BACKDOC: IS IT ANY WONDER THAT THE G 20 IS EXPECTED TO COME UP WITH A GLOBAL STIMULUS PLAN?
WHAT DO THEY KNOW THAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW? MMMM
FROM EVERY ANGLE YOU LOOK ON THE GLOBAL ARENA, COUNTRIES ARE DEFLATING AND DEBT LOADS ARE COMPOUNDED WITH SCENARIO!
JUST A THOUGHT FOR YOU THAT MIGHT BE ENCOURAGING AMONG THE NEGATIVE ECONOMIC NEWS; FIAT DOLLAR DENOMINATED DEBT MAY DROP 30% TO 50% COMPARED TO THE NEW DIGITAL REPLACEMENT!
CAN YOU IMAGINE 20 TRILLION IN DEBT BEING REDUCED TO ABOUT HALF JUST BECAUSE VALUE CHANGES? MMMMM
8@8, DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Citi: Risk of global recession rising
The risk of the global economy falling into a recession is rising as fundamentals remain poor, analysts at Citigroup said in a note Wednesday.
"We are currently in a highly precarious environment for global growth and asset markets after two to three years of relative calm," Citigroup said, noting that global growth was "unusually weak" in the fourth quarter at around 2.0 percent on-year.
"The most recent deterioration in the global outlook is due to a moderate worsening in the prospects for the advanced economies, a large increase in the uncertainty about the advanced economies' outlook (notably for the U.S.) and a tightening in financial conditions everywhere," the bank said.
At the same time, fundamentals remain poor, including concerns about a structural and cyclical slowdown in China and its "unsustainable" currency regime, excessive leverage and rising regional risks, such as the risk the U.K. may exit the European Union, it said.
To be sure, Citigroup is defining a global recession as growth below 2 percent, differing significantly from the usual requirement of gross domestic product (GDP) falling for two consecutive quarters.
The bank also doesn't expect a global recession by any definition as its base case, forecasting global growth at 2.5 percent this year, based on official statistics, and around 2.2 percent, if adjusting for the possibility of Chinese data not being measured accurately.
Citi's estimates are significantly below the International Monetary Fund's forecast for 3.4 percent global growth this year, up from its 3.1 percent expectation for 2015. However, the IMF did warn Wednesday that it might cut its forecast for 2016.
Citigroup is particularly concerned about U.S. economic growth.
"Should the U.S. economy falter, it would be difficult to identify any major economy that could be the growth engine for the world in the near-term," it said, noting that China's growth is slowing.
U.S. growth doesn't need to slow much for the global economic outlook to darken, Citigroup said.
"A material slowdown in the U.S., even short of a recession, would still be a major headwind for the world economy: at this point, it could make a global recession according to our definition almost unavoidable," it said. "The damage to global growth conditions would come from three sources: deteriorating financial conditions globally, weaker demand from the U.S. and weakening (consumer and business) sentiment more broadly (through contagion)."
It sees another concern: Major central banks may not step up.
"Prior periods of serious economic weakness elicited major policy responses," it said, citing quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). "No such major stimulus may be forthcoming any time soon during the current period of weakness."
That may exacerbate the growth risks, Citigroup said.
"Currently, there are doubts about the prospects for an effective policy response in the event of a downturn in many economies, which may make households, businesses and investors more cautious about the outlook," it said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/25/citi-ris ... ising.html
BACKDOC: THE MARKET WILL BE LIKE A BEAUTIFUL HOT AIR BALLOON COMING DOWN SLOWLY!
SOMETIME SOON, WHEN THESE NEW ASSET BACKED CURRENCIES ACTUALLY LAUNCH,THE MARKET WILL BEGIN TO UNDERSTAND THE NEW REALITY!
ASSET PRICES WILL HAVE TO REFLECT THE NEW INCREASED VALUE OF THESE NEW CURRENCIES!
COMPANIES WILL BECOME SECURITIZED OR WILL GO UNDER TO BE BOUGHT UP BY LARGER RIVALS!
JUST LIKE IN THE OIL INDUSTRY, THE LOWEST EXTRACTION COST WINS.
HERE THE LOWEST DEBT WINS!
AS INTEREST RATES RISE COMPANIES STRUGGLING WITH DEBT WILL EITHER HAVE TO GROW AND BE MORE PROFITABLE OR GO UNDER!
WITH DEBT BEING THE HIGHEST IN HISTORY, THESE WILL BE CHALLENGING TIMES FOR THE MARKETS!
YOU MY FRIENDS, WILL BE SITTING IN THE CAT BIRD SEAT WITH NEWLY APPRECIATED ASSETS, FROM YOUR ASSET BACKED CURRENCY WHICH WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY!
IF YOU ARE WISE, YOU MAY CHOOSE TO BE VERY SELECTIVE IN BUYING COMPANIES THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT VALUE BUT SCREWED IN TAKING ON TOO MUCH DEBT.
THAT'S A GREAT WAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE AND GAIN CONTROL.
FINDING COMPANIES THAT WILL SURVIVE IN THE GLOBAL NEW REALITY WILL BE EXCITING!
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
This is 'the best year to sell rallies ever’: Trader
The S&P 500 may have rebounded considerably from the lows hit two weeks prior, but the bulls shouldn't become too excited yet, according to macroeconomic trader and strategist Boris Schlossberg.
"I continue to think this year is going to be the best year to sell rallies ever," Schlossberg said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "Every rally is going to be a fake out."
After several great years for stocks and a flat 2015, "the chickens are coming home to roost," he said.
First of all, the stock market "is just due" for a poor year after all the good times, BK Asset Management's chief FX strategist told CNBC in a phone interview.
On top of that, U.S. profits have fallen, and Schlossberg sees them dropping even further due to slow demand growth. "The transmission mechanism from jobs to wages to spending is simply not taking place," he said.
And that's even before one considers the many global risk factors, which most notably include dramatically slowing economic growth in China.
"It all just puts us in a pretty vulnerable position, as far as equities go," Schlossberg said. "Whatever hope we have is going to be extinguished by the end of the year."
However, Stifel Nicolaus portfolio manager Chad Morganlander takes the other side. Morganlander believes that the market has begun to price in slowing global growth, meaning that there may be some values in equities.
"At this point we would start layering on risk," he said Wednesday on CNBC. "Valuations are starting to make sense."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/24/this-is- ... rader.html
BACKDOC: THIS IS SO TRUE AS WE SEE IRAQ PARTNER WITH IRAN NOT TO MENTION THEIR OWN INTERNAL GROWTH! DOC IMO
Walkingstick: Calls for investing in mineral wealth in Iraq
BAGHDAD / obelisk: According to a member of the Presidency of the Council of Representatives, Hamoudi, Thursday, on the need to take advantage of the mineral wealth in Iraq being can supply the national economy, the riches of equivalent oil imports.
This came during a visit, a member of the Presidency of the Council of Representatives, to the Ministry of Industry and Minerals and Geological Survey accompanied by Industry Minister Mohammed al-Darraji, according to a statement to the media office.
A member of the Presidium of the parliament, said that "the mineral wealth of the country, whether discovered or that still exist under the ground, is a very large value, you may draw what comes from oil," calling for "the development of the production of that wealth and investment and export about a scientific and effective."
He warned Hammoudi, of "the existence of efforts by malicious hidden and Iyad to destroy all locally produced from the industry, minerals, agriculture and others," and urged international companies to "promote investments in the mining sector in Iraq, especially the presence of more than 14 investment opportunity in this field."
The First Deputy Speaker of Parliament, said there was "a serious interest for the development of mining projects and the extraction of raw materials, research and geological trend towards production and investment to different countries, companies and the possibility of allocating a share of the profits when production and export, to maintain that detects metal within its territory."
The statement quoted the minister of industry and minerals, thanks and appreciation for "member of the Presidium of Parliament supporting the domestic industry initiative and the various visits that are guaranteed by the initiative," noting that "the visit and his support for the minerals sector, but emphasizes that the banner of supporting the Iraqi industry is pregnant and this fact does not differ by two."
The statement also "Hamoudi met with Angels Geological Survey (USGS), in the presence of the Minister of Industry and Minerals, and stressed the need to review and cancel the decision of 30 for the year 2003 that has been applied in the absence of the legislative authority in 2003 where he was which prevent the production and export of local products outside the country," stressing the importance of "activating and supporting decisions for agricultural and industrial products and in the possession of the State Council."
http://almasalah.com/ar/news/70296/%D8% ... %81%D9%8A-
BACKDOC: THE TROUBLED WATER WILL BE IN FIAT CURRENCIES AS EVRY COUNTRY WANTS TO DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCY OVER ANOTHER TO GAIN A TRADE ADVANTAGE WHILE THE UNIVERSAL CURRENCY CONTINUES TO CAUSE DEFLATION FOR ALL CURRENCIES!
THE FIAT WORLD WILL NOT END WELL LIKELY BY MID YEAR, BUT WHAT FOLLOWS IT WILL BE SOLID ASSET BACKED AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DEVALUE LIKE THE PREVIOUS GAME!
THE BATTLE LINES WILL BE DRAWN OVER TRADE, SHIPPING, AND PURCHASING POWER!
WHY ELSE WOULD THEY BE ALL ABOUT THE TPP AND OTHER TRADE DEALS? THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE CHEATING IN THAT ARENA. REAL COMPETITION WILL BEGIN BASED ON THE NEW REALITY NOT BY DEVALUING CURRENCIES TO CHEAT!
SLAP! THAT'S WHY THE BUSINESS MAN MR. TRUMP GETS MAD WHEN HE TALKS ABOUT CHINA!
Dnari131: Bloomberg MARKETS
The World's Major Currencies Have Lost a Fundamental Anchor
An unmooring in markets that may be contributing to global nervousness.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... tal-anchor
NoKaOi : Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero
BACKDOC: UNFORTUNATELY WE HAVE ALREADY ENTERED A BEAR MARKET OFFICIALLY!
NOW THE RECESSION WORD IS RISING. FOUR STATES IN THE U.S. ARE ALREADY THERE AS PREVIOUS ARTICLES STATE! DOC IMO