There is a very “push – pull” conflict developing on the Iraqi political scene. As I started predicting (again) recently the prospect of a successful National Meeting with Maliki at the helm is more and more a thought of the past. I am “predicting” the removal of Maliki at some point in the foreseeable future. It is becoming clearer and clearer he has no intention of honoring any agreement or participating in a democratic government. I suspect Talibani and the opposition are coming to this realization.
Maliki either already has (effectively) or is pushing for a “majority government” – those who he’s “romancing” with this idea are not wise if they go along. Whatever deal he offers them isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. The one guarantee is – Maliki turns on everyone and everything.
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The current news cycle is fairly evenly split between Maliki angling for a stronger central government and a growing discontent among the opposition. As I have said over the last few days – this growing list of “Maliki antics” may well serve to solidify his opposition into an actionable alliance. That’s the good news.
My further comment on the overtake of the CBI – there may be (as they have been calling to happen for a while now) a chance the CoM addresses the value of the Dinar by allowing it to “free float” on the open market and allow the market to determine it’s value (while they have temporary control). Just a possibility – I’m not terrifically sold on this idea.
The main thing they have against Dr Shabibi is his articficially holding the value of the IQD down. He has used this “auction system” to maintain a stable balance for the IQD. He basically promised to raise the value of the IQD once they formed a “partnership” government and not until – Maliki has consistently fudged on this campaign promise.
This is a major stumbling block for Maliki – he has no intention of enacting such a plan. He’s purely pursuing a “majority government” (AKA – “dictatorship”). I believe he has seen some very serious problems for himself in the future which is why the “kitchen sink” approach in his antics lately. He’s thrown everything he can at them. There are several layers of “protections” he has to survive before he can enact his plan unfettered.
There will be a Judicial Review, the UN, the US, a rapidly forming opposition, rumors of plots and who knows what else….he’s got his work cut out for him.
P.S. the rumor mill is in high gear – be very careful about what you rely on as fact. Some of these writers are even confused about the gender of the people and players they are commenting on. Which is better that they are trying instead of being fully given over to unbridled rumor ;)