Backdoc » September 11th, 2015, 12:47 am
NOW WE FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE EVIDENCE COMING MAINSTREAM ON WHAT I SHARED MONTHS AGO WITH YOU!
WHY HAVE WE NOT HEARD A THING FOR MONTHS ON THIS?
WHY WERE THERE NO ARTICLES WRITTEN IN THE U.S. WHEN I TOLD YOU THAT THE BUDGET WAS PASSED? MMMMM
IMO THIS WAS TO BE SILENT BY BOTH PARTIES AND THE NEWS MEDIA! WHY? WHY ALL THE SECRETIVE AVOIDANCE! MMMM
WELL, I TOLD YOU THAT AS WE MOVE TO AN ASSET BACKED SYSTEM WE CAN'T JUST PRINT MONEY ANYMORE!
THE VALUE OF THE NEW DOLLAR WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES!
CHANGE MUST OCCUR!
A GOVT. SHUTDOWN SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE COVER FOR A LOOKIE LOOKIE OVER HERE WHILE SOMETHING MORE IMPORTANT GOES ON THAT SHOULD NOT BE OBVIOUS OR LOOKED AT!
" WELCOME TO "THE MAIN EVENT"! DOC IMO
ThunderHawk: Backdoc Alert
A ‘perfect storm’ is brewing as budget battle looms
The Republican-controlled Congress has been back from August recess for one full day and lawmakers already seemed overwhelmed by the slate of problems they left unresolved before adjourning.
The GOP returned to Washington hoping to make short work of a resolution of disapproval on the Iran nuclear deal before moving on to the equally pressing issue of working out a measure to fund the government and avoid a shutdown.
But House Republicans have revolted against the leadership’s plan, arguing the agreement’s 60-day congressional review period hasn’t started yet because the Obama administration hasn’t shared the details of so-called “side deals” between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Their Senate counterparts have had trouble hiding their disbelief over the unforeseen tactic.
“As I understand the law, once September 17 passes is it not the case that the president will take the view that he is free to go forward” and lift economic sanctions on Iran, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said during a Capitol Hill press conference.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Corker (R-TN) said “the best way to express concerns about the documents, but also concerns about the deal itself, is to vote to disapprove the deal and to go forward in that manner. That is the best way I believe at this moment for us to express our disapproval.”
Ultimately, House leadership worked out a tenuous compromise where members will cast a series of votes related to the Iran compact, including a resolution of approval. The proposal is sure to fail but the move is designed to force Democrats to abandon the White House and deliver another political embarrassment to President Obama.
Still, the intraparty warfare doesn’t bode well for lawmakers to pass a bill to fund the government by October 1 and prevent a shutdown.
Earlier Wednesday, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) dismissed a question about when he would bring up a “clean” continuing resolution to keep the government running.
“I have not made any decisions on when we would move the CR,” he said during a press conference following a meeting of all Republican members, referring to the continuing resolution.
Unlike the bewildering debate over how to proceed on the Iran deal, the GOP split over spending has been building for a while.
Conservatives want any funding bill to cut off millions in federal dollars for Planned Parenthood after hidden camera videos showed organization officials discussing the sale of fetal tissue. On Tuesday a sizeable group of rank-and-file members said they wouldn’t back any spending bill that contains money for Planned Parenthood.
Yet GOP leaders and other senior Republicans, like House Appropriations Committee chair Hal Rogers (R-KY), have shown no appetite for forcing another government shutdown.
Boehner’s speakership could be on the line, with members of the sizeable House Freedom Caucus signaling that they are waiting to see how leaders handle their concerns before possibly launching a coup for the gavel.
Leadership hopes to mollify them and others by holding a series of listening sessions for members to air their grievances about the spending impasse and propose solutions.
Meanwhile, Democrats contend now is the time for Republicans to finally sit down at the negotiating table and work out a compromise spending bill as well as the other fiscal matters on the horizon.
“On any CR, we have to make sure it’s at the right length. We know we’re going to have to have a short CR, but it should be short enough that we don’t have to keep coming back for debt ceiling, tax extenders. We should do it all at once,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) told reporters. “We need to make sure that there is something in the way of a negotiation. It’s not going to happen just because they want it to happen.”
Democrats have long objected to a maneuver contained in the GOP budget blueprint that funneled an additional $38 billion into the Defense Department’s war fund that would allow the agency to skirt budget caps. They want a deal that would lift the caps across the federal government, not just for the Pentagon.
“A perfect storm is out there brewing,” according to Reid. “I talked to [Treasury Secretary] Jack Lew a week ago. He doesn’t know how long the government has money left to continue paying its bills. It’s not a real long time. He said after the receipts come in for September, he’ll have a better idea, but that’s a ways from now.”
When asked if he had been contacted by Republicans about such talks, Reid replied: “We’ve heard nothing, zero.”
Lew: Raise debt limit to stop 'unnecessary risks'
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Thursday reaffirmed his view that the government could stay funded by extraordinary measures through late October, but urged Congress to raise the borrowing limit and avoid unnecessary turmoil.
In a letter, Lew noted that the Treasury will reach its borrowing capacity once it exhausts emergency options. The department has implemented various measures, such as suspension of certain investments, to pay government bills ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline to extend spending authority.
"In the past, failure to raise the debt limit in a timely manner has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence, financial markets and the credit rating of the United States. To avoid these unnecessary risks, I respectfully urge Congress to raise the debt limit as soon as possible," Lew wrote.
The government was previously shut down in 2013 amid attempts to defund the Affordable Care Act. An impasse over Republican attempts to block Planned Parenthood funding has raised concerns about the government's spending authority expiring again.
This week, Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research contended in a note that a government shutdown "appears nearly as likely as not." However, it said the incident may only have a "modest" effect on markets.
VIDEO: Expect pre-weekend caution after head fake rally
Traders head into Friday cautious about next week's Fed meeting and wary of any attempts by the market to rally.
Stocks closed higher Thursday but well off earlier highs. The S&P 500 ended up a half percent at 1,952, after an earlier 1.2 percent move higher, and the Dow added 76 points to 16,330.
"Everyone is trying to figure out where the market is comfortable," said Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com. "Typically after two to six weeks of making a dramatic low, it's likely you revisit it. I think traders are a little skeptical of trying to buy the dip. Why be a hero here? On the flip side, we're still not falling apart so we do get these rallies that push the shorts back."
He said he expects the S&P 500 to test the 1,867 low set Aug. 24 when the market plunged. "Traders are watching the 1,915 to 1,935 area (on the S&P). If we get a close below that, it will give some confidence that we do get down to test that 1,867 area and get that out of the way."
Redler said he is now looking to the Fed's meeting next week as a potential event that could set the direction for trading. The markets are split on when the central bank will raise rates, with the fed funds futures showing a low chance for a move in September but many forecasters still seeing a hike.
"I think the market would rather have liftoff than put off. I think they would have been prepared for liftoff," Redler said. "One thing also is that the market is vulnerable in late September, early October which is when real bottoms have been put in." Redler noted that it will be a negative when corporate stock-buying programs are put on hold starting in the next week for a blackout period ahead of the next earnings reporting season in October.
Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also expects the market to test its August low, sooner or later. He said he is cautioning clients that it is too early for aggressive buying and that the market could actually see a 20 percent decline peak to trough. The S&P could then possibly fall to the 1,740 area.
"There was a significant breakdown in August. The market fell from an eight-month topping pattern and is going to take more than a couple of weeks to recover from that," said Wald.
"Rate hike or not, we think this volatility continues, and there's going to be more work needed. If we do see a fourth-quarter rally, I think we're capped at 2,050 on the upside, and it's possible we do test the lows from August and move even lower than that. Even if you make the case for no economic recession, that the data is fine, it would be normal to see some cyclical pause to reset. It's been six years of market gains. We think we're due for a sideways market for the next few months."
Wald said stocks are also vulnerable to seasonal factors, with September often a weak month for equities. "It's worse with weakness coming into it, when you're already below the 200–day moving average," he said.
"These little bounce attempts face a lot of resistance. There's no signs of a bottom here yet," he said.
Friday's data includes PPI producer inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.
Asian stocks sink on Fed rate hike expectations
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Asian stock markets were weaker Thursday after Wall Street fell following a strong U.S. job ads report that added to the case for the Fed's first rate hike in years.
KEEPING SCORE: Japan's Nikkei 225 sagged 2.9 percent to 18,234.67 one day after surging 7.7 percent in its biggest gain since October 2008. South Korea's Kospi edged down 0.1 percent to 1,931.98. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 2.2 percent to 21,638.25 and China's Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.1 percent to 3,207.37. Stocks in Australia and Southeast Asia were also lower.
ANALYST'S TAKE: "Just when you thought risk sentiment is on the mend, it unceremoniously crumbles in the U.S. markets," said Bernard Aw, a market strategist at IG. "This is going to deal a blow to Asia today. The risk-on mode is likely to give way to yet another cautious trading session or worse."
FED WATCH: A report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed that U.S. employers advertised the most jobs in the 15 years that the government has tracked the data. Job openings soared 8 percent to 5.75 million in July, adding to evidence that hiring remains strong and may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Ultra-low interest rates have been a boon for stock markets for several years.
WALL STREET: U.S. stock markets closed lower on Wednesday after a rally in the morning, as jobs data raised chances of the Fed rate hike. The Dow ended 1.5 percent lower at 16,253.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 0.8 percent to 1,942.04. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.2 percent to 4,756.53.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude fell 56 cents to $43.59 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.79 to close at $44.15 a barrel on Wednesday in New York. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, lost 71 cents to $46.87 in London.
CURRENCIES: The U.S. dollar rose to 120.37 yen from 120.28 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1217 from $1.1219.
VIDEO: Americans losing confidence in the economy: Fannie Mae
A new index by one of the most influential institutions in the housing market suggests people are increasingly worried about the economy.
The Fannie Mae (FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) was formally launched earlier this week as an predictive indicator of the housing market’s next move. In the last couple of months, the index dropped to 80.8 from its record high of 84.7 set back in June. However, it remains higher than it was a year ago and has stayed within a five-point range since September 2014.
The agency attributes the drop to concerns over the economy. “The folks thinking it’s on the wrong track have increased significantly,” said Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. “There’s something going on at the household level that’s reducing their confidence.”
Fannie Mae, which provided about $144 billion in liquidity into the mortgage market, has been surveying roughly 1,000 people every month for nearly half a decade. The HPSI is based on responses to questions covering the timing of buying and selling a home, the direction of home prices and mortgage rates, personal job prospects, and household income. The net percentage of each question is then summed to compose the index.
Only 32% of those surveyed in August said the economy is headed on the right track, while 58% said it was going the wrong way. In June, those numbers were 39% and 51%, respectively.
Nonetheless, Duncan remains positive on the housing sector, a view that appears to be in line with the equity market. While the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down 5% so far this year, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 8% while the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has gained 9%.
“We’re still on that slow and steady improvement track,” he said. “We’ve done a lot of demographic work that suggests a normal level of housing construction – multifamily, single-family, and manufactured housing – in a given year would be about 1.5 million units. This year, it looks like we’ll do about 1.1 million units. So on the supply side, we’re still well short of what demographics would suggest.”
Duncan expects construction will rise, particularly with multifamily buildings, to meet pent-up demand.
“Rents are now coming up relative to sales prices and there is some pressure to start seeing construction on the single-family side as well,” he said.