BACKDOC: SCREAMS OF A RATE CHANGE! (see article below) REMEMBER IRAQ LAUNCHED ON THE 8TH AS WE SAW SO START WATCHING CLOSELY ON THE 22ND!
WITH THE STOCK MARKET PUTTING A HOLD ON INCOMING INTERNATIONAL TRADES WE CONTINUE TO SEE SUPPORTIVE EVIDENCE MOUNT WITH THE IMF GETTING VERY CHATTY! REMEMBER THEY NEVER LIE!
Mountainman: Dang Straight.....They Sure Are Working at Lowering the Inflation.....In a Hurry....I Might Add....LOL......Single Me Out for Some
Thunderhawk: Iran financial policies focus on 3 key economic variables
Since removal of anti-Iran sanctions in January, the Iranian government's financial policies have been aimed at cotrolling three major variables of macroeconomy, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) announced on Thursday.
Speaking to IRNA, Akbar Komeijani referred to those variables as the inflation rate, relative stability in foreign exchange market and reforming the banking profit rates.
Meanwhile, control of inflation is CBI's top priority, Komeijani stressed.
While inflation rate in Iran was 40.4 two years ago, it decreased to 12.6 percent in Bahman 1394 (January 21 – February 19, 2016), said the official adding the figure well indicated the right financial policies that Central Bank of Iran has been pursuing to reach a single-digit rate of inflation.
Thunderhawk: Did you catch that? "The new Iranian year"March 20 MMMM
Mountainman: I CAUGHT IT......and I'm Passing it Back....WOW...A New Year.....Many Other New Realities...Hmmm.....Hmmm....Hmmm....As that Wise Old Sage Matthew McConnaughey Once said.....Well....Ahhh Right!!!!!!!....IMO
BACKDOC: WITH THIS DATE IT MAKES SENSE TO LOOK AT THE FIRST AVAILABLE TUES. WED. OR THURS. AND THAT IS? THE 22ND!
WE BEGIN TO WATCH FROM THAT POINT ON! DOC IMO
Navy to sail into Atlantic Ocean in new Iranian year: Commander
Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said that presence in the Atlantic Ocean is among the force's programs for the next Iranian year (to start on March 20).
He made the remarks on the sidelines of the ceremony to open an exhibition on achievements of the Navy in Khorramshahr city on Thursday.
Sayyari told IRNA that presence in free seas shows Iranian Navy's capabilities in establishment of security.
He added that presence in free seas, especially in north of Indian Ocean that is a bottleneck from an economic aspect, is among achievements that was fulfilled upon guidelines of the Supreme Leader.
The admiral also explained achievements of the Navy by saying that development of the ship building industry, commissioning production line of destroyers which are technologically of high standards are among achievements of the Navy.
Following construction of Jamaran destroyer, other destroyers and submarines are under construction, he added.
The commander said that Iran's flotilla had patroled free seas, Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, South China Sea, South Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and that the Navy is planning for presence in the Atlantic Ocean..
BACKDOC: THUNDER THERE IS TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE BIGGER PICTURE BUT I WILL TRY FOR NOW TO FOCUS ON JUST SOME OVERALL ISSUES IM LOOKING AT! I HOPE SOON TO TAKE ENOUGH TIME TO SHARE SOME IMPORTANT ISSUES.
LETS START WITH THE FACT THAT THE UNIVERSAL CURRENCY (BLACK GOLD), HAS FINALLY BEEN WORKING ITS WAY TO THE $40.00/BARREL PLUS PRICE BASED ON HOPES OF AN UPCOMING OPEC MTG A MONTH FROM TODAY! THE HOPE IS TO GAIN COOPERATION ON FREEZING OIL PRODUCTION!
IT SEEMS THAT A FIGHT FOR A FUTURE GLOBAL REALITY VALUE THAT ALL CURRENCIES WILL BE BASED OFF WILL LIKELY BE OFF THIS UNIVERSAL CURRENCY SINCE IT AFFECTS ALL ASPECTS OF AN ECONOMY!
WE HAVE SEEN COMPANIES CONTINUE TO BE UNDER DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES DUE TO THIS CURRENCY FALLING? WHY? AHHH THE PETROL DOLLAR STILL EXISTS AND WILL HAVE TO FIND A WAY TO DEPEG FROM OIL OTHERWISE THE DOLLAR WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE THIS DEFLATIONARY EFFECT!
IT SEEMS SO BAD THE FED COULDN'T CONTINUE ON ITS RATE HIKE PATH TO NORMALIZATION! MMMMM
I HAVE SOME BIGGER IDEAS TO SHARE ON THIS LATER!
AS COMPANIES FACE THIS DEFLATIONARY PRESSURE MANY ARE DOING LAYOFFS TO REMAIN PROFITABLE! MANY OF THESE COMPANIES ARE DOING STOCK BUY BACKS WITH THEIR PROFITS WHICH MAKE FOR A MUCH STRONGER BALANCE SHEET.
NO LET ME ASK YOU IF I MAY? IF YOU WERE A COMPANY AND YOU KNEW THAT YOU HAD TO BECOME SECURITIZED BY YEAR END WHAT WOULD YOU DO? RIGHT, REDUCE DEBT.
WHEN COMPANIES ARE EVENTUALLY RE-PRICED IN THE NEW ASSET BACKED U.S. CURRENCY THEIR STOCK PRICES SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE HIGHER VALUE! COMPANIES THAT ARE WELL PREPARED HEADED INTO THIS DOWNTURN WILL GOBBLE UP OTHER RIVAL COMPANIES!
THESE BIGGER COMPANIES DOING THESE BUY BACKS KNOW SOMETHING THAT MOST OF THE TRADERS DON'T! HEE HEE DOC IMO
Mountainman: Well the Banking Biz is getting Hit Hard as "Adjustments" are being Made......Energy markets have been Raising Cane lately and High Derivatives are Back lashing the BIG BOYS.....well Pull Up those Big Boy pants and Hedge Yourselves for this (Storm) is Flashing like "LIGHTNING"......IMO
Thunderhawk: Into Recession: US Banks Expecting ‘Disastrous' Earnings Results in Q1
Operational profits of major US banks are declining rapidly amidst low demand for financial services and international financial turbulence, meaning first quarter results might push the entire US economy into a recession.
US corporate earnings are projected to shrink further in Q1 after a lackluster performance in second half of 2015 as the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and a stronger dollar have negatively affected overseas revenues of America's enterprises. This time, major US financial institutions are in focus: as earnings season nears, US banks are expecting a massive decline in revenues from deals, including trading, investment and international lending.
Should Q1 turn out more frustration for corporate America, the period would be a third consecutive quarter of losses in profits, meaning the overall US economy is nearing an 80% chance of tumbling into a recession this year (two straight quarters of corporate losses historically precede a recession).
Goldman Sachs Group, one of America's largest financial enterprises, and one of the top donors for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, might suffer a 32% drop in its annualized earnings from investment banking in Q1, according to a report by Credit Suisse. Other sources say Goldman's investment banking might drop as much as 25%, either way, the outlook seem hardly encouraging. Goldman's trading income is expected to fall 17% in Q1, Credit Suisse said.
In Q1 2015, Goldman's investment banking revenues hit $1.9 bln, whilst this outgoing quarter they would hardly reach $1.4 bln.
The projected slump in financial sector earnings stems from the volatility in international finance, with most investors saving their money, abstaining from investment. Trading in financial services is going through hard times: once investors put their money into a haven asset, they do not require further guidance anytime soon.
"We have to take our direction from what other firms have said and what we have been able to observe in the marketplace," Guy Moszkowski of the London-based Autonomous Research LLP. said. "The market environment is what it is, and it's not good."
The wave of anxiety in high-yield bonds in December, global stocks meltdown in January, the lingering drag on commodities throughout most of the quarter and loose monetary policies have all contributed to the declining appeal of financial sector operations: market participants are losing trust in larger financial institutions and their ability to safeguard their money.
Besides, historically, US financials perform their best in the first quarter of the year, meaning should this quarter sport a massive decline, there is more trouble down the road.
"Clearly, the external environment has been a real challenge," Jonathan Pruzan of Morgan Stanley said.
Tough competition between US financials is another reason for decline in operational income amidst the unfavourable market conditions. Citigroup said on March 8 their investment banking income would plunge 25% in Q1, while trading revenues would decline 15%. JPMorgan's investment division is expecting a 25% decline in fee income as debt servicing and share insurance have both slowed. Jeffries Group reported a major collapse in trading revenues, with their income from stock and bond markets having shrunk by 82% in December to February period, the greatest decline since 2008.
Subsequently, the perceived unsatisfactory performance of the US banking sector reflected negatively on bank shares on Wall Street. Up until late 2015, bank stocks were one of key drivers of Wall Street's gains, but as operational losses mount, and revenues being slaughtered, equities of financial enterprises turn into a drag to the market.
Between 2009 and late 2015, equities of US banks rose in value by a total $14 trln, however, each time the Federal Reserve protracts on interest rate hikes, thus preventing investors from hurriedly buying into the dollar and other US assets, bank stocks plunge.
In past 52 weeks, bank shares declined by 22% in Wall Street trading, whilst insurers' stocks dropped 13%, capital markets' shares plummeted 27%, and consumer-related segment crashed 28%. The erasure of capital linked to the US financial enterprises might trigger cuts in costs and other similar measures aimed at boosting corporate efficiency, however, the main factor of the current unease, global volatility, is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
Consequently, the ongoing drag on US corporate earnings is likely to push the broader economy into a recession as soon as this year, unless an acceleration in real economy and domestic consumption prove solid enough, supporting at least domestic operations of US banks.
Mountainman: Well w/ C.Lagarde Touring the East and Working her way Around.......India,Vietnam,etc.....it Appears that there is Direction being given for A "TRANSITION".......IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
BlackRock investor sees value in emerging markets after Fed decision
A BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) portfolio manager said Thursday that he continues to see value in emerging-market bonds from Asia to Latin America a day after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and acknowledged global economic risks.
Amer Bisat, a portfolio manager within the New York-based company's fixed-income group, said he likes the value in Mexican, Indonesian, and Argentinian markets. He also said he has started "engaging" in Brazil's markets given the cheapness of some of the country's bonds.
"The fact that the Fed is worried about emerging markets is a good thing," Bisat said.
Thunderhawk: Hello Mongolia, I've always had my Hawk eye on you.
Mountainman: Well if I'm Reading the "TEA LEAVES" Correctly....LOL......Mongolia will Play a Major Role in this Trade route......China has been working w/ them.....Planning for Future Trade for some Time Now......and The Tourism Income will be Life changing for The Regions citizens!!!....IMO
Thunderhawk: Russia, China and Mongolia to Revive World's Longest Tourist Route
“The Great Tea Road” has been called the longest overland trade route in the world. Starting from the Great Wall of China, it once wove its way to Europe via Mongolia and Russia.
Now the three countries Russia, China and Mongolia have joined hands in a tourism union, aiming to revive the route to make it a great bucket list must-do for global travelers.
Speaking at the economic forum of tourism infrastructure, Deputy Head of the Federal Tourism Agency, Alexei Konyushkov called the project a positive example of cross-border and inter-regional tourism.
“This is a project of the widest geographical coverage, the longest of the existing land routes, allowing to cross Eurasia and visit countries such as Russia, China and Mongolia,” he said.
It was earlier reported that the key section of The Great Tea Road will be honored as a tourist route seeking to tap the world's two billion tea drinkers. The tea route in Russia received 'bricks' of compressed tea from camel caravans at Kyakhta — which came via Mongolia from the Great Wall of China gate at Kalgan and beyond.
The speaker said that the route started to be developed in 1992 with the support of more than 50 organizations of the three countries and it is set to cover 28 regions of Russia, although the number may vary.
“The growth of domestic tourism suggests that there is a huge potential for the development of tourism,” Konyushkov said.
BACKDOC: WELL THUNDER, THE PARTY MAY BE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY IN JUNE! THE FED WILL LIKELY RAISE RATES AGAIN. THIS WILL GET MORE MONEY TO COME OUT OF STOCKS! THE LOWER THE MARKET GOES THE EASIER THE TRANSITION INTO THE ASSET BACKED STATUS!
Mountainman: These "Emerging" Markets are going to have Huge Growth in the Near Term........So We Watch,Wait,and See as June Approaches....Many Changes will Show their True Colors between Now and Then.....IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
With Fed on hold, June volatility looms
Traders may be happy now that the Federal Reserve held back on rate hikes, but come June, markets could see volatility all over again, and investors need to prepare, strategists said Thursday.
"We're recommending clients sell some of their exposure, add some protection and think about looking at dividend strategies if the Fed's going to be slower than expected," Steven Rees, global head of equity strategy at JPMorgan Global Wealth Management, told CNBCs "Squawk Box."
On Wednesday, the Fed cut in half its expectations of interest rate hikes for 2016 from four. It also lowered its economic growth outlook to 2.2 percent for the year, down from 2.4 percent.
U.S. equity markets closed higher after the announcement, but premarket futures edged lower Thursday.
While Rees doesn't see a recession on the horizon, he is still looking to options like short-term puts for protection against other risks like volatile oil prices, tough corporate earnings, U.S. interest rates, and negative interest rates in Europe and Japan as the June earnings season and Federal Reserve meeting approach.
U.S. corporate earnings growth, a major driver of stock performance, could be problematic, as employment and wages rise, adding costs for business owners, said Jim Cahn, executive vice president and chief investment officer at Wealth Enhancement Group.
"Those wage increases are going to put pressure on businesses and profits, and ultimately, put pressure on the Fed to increase interest rates faster," Cahn said.
With manufacturers struggling worldwide, emerging markets look more attractive than the U.S., he said.
"Especially in emerging markets, the story doesn't get much worse than it is right now — and generally that's a good time to buy," Cahn said.
Mountainman: Well I'll be......What do we have Here.....Do You think the Z Country made a Deal too.....and after All when a Loan is Given by the IMF......that Means Your Resources have been....Shall We say....VERIFIED.....for a Nice Return on said Loan W/Interest...Hmmm.....Of Course Agreement to Major Reforms is A "KEY" that Unlocks the Coffers for a New Beginning for this Country......and the WORLD.....IMO
Thunderhawk: Zimbabwe to get first IMF loan in almost 20 years
Zimbabwe expects to get funding from the International Monetary fund later this year.
The loan will be the first since 1999, the country’s central bank governor, John Mangudya said on Tuesday.
He further added that the IMF would decide on the exact amount of the loan and the fund had agreed to double the amount available for Zimbabwe, known as a financial quota, to $984 million.
Currently, the country’s foreign debt stands at US$8.3 billion, of which US$1.8 billion is arrears.
The southern Africa economy country is trying to emerge from years of international isolation, largely blamed on Mugabe’s policies, including the seizures of farms from white farmers.
Recently, the government agreed to major reforms including compensation for evicted white farmers and a big reduction in public sector wages as the government tries to woo back international lenders.
The IMF and World Bank forecast growth of 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent this year.