Andy: SWFguy... I have been in this gig, for a little over a year... I bought in on advice of a friend as most here have. and it's still easier for me to believe in an RI or Lopp...
The 400,000% increase in value I spoke of was when the decrease in value happened ti the dinar when the price hit 4000 iqd to 1 usd. It did raise in value quite a bit seen that time to 1166...
I have also thought this may be a suckers bet... and if I remember right you used to think differently...
I read and read the news, the post from all the forums. and sometimes I wonder if I should just put my holdings on ebay... Only because I still don't see it...I never really saw it... I just hope that it will happen...
I hope that Iraq will be able to fly right and pay their debt, honor their currency and make us all rich...
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But, for the life of me... it's hard to believe it will happen.
Now, yes... they did bring their currency up from a low rate of 4000 to 1 and held it at 1166 for a long time... But this is a managed hold. which make it's easy for them... and their still worthless.. So... that also makes it easy to hold at that price.
Once they bring it to the plus side it become a liability and thus is a debt that must be honored, how does anyone think it can be paid for... Oil ? Gold? ha.... thats living in a dream world... You can't buy a cup of coffee with a cup of oil... gold doesn't come out of the ground easy and in most cases is in the form of dust or incased in another stone and it's never pure...
They also don't take gold at the Piggly Wiggly... The world currency is not on a oil or gold standard... and it would not be what any country would want for it's self to be on... Right now, all currency is given their rate... no matter what you think or what someone tells me... I look at it like this...
Less is more... Thus , the less thats out... there the more it's worth... and Iraq has a lot of dinar out there.. oh yeah.... I know I'm kinda all over the place here... I tend to write the way I speak... Just pick something.. an go with it... I typed all that from my cell... Forgive the errors... LOL...Andy
SWFloridaGuy: Hey there Andy great to hear from you. I do have a couple thoughts on the matter (Andy's opinion that the IQD won't RV).
Although you bring up some good points I think you are overlooking the option of the CBI to change the peg. Harvard, Yale, Princeton and some outsourced out-of-country studies have all shown a PEP or broad based commodity peg to be Iraq's best option.
Also, oil is quickly becoming second in Iraq to gold. Early in 2012 there was a large discovery of Gold in eastern Baghdad. The last couple years have produced large quantities of gold atoms in the soil through their vast drilling operations.
They actually raised thousands of tons of dust, which was set aside for the purification and extraction process. This discovery, among others, could turn Iraq into a producer of gold more than oil. It has also will increase the prices of real estate due to the influx of gold job seekers.
As far as your comment on how I used to have a different stance on this investment, of course I did. This is a learning process for us all. I was not born with this information and like you I originally bought into this because someone fed me the hype.
Studying macroeconics and the history of large currency appreciation shocks, this last year especially, has led me to conclusions that often conflict with the hype. I've learned that much of what they say has no factual basis whatsoever.
That being said I am still VERY confident that we will see large profits from this. I just recognize that it's not a given and that neither side (Lop or RV) can prove their arguments at this point. So, in the meantime, we might as well hope for the best but be honest about the direction our research leads us even if that leads to conclusions that differ from the hype.
Although my outlook for Iraq's currency and what will happen to the notes we have is brighter than yours, I do recognize that you do not suffer from this affliction (inability to deliver the truth as you know it).
Many are saying that I encourage others to believe in all Iraqi articles. Although I do believe they have a much better record then the hypers, I absolutely do not think that anyone should blindly follow Iraqi articles.
Quite the contrary, I don't believe in most Iraqi articles actually. I do believe that the HCL, Chapter VII, permanent ministers and a power sharing GOI etc., are all great indicators of general progress though.
The only problem is the GOI and CBI has shown very poor punctuality. They like to talk about doing a lot of things. So, the best thing we could hope to see from them is that something has been finished that we can in turn confirm from other sources.
I prefer to focus on macroeconomics. If someone believes that I only focus on Iraqi articles then they've never read my posts. I was refering to studies done regarding large currency appreciation shock feasibility studies & macroeconomic theory.
Still though, they are just theories that I happen to agree with. I have no idea what path the CBI is going to take for sure. No one does but many pretend to. I've learned so much from others in the rooms and this has been a learning process for us all. All we can do is let this play out, continue to speculate and hope for the best.
Anyway, Cheers brotha and Merry Christmas.