Our Dinar Update April 30th
Posted on April 30, 2012 by BGG
Hello Updaters!! Today I’ll do a little different *** Flashback *** then give some commentary on the news of the day *** Current News *** and toss in some *** Rumor Comments *** at the end. I hope you like the new “blog” format. Thanks – BGG
*** Flashback ***
Today’s flashback only goes back a couple of weeks. Two weeks ago from tomorrow the National Alliance started calling for a meeting with Maliki (the PM). They tried getting him to the table on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again on Friday. Maliki ditched them over and over. I said early in the week there was something about to go down in that meeting Maliki wanted no part of. They finally got together with him on Saturday.
Prior to this urgent call for a meeting with Maliki the National Alliance had been starting to make some noise about picking a potential “candidate” to replace Maliki “before it’s too late” was their own wording in the media. I was very interested in this development. Here is why…
The National Alliance is essentially Maliki’s own coalition. It is the broader group of his primary powerbase. This group includes the State of Law Coalition, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, the Sadrist Movement and several other smaller factions. If they really planned on some move against him – this would be very, very bad for him. The reality is that the National Alliance has an inkling as to what’s on the menu next and they don’t want any part of it. However, it is unlikely Maliki will lose the support of the whole National Alliance – more likely about half (if it comes to that) and that would be more than enough.
Read More Link on Right
After they got him into a meeting on that Saturday, I found it very odd the wording they used on Sunday. They proclaimed to “renew confidence in” the Maliki government based on seven conditions he had to implicitly agree to. One condition being the non-interference of independent bodies such as the CBI and the Election commisssion. He also had to agree to fully implement his agreements with the other parties and in accord with their constitution. Still lots of wiggle room – but they pretty much gave him the final warning…which was serious.
Maliki immediately headed for Iran (on Sunday) to see if he could get some help influencing factions in his own National Alliance from Tehran. From all I can gather in the news, various indicators and reports, he got little or no help. In fact, one of his big supporters (Al-Sadr) was there in the meetings in Iran (immediately after being in the meetings of the National Alliance in Baghdad) then instead of going back to Baghdad, Sadr went directly to Erbil (in Kurdistan) and has been there in very fruitful meetings ever since.
This is bit of a “quickie” flashback but is really great news based on the enormous pressure being applied to the Maliki government. I was not excited about our chances if they let him get past the Arab Summit without firmly commiting to the pressure to finish up before the Summit. I had the feeling if they let him slip past them one more time – there was no telling how long he could continue the delay tactics. I am pleasantly surprised.
*** Current News *** (I’ll update throughout the day)
Baghdad / Iyad al-Tamimi “five files, topped the Iraqi-Kuwaiti committee meetings that began yesterday in Baghdad and a two-day. And gave Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki during a meeting with Kuwaiti delegation, a big boost to the success of meetings and the development of bilateral relations, when he emphasized that Iraq is touching the Kuwaiti real desire to overcome the problems between the two sides”
I do not believe for a second that Kuwait trusts Maliki in the slightest. This is important for them only in that they are showing the UN they are genuinely trying. Maliki has told them numerous times he would do things, agree to things and then turn around and not do anything or do just the opposite and intentionally embarrass them. He did this right before the Arab Summit – promising to fully seat his government and justify the Sunni’s in the GOI – then nothing. In fact, worse than that – they were the only prominent Arab country that sent a delegate of greater authority than their UN Ambassador to the Summit – then he not only keeps none of his commitments, he is braggadocious and painfully arrogant about it. The reason Kuwait cares at all is they could use an RV’ed Iraqi currency as much as anyone could and Iraq can’t really pay them the money they owe till they have some type of influx.
Maliki in Tehran: A Desperate Search for Support
“If Maliki’s behavior at home stems from not knowing what is going around him, this is a disaster. But if he does know, and yet continues to act as he has been doing, this is an even greater disaster. How can one explain the transformation of the man who, two years ago was recognized by all regional and international parties as the indispensable key figure in Iraq, into the harbinger of ruin for the country and its Shias? This is how he is now seen in political circles in a variety of capitals, where the search is on for possible replacements”.
Whoa!! While I have a tiny bit of different perspective on one item in this article (the Press Conference with President Obama… I’ll cover it tomorrow) – the rest of this is a very good look into the situation and is one of the most scathing pieces done on Maliki thus far. This one is entirely worth the time to study carefully!!
*** Rumor Comments *** – April 30th
Here are some rumors you might have heard about in the last few days (or weeks) and I’m including some commentary to help you parse what might be good, bad and just plain silly
Rumor – Kuwait will be releasing Iraq from CH 7 sanctions sometime over the weekend and that will pave the way for an immediate RV.
Kuwait doesn’t have the authority to do this – they can relay to the UN that they are satisfied – but that is about the extent of their say in the matter. Further, CH 7 sanctions, while important, don’t lead to an immediate RV – separate issues. The RV will happen once the GOI is stable and not in the clutches of a dictator (we’ll talk more on this tomorrow).
Rumor – Wells Fargo Negotiating Team is informing various people of their plans – post-RV.
This one is actually possible – especially considering how active I believe they will be in the post-RV exchange (and that is the right term – exchange). The validity of the details I am not positive of. However, I can attest to WF being a “player” – one of many though. Once this happens it will be not nearly as hard to get a deal as you might think. It’s currency!!
Rumor – “I am being told cashins have started for tier one…..tomorrow for tier two….all the rest of us on Tuesday”
Nope – not even close. No tier one, tier two BS. Once an RV occurs everyone will have live rates in about 36 seconds. It is an electronic event and will happen everywhere – virtually all at once. Period. Don’t let anyone “pull your leg”
Rumor – THE RATES WILL BE SUPER HIGH,,SHOULD POP UP UNANNOUNCED.
Well the unannounced part I agree with – and if something over 3.20 means “super high” then that part may be true as well. I’m thinking this poster was talking about another “double-digit” projection though - which is just pure fantasy. Not true folks. If it comes in above 3.50 I’ll be stunned. Especially based on the info I’m aware of.
*** More Chat Comments ***
[BGG] Maliki is acting like he won’t face impeachment proceedings…which may not be the surprise to him. My next prediction is that he’ll be incredibly shocked when the “no confidence” vote succeeds!! That’s what he isn’t expecting – there’s lots of wrangling right now – but when it comes right down to the actual votes, no one in Parliament wants this type of dictatorship again.
[ONEDOWN] One thing that is blatantly obvious. The ‘intel’ gurus have spouted that the ‘articles’ are no good because ’80% of the media is owned by Maliki’. Doesnt appear he has as much influence on the media as the gurus claim IMO. With the last 3 weeks news primarily AGAINST Maliki it doesnt appear to be the case!!
[BGG] ONEDOWN – Yup, Maliki may have some sway with about half of the media in Iraq (but not the whole Middle East) and this is also how I predicted it – once the tidal wave got going there would be no stopping it.
[BGG] Welcome to the “Arab Spring” Mr. Prime Minister – coming to a neighborhood near you – courtesy of Facebook!!
[ONEDOWN] I also think with the internet, the people are not in the dark so much as they used to be. I mean I find it very interesting that Allawi posts tweets, etc..
[DOUBLE B] Ethyl Najafi: meeting in Erbil were Mguetnin that the current policy would restore th
[DOUBLE B] http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?4187-Ethyl-Najafi-meeting-in-Erbil-were-Mguetnin-that-the-current-policy-would-restore-th&p=4682#post4682