc] if the HCL is connected to it and it may well be then they have a year from seating the goi to do it
[bigpuller] dtmc okay so doesnt mean no rv though right..
[bigpuller] dtmc im looking for the last pieces to this puzzle
[dtmc] bigpuller Erbil may not stop the RV
[bigpuller] dtmc got cha
[bigpuller] dtmc do you know when the original hcl was signed before they had to ammend it
[dtmc] bigpuller remember the Erbil is more government related and the RV is in CBI"s hands after the parliament
[bigpuller] dtmc okay
[JohnnyZ] makes sense
[dtmc] bigpuller I assumed a little before the Budget was passed ( assumption)
[bigpuller] dtmc so the only part of erbil we needed was the ministers and allawi's position
[bigpuller] dtmc okay so we are well into the year then
[dtmc] bigpuller no we need about 4 things yet to be completed
[bigpuller] dtmc what are your thoughts on chapter seven
[bigpuller] dtmc i meant for the first passing of the hcl
[dtmc] 2 have sunset dates of 1 year in the census' case and two years for the HCL
[dtmc] bigpuller Sanctions still exist but does not stop the revaluation
[bigpuller] dtmc okay but what is left of erbil should not stop this
[bigpuller] dtmc saweeeet
[dtmc] bigpuller is there even 1 article that suggests the sanctions are off?
[bigpuller] dtmc just states what is left
[bigpuller] for sanctions
[bigpuller] dtmc we have the first big u.n. meeting last fall and now we just have the articles saying what is left ... the borders, the deceased and the antiquities
[dtmc] bigpuller yes
[bigpuller] dtmc so the port of mubarek is no longer a problem either
[bigpuller] dtmc sorry to pick your brain but a girls gotta know lol
[dtmc] bigpuller port will always be a problem until Iraq pays Kuwait or at least settle some more issues with them
[dtmc] look at this scenario
[dtmc] Remember Iraq was close the Kuwaiti file by June 15th 2011
[dtmc] they could not because they just did not get it all done
[dtmc] then Maliki and Allawi met with Ban ki moon
[dtmc] they beseeched him to help them out
[bigpuller] yes in june
[dtmc] then maliki went to Korea
[dtmc] then he came to the US
[dtmc] then the French Visits him
[bigpuller] and then to china
[dtmc] all G 20 countries and 3 of the largest veto countries on the UN
[bigpuller] so tomorrow we could really see something then from the u.n. or maybe already settled
[dtmc] = Kuwait is not happy and will not sign off, so Iraq is working around them to have the UN do it without Kuwait's permission
[dtmc] bigpuller ?? Possible but I am 50 50 on this
[dtmc] I am 60 40 on the GOI by next week Friday
[bigpuller] dtmc you dont think the articles were correct today
[dtmc] 60 40 on lower denoms before the end of the year providing parliament passes the necessary laws
[dtmc] bigpuller correct about what ?
[bigpuller] dtmc saying allawi was signed it and the defense minister is in by proxy
[bigpuller] signed in
[dtmc] bigpuller yes but with Iraq you learn to await them announcing things
[dtmc] look at how many things we have jumped the GUn on recently without conclusive proof
[dtmc] Obama says GOI is formed- embarrisingly not yet
[bigpuller] Urgent .. Iraqi deputy reveals Maliki granted the approval of the defense ministers of his list and one by proxy and vote on the political council of parliament Wednesday, July 27, 2011 17:13 [Baghdad - where] MP for the Iraqi List, Ahmed Jubouri for "the approval of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to give the Ministry of Defence and Minister of one of his list by proxy." He told all of Iraq [where] that "the President told the head of the list Iyad Allawi during his visit last night that the Prime Minister has agreed to assign the portfolio of the Ministry of Defense Agency to a minister of the Iraqi List, provided that the chosen is one of them until they agree on a candidate to the ministry." He added, "Talabani told Allawi, Maliki also approved the formation of the National Council for the strategic policy and be executive and vote in Parliament." He Jubouri that "Allawi expressed his willingness to attend the meeting of leaders of political blocs next Saturday after listening to these approvals by al-Maliki". http://alliraqnews.com/i ••• temid=86
[peganded] dtmc are you saying if no lower denoms til end of year, no rv til then?
[dtmc] Some say sanctions is done
[dtmc] we have been wrong on those because we jumped the gun
[dtmc] let's relax and let them announce it
[bigpuller] dtmc but will shabbs be able to hold inflation off if they stall longer and procrastinate
[dtmc] too many times they were on the brink of success and fell back
[dtmc] bigpuller yes he will do his best
[dtmc] Iraq does not have to do this to survive
[dtmc] no country should paint themselves into a corner
[bigpuller] dtmc but they have
[dtmc] They should do it to assure prudent economic strategy
[dtmc] bigpuller I will like to agree with you but Iraq will more than likely RV their currency because it is the fiscal plan as opposed to because they have to.
[redwing] dtmc arent they meeting with the council of ministers next tuesday regarding Oil and gas law?
[ssam] sorry to sneak in puller...i need to go...just wanted to thank david for dropping in, and BL thanks you as well
[bigpuller] dtmc but one also has to look at the economics of the countrya and because of their handling of things this may end up pushing them into it sooner rather than later.. they cannot rebuild or have investors if they dont change their currency i mean how long do you think investers are going to keep signing mou's
[dtmc] ssam Most Welcome
[dtmc] bigpuller Agreed they need investors
[dtmc] But the investors already use the USD
[dtmc] bigpuller They will RV Godwilling
[bigpuller] dtmc but how do you dedollarize a country by continuing that policy
[dtmc] HOWEVER we should not try painting them into a corner because we can frustrate ourselves if it does not happen our way
[dtmc] bigpuller Ah very good
[bigpuller] dtmc i agree to stay grounded.. i guess if nothing else the news is very postitive today
[dtmc] so it is fair to say for Iraq to dedollarise successfully they need to roll out the lower denominations and add value to them.
[dtmc] that is a FACT
[dtmc] so if our arguments reside with this reasoning we are on solid ground
[dtmc] supposed they put dedollarisation off till b=next year then what ? does it mean no RV till next year ?
[dtmc] bigpuller Yes very positive
[dtmc] it looks like we will have our GOI
[dtmc] but not before they announce it
[dtmc] we have rang too many bells for Iraq and they come up wanting
[double play] dtmc If the UN say the GOI is complete wouldn't that be sufficient?
[dtmc] double play ?? Obama said it. the Un congratulated them on it but it's still not done. we want it announced and in the papers.
[IrieHerb] as things stand now in I raq, it seems like it will be difficult to lure investors just from a security stand point
[girlygirl] dtmc -why would Dr shabbibi say about the lower denoms over a month ago then? there must be pressures on him about inflation...or maybe to pressure the gov for security minister? to move forward to RV?
[dtmc] IrieHerb yes and no. Westerners yes but aisia and europe, not so much. they thrive on conflict.
[redwing] dtmc --do you think if Ch. 7 is lifted the IQD will be tradeable on forex? and if it is do you believe they would show up at the current 1170 rate?
[dtmc] redwing tradeable maybe but on Forex as a major pair ???
[redwing] dtmc --if tradeable will we see 1170?
[IrieHerb] hmm, it seems like it would be marginally unsafe right now to do buisness in Iraq, at least from a westerners point of view
[dtmc] redwing ??? so I do not know
[redwing] dtmc --people could buy up that country mighty quick, imo at that rate--thanks david
[dtmc] IrieHerb We like the playing field level because we are accustomed to market risk.
[dtmc] Not much security risks
[IrieHerb] yea i suppose, i guess staying grounded is the best advice of the day
[IrieHerb] thats what BondLady always says as well
[IrieHerb] David, thanks for coming by today, I really enjoy the cc's you do and respect your opinion on this
[bigpuller] dtmc thank you so much for answering our questions today
[dtmc] Smitty10 I I think he announced it for the investors and world to stay put, he is behind
schedule but still on target. He just needs a GOI to get out of their own way.
[dtmc] bigpuller Welcome. it is my pleasure and the least I can do for the lady.
[bigpuller] dtmc so what were the four things you would like to see to make you feel comfortable that the rv would happen
[dtmc] bigpuller I am convinced it will happen
[bigpuller] dtmc oh i do as well just wondering cause you mentioned four things left to complete
[dtmc] As to when? I will like to see the lower denominations first
[dtmc] bigpuller I never held those things to be pre-requisites to an RV
[peganded] dtmc when you said you are 60/40 on lower denoms coming out by end of year, does that mean you think no rv til after that?
[bigpuller] dtmc okay i would never ask you when lol
[dtmc] I think the RV can still happen once Shabib has what he needs
[bigpuller] dtmc and that is the complete goi correct
[dtmc] bigpuller I think they can RV the currency today if shabibi has what he needs.
[bigpuller] dtmc okay do you have an idea of what shabbs might need in your opinion
[dtmc] bigpuller Parliament to pass the laws Maliki's council of ministers sent to them
[bigpuller] dtmc yes
[bigpuller] dtmc the ones from the cbi
[dtmc] bigpuller yes I think so
[bigpuller] dtmc okay thank you very much
[woodywould] bigpuller, just came back in, sorry. can this happen during Ramadan, or probably beyond? tks to U and David.
[dtmc] I think it can yes. I may have my doubts it will be this quick.
[dtmc] Beyond yes I more likely see this all happening once the L.Denoms are out
[peganded] dtmc do you believe the lower denoms will be out a few weeks before an RV?
[bigpuller] dtmc so do you think putting the lower denoms out they would have to change the rate at the same time
[dtmc] bigpuller good question
[dtmc] I honestly do not know
[bigpuller] dtmc for me i think they go hand in hand
[dtmc] I used to think so before
[bigpuller] dtmc there is so much confusion already one would think they would to not entice violence thinking they have even less money now
[dtmc] bigpuller It may as well as it may not
[bigpuller] dtmc thank you for answering all my questions and allowing me to pick your brain
[Smitty10] If there is no RV when the LDs are release...that would mean carrying a lot of cash around I would think
[redwing] dtmc --it seems that they would be carrying more cash than ever if they had to lug around $1, $5, $10, dinar notes--seems implausible not to rv--imo
[dtmc] goodevening all
[dtmc] thanks for the time and patience
[Smitty10] dtmc tyvm for coming by David
[dtmc] Smitty10 welcome
[redwing] dtmc --ty for your chat!!!!
[dtmc] redwing some value to it even at 1-1 seems logical
[redwing] dtmc --amen to one for one!!
[peganded] dtmc on one of your conf calls recently you said you believe the lower denoms will be out for weeks before we see the rv, do you not believe that anymore?
[dtmc] peganded There will be an education and transition period
[dtmc] It is possible the lower denoms may be out for 7-10 days before value is added
[dtmc] it maybe that value will be added the moment they are out
[dtmc] I do not know for sure what the order is
[dtmc] But I will just be excited to see the ldenoms that i don't mind when they put the value before or after
[peganded] dtmc would it make sense to have them out before? you would need a wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread
[bullymomma] Thank you David, it is always a pleasure to hear what you have to say
[dtmc] bullymomma welcome
[dtmc] bigpuller thank you