BACKDOC: I FOR ONE AM WATCHING THE EU AND CHINA ,SINCE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A BREAKING POINT FIRST!
THERE WILL NEED TO BE A DEBT WRITE DOWN GLOBALLY OR THERE WILL BE A SOME TYPE OF COLLAPSE POSSIBLY AS SOON AS MID YEAR BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS PROBLEM! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: AA doom-mongers claim petrol price will soar with a Brexit: Group says cost of a litre will go up by 19p within days of a vote to leave
AA said petrol costs could rise by 18.7p a litre 'within days' of Brexit vote
They claimed value of pound could fall by 20% while oil prices could treble
Critics said motoring group was engaging in 'ill-informed exaggerations'
The AA has been branded a 'doom merchant' for claiming petrol prices would soar by £500 a year per family if Britain leaves the EU.
The motoring group joined the Europe debate by saying costs at the pumps could rise by 18.7p a litre 'within days' of a Brexit vote.
In a 'worst case scenario', they claimed the value of the pound could tumble by 20 per cent if Britain goes it alone, at the same time as oil prices – which are at a long-term low – could treble.
AA president Edmund King said the group does not 'take a view as to whether the UK should leave the EU' but merely wanted to highlight a potentially 'significant hike' in petrol prices. But other experts, including the RAC, cast doubt on the figures, saying there was little reason to think prices would change dramatically even if the pound did fall in value.
Britain has some of the highest prices at the pump in Europe because taxes – VAT and fuel duty – make up more than 70 per cent of the cost of a litre.
Howard Cox, founder of FairFuelUK which campaigns for lower tax on petrol prices, said the AA was engaging in 'ill-informed exaggerations to scare drivers about Brexit'.
He added: 'Despite the UK already having the most punitive fuel duty levels in the EU, any thought that pump prices would rise further if Brexit became a reality is a red herring. Being in or out of the EU should not be a factor for fairer pump pricing and lower fuel taxation on 37million UK drivers.
'If the pound does not crash, contrary to the pro-EU doom merchants predicting this will happen, and oil remains low due to over production, then it will still be down to George Osborne as to what we pay at the pumps.'
Simon Williams, of the RAC, said motorists are seeing petrol and diesel under £1 at the cheapest retailers, and prices could remain low. He added: 'The impact on fuel prices of Britain exiting is not likely to be as dramatic as motorists might be led to think.'
The AA used figures from bank Goldman Sachs, which warn the pound could plummet if Britain leaves the EU.
Their analysis suggests a 20 per cent drop in sterling value, plus a three-fold hike in the oil price, would add an extra 6.2p to a litre of petrol.
For a family with two 55-litre tank cars, this would mean spending an extra £494 a year. Even without a rise in oil prices, they said the drop in value of the pound could lead to a £137-a-year rise.
Mr King said: 'We don't take a view as to whether the UK should leave the EU as that is up to the people to decide in a referendum.
'However, even before the referendum vote, it seems that financial reports suggest leaving the European community could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound which in turn could hit pump prices within days.'
A spokesman for Vote Leave attacked the Goldman figures saying: 'These are ludicrous claims based on the predictions by the same people who said the roof would fall in on the economy if we didn't join the euro.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... leave.html
BACKDOC: MONTHS AGO I WARNED YOU ABOUT THE POUND MAY DEVALUE AND IT HAS DONE JUST THAT BUT A BREXIT THEY SAY, MAY TAKE AN EVEN GREATER HIT!
FINDING OUR WAY TO THE NEW GLOBAL REALITY VALUE MAY BE MESSY!
WITH ASSET BACKED CURRENCIES WAITING IN THE WINGS, WILL THEY RUN THIS MOTOR TILL SHE BLOWS? MMMMM
Thunderhawk: Bracing for ‘Brexit’: Traders Get Defensive on British Pound
As U.K. weighs leaving EU, cost soars for options that protect investors from a big move in the pound
Demand is spiking for contracts that protect investors from a big move in the British pound this summer—an indication that traders are girding for the aftermath of a referendum on the U.K.’s membership in the European Union.
While wider markets have yet to show a clear reaction to the possibility of a U.K. exit, analysts increasingly talk of its potential as a political risk that could affect a host of assets, from gold to British exporters and high-end London real estate.
The cost of options on the pound, by one measure, has in recent days hit its most extreme level since Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Implied volatility on six-month euro-sterling options jumped to just over 12% on Thursday, its highest level since late 2011. That is up from a recent low of 8.4% in mid-December, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Investors are mainly using these options to hedge against a fall by the pound. The relative cost of buying protection against a falling pound, as opposed to the currency rising, is at its highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008, according to Hamish Pepper, a currency strategist at Barclays.
The move comes as U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron seeks to clinch a final deal resetting his country’s relationship with the EU. An agreement this week would pave the way for a vote on Britain’s EU membership in late June, U.K. government officials have said.
“Irrespective of the twists and turns of the debate, uncertainty over the outcome is likely to weigh on U.K. markets for a good few months yet,” said Mike Amey, head of sterling portfolios at Pacific Investment Management Co.
Investors piled into currency options ahead of Scotland’s referendum on its membership of the U.K. in 2014. That referendum hit sterling and caused a wobble in the shares of companies based in Scotland, such as insurer Standard Life PLC. In the end, Scottish voters elected to stay in the U.K., and the pound and stocks bounced back.
‘You’re not seeing a lot of pressure in markets other than on the currency.’
Polls indicate the British population is divided over EU membership. Most investors say the U.K. is likely to stay in the EU, but acknowledge that nervousness over the vote is likely to weigh on markets in coming months.
Pimco puts the chance of a British exit as high as 40%, based on neither option taking a decisive lead in opinion polls.
Uncertainty over whether the U.K. will vote to leave—a move sometimes referred to as a “Brexit”—already has contributed to a slide in the pound this year against other major currencies.
The pound was up 0.5% on the day against the euro in late New York trading Thursday, but it remains down 4.9% against the single currency so far this year.
“Uncertainty is the word that seems to encapsulate everything with respect to Brexit,” said Charlie Diebel, head of rates at Aviva Investors. “You’re not seeing a lot of pressure in markets other than on the currency.”
That is mainly because it isn’t obvious how other asset classes will react following a referendum, investors say. For instance, some investors think an “out” vote would actually benefit U.K. government bonds as the Bank of England would be unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future. Higher interest rates drive up government-bond yields, which rise as prices fall.
For the moment, selling the pound remains the simplest way for investors to express a negative view on the U.K. But as the countdown to the referendum begins, analysts are increasingly looking at what assets will be affected.
Topping most lists is London’s property market. London house prices are among the most expensive in the world, in part due to overseas demand and immigration, and will be susceptible to price falls if Britain leaves the EU.
Gold also may benefit as the potential for a U.K. exit adds to current political and monetary risks that can push money into the haven asset.
If Mr. Cameron fails to reach a deal, “this will definitely lead to higher gold demand,” said Daniel Briesemann, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank AG.
In equity markets, U.K. companies with significant European activities also could be hit if access to Britain’s biggest trading partner is affected.
For markets, though, it’s not the divorce that matters, said Pimco’s Mr. Amey. It’s the nastiness of the breakup. The aftereffects of “a confrontational separation where the two sides act as if in an unpleasant divorce” could be long-lasting, he said.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/currency-tr ... 1455809711
Thunderhawk: ALERT - ALERT – ALERT JUST FOUND ANOTHER HUGE BURGER EAT THIS!!!!
BACKDOC: AND NOW FOR THE CHERRY ON TOP OF YOUR BURGER THUNDER!
LETS GET DIGITAL,DIGITAL! I WANNA GET DIGITAL, LETS GET INTO DIGITAL! HEE HEE
TPP IS ALL ABOUT CONTROL AND SPREADING THE WEALTH AROUND THE GLOBE!
US trade chief discusses TPP, unveils report on digital economy
Globalization has lifted more than one billion people out of extreme poverty, but as inequality and barriers to trade remain worldwide, improved trade standards are needed and the Trans-Pacific Partnership promises to be a primary conduit of those standards, America’s top trade official told a Stanford audience on Tuesday.
Ambassador Michael Froman, the U.S. Trade Representative, spoke of the merits of the multilateral trade agreement, known as the ‘TPP,’ in a speech given at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).
The TPP seeks to liberalize trade and investment between 12 Pacific Rim countries. Signed earlier this month, the document now faces the path to ratification through its members.
“In today’s rapidly globalizing world, the alternative to the TPP is not the status quo,” Froman told nearly one hundred affiliates and guests at the Bechtel Conference Center.
Froman cited efforts by various countries to build up alternative frameworks that promote free trade, but said they miss some components of stability and longevity that the TPP offers. For example, China’s 'one belt, one road' initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a negotiation between 16 Asian countries.
The TPP would serve as an important benchmark for countries seeking to expand economic gains from trade and to level up on common “rules of the road.” He said increase in exports to the United States alone is estimated at $350 billion a year.
“Smart trade agreements like the TPP are how we shape globalization the right way,” Froman said with a call for continued U.S. leadership on the matter.
President Obama has been a strong advocate of the agreement, in line with the administration’s ‘rebalance to Asia’ strategy. The rebalance is a regional strategy that aims to recognize the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region to U.S. national interests.
Successful passage of the TPP will reassure allies in the region of American staying power, he said.
Countries outside of the TPP have begun to express interest in becoming a party to the agreement. South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia are among them. Application to join the TPP is now closed, but we can “expect over time” that its membership would grow, he said.
At a 2013 conference, FSI scholars examined the potential impact on Taiwan should it seek membership. Outcomes from the conference are published in this report.
Froman said the TPP supports “commerce without borders” among key sectors in the United States, in particular, those found in and around Silicon Valley.
“No state stands to benefit more from the TPP than California,” he said.
Froman announced the release of a report that details TPP provisions focused exclusively on technology and intellectual property.
The event was hosted by the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative in association with FSI, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. The Initiative aims to facilitate constructive interaction between academic and governmental experts on security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region.
http://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/news/us-t ... al-economy
BACKDOC: IT SEEMS THAT THE US MAY BE THE ONLY PRODUCER THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT RIG COUNT DROPS! HOPEFULLY THEY WILL FIGURE IT OUT QUICKLY! DOC IMO
PappaJ: DOC, LOOKS TO ME THAT THE OVER SUPPLY OF OIL IS INTENTIONAL TO BUILD NARRATIVE ON THE SECRETIVE TPP PRICE LINE !
THERE MAY BE RIG COUNT DROPS CAUSE FRACKING IS EXPENSIVE 55.00 PLUS PER BARREL, SOOO IRAN AND IRAQ CAN GET SWEET CRUDE FOR UNDER 10.00 PER BARREL==== NEW MATH!!!!!
BTW DOC THERE ARE LOTS OF WELLS THAT HAVE JUST SIMPLY BEEN CAPPED--- US CAN GET TO IT QUICKLY IF THINGS GET STUPIDER IN THE ME. PJ
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Oil prices fall on oversupply concerns after US crude stocks hit record
Oil futures fell in Asian trade on Friday as a record build in U.S. crude stocks stoked concerns about global oversupply, outweighing moves by oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia to cap oil output.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, to a peak of 504.1 million barrels, the third week of record highs in the past month, data from the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Thursday.
That came as Iraq's oil minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on Thursday that talks would continue between OPEC and non-OPEC members to find ways to restore "normal" oil prices following a meeting on Wednesday.
"The market is expecting continuing inventory builds," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Japan's Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.
"Key to any deal (to cap production) is Iran. But Iran has been clear, saying it wants to get back to its pre-sanctions (production) level," Nunan added.
"Everything is pointing to the end of this year (before there is an agreement) when Iran gets to 4 million barrels per day. By that time the pain will be so great everybody will come to the table (to agree output caps)," Nunan said.
A combination of increased global oil demand of between 1-2 million barrels per day, production cutbacks by non-OPEC members and the deal by producers to cap output could lead oil prices to climb to around $40 a barrel by year-end, Nunan said.
Brent futures had fallen 38 cents to $33.90 a barrel as of 0359 GMT, after ending the previous session down 22 cents.
U.S. crude had slipped 32 cents to $30.45 a barrel, after settling up 11 cents the session before.
The fall in oil prices hit Asian shares which slipped from near three-week highs on Friday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell more than 0.8 percent, but gains in previous sessions left it up 4 percent for the week.
Oil prices rose more than 14 percent in the three days to Thursday after Saudi Arabia and Russia, supported by other producers including Venezuela and Iraq, moved to freeze oil output at January's levels. Iran endorsed the plan without commitment on Wednesday,
If approved, it would be the first such deal in 15 years between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members.
Moves to curb output growth come as Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell by more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to almost 7.49 million bpd in December compared with the previous month, official data showed on Thursday.
"The agreement has value in restricting major producers from adding incremental barrels to a saturated marketplace. However, it does little to correct the existing imbalance between global crude supply and demand," said BMI Research in a note on Friday.
China's crude oil and liquids production is set to decrease at an average rate of 1.8 percent over the next two years as sustained weakness in oil prices prompt the country's largest producers to reduce upstream spending and disengage from high-production, BMI said in a separate note on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-globa ... SKCN0VS00Z
PAPPA-J's two cents worth!!!
FAMILY THERE ARE DEFINITE REASONS THAT DOC, THUNDER AND I HAVE GONE TO WORK LOOKING BEYOND IRAQ!
1. FRANK AND TEAMS BREAK IT DOWN AND SPOON FEED YOU WEEKLY CONCERNING IRAQ===THERE IS NOTHING NOTEWORTHY TO HELP YOU THAT WE CAN ADD FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ANALYSIS !
WHY DO YOU THINK F26 DOESN'T WANT TO TALK TO YOU WHEN THERE IS NO POSTING =====CAUSE IT IS THE ONLY WAY THERE IS FOR THEM TO GAUGE YOUR INVESTMENT IN THE PROCESS =====
THERE IS ALWAYS A TIME FOR THE CHILD TO LEARN TO EAT FOR THEMSELVES FROM BEING ON MILK TO SOLID FOOD===== IF YOU DO NOT TRANSITION YOU ARE GOING TO WAIST THE GIFT THAT FATHER IS PRESENTING YOU WITH=====
REREAD THE PARABLE OF THE TALENTS!!!!!! SEE WHAT OUR FATHER EXPECTS OF YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2. WHY DO THE------- THREE MUSKETEERS------- DO WHAT WE DO ? DOC JUST TOLD YOU IN A POST HERE IT IS!!!!!
" WE HAVE A SERIOUS ADVANTAGE KNOWING WE ARE IN A TRANSITION TO THE NEW REALITY! TO THINK WE KNOW HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT WOULD BE FOOLISH FOR SURE.
WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT EVERYTHING IS IN ITS TRANSITION TO DIGITAL! I'M SO THANKFUL FOR MY KTFA FAMILY TO SHARE THE PROCESS WITH! TRULY WHAT WE ARE PART OF IS A BIGGER GLOBAL PICTURE!
WITHOUT THE DINAR FOR FINANCIAL HOPE I WOULD BE VERY DISMAYED!
INSTEAD I FEEL A PEACE I CAN'T EXPLAIN! I HOPE WE CAN ALL JUST LAY OUR STRESS DOWN AND FOLLOW THE PROCESS TO THE END! THANKS FRANK ,DELTA, WALKINGSTICK,AND ITEAM FOR CREATING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO GROW UP TOGETHER IN THIS GLOBAL ADVENTURE!"
SO YOU SEE WE WORK IN A SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP!!!
THE FOCUS FOR ALL THESE YEARS HAS BEEN ON IRAQ WHILE THE WHOLE TIME OTHER THINGS ARE OCCURRING, FAMILY IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE REVALUE OF A FEW CURRENCIES
IT IS ABOUT TIGHTENING CONTROL OVER POWER AND MONEY WORLD WIDE AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE MEADED OUT ACTIONS THAT WE ARE SEEING IN IRAQ RIGHT NOW ARE THE SQUIRREL !!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOKIE , LOOKIE AT IRAQ WHILE WE DO ALL OF THIS OTHER STUFF THAT WE DON'T WANT YOU TO SEE === TO PARAPHRASE THE CHURCH LADY ===ISN'T THAT SPECIAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DOC IS CORRECT IMO THAT WE HAVE A SERIOUS ADVANTAGE IN UNDERSTANDING THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE NEW GLOBAL REALITY------ PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING
,IF YOU GO BACK OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS OR SO AND LOOK AT THE THINGS YOU HAVE BEEN TOLD IN DOC'S POSTS YOU WILL YOU THE THINGS THAT YOU WERE TOLD ARE NOW JUST SHOWING UP IN THE MEDIA---
IN OTHER WORDS THERE ARE PATTERNS THAT ARE USED THAT FOLLOW LOGICAL ACTION SEQUENCES ====== DIG IN STUDY THEM !!!
F26 HAS BEEN LEADING YOU DOWN THIS PATH TO GROW AND TO MATURE ,JUST AS THE MUSKETEERS ARE DOING WITH THIS OTHER GLOBAL INFO !!
REMEMBER WHAT HILLARY SAID ABOUT INVESTMENT IN IRAQ--- THERE WAS A TIME FRAME SHE SAID IF YOU WAIT PAST THIS TIME IT WILL BE TO LATE TO INVEST IN IRAQ-----
SAME APPLIES WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL INFO---
IF YOU DON'T TAKE IT SERIOUSLY NOW TO UNDERSTAND IT=== 6 MONTHS PAST THE RV WILL PUT YOU WAY BEHIND THE CURVE AND 2 YEARS WILL PUT YOU OUT OF THE GAME
TO CREATE YOUR OWN POSITION OF STRENGTH YOU WILL SUPPORTING OTHERS POSITIONS FOR CRUMBS!!!! IMO