Our Dinar Update May 8th
Posted on May 8, 2012 by BGG
Hello Updaters!! Excellent news day!! The *** Flashback *** is more a look at today, the *** Rumors *** section is still very light but there is lots of news to look at in the *** Current News *** section and *** Chat Comments *** is pretty full. I hope you like today's Blog - BGG
*** Flashback ***
No flashback today - I do have a couple of topics I really want to write, but - I felt this is more important. How about - things that won't cause an RV, what is going on right now and the things that will bring an RV??
Some things that won't trigger, signal or cause an RV...relations being normalized with Kuwait. No matter how much gets done on this front, Kuwait's say-so is limited and the UN will be very cautious. They, too, have been burned by Al-Maliki. Other UN rules, tariff laws or some obscure banking or finance law will probably not "trigger" or signal an RV either. Best case - these things will only put more pressure on the "actors" to get in line. Ascension into the WTO won't in and of itself signal an RV. Nor will concerns raised by the Parliament to the CBI over the value or the stability of the Dinar be a cue to an RV (almost meaningless - Dr Shabibi does these meetings almost as a courtesy). Finally, infaltion by itself won't be the singular catalyst for an RV. These are all pressure points and potential penalties for NOT RVing but by no means are any one of them - "The Thing".
What is going on right now? Well, to be honest, there is a whole lot going on right now. The short story is - there is a MASSIVE power struggle taking place and there will be lots of turmoil. No problem - this is good for us. As it was 3 months ago - we had little or no chance unless Maliki agreed to come to the table on his previous agreements. If he did (or implied he would) - that would be a much different story. As we see now - he had no intention. Dr Shabibi has clearly laid out the requirement of a "partnership" government (checks and balances) as a pre-cursor to any change in monetary value.
There will be a lot of misdirection and drama in the next few days. I encourage you to relax and be careful to not get caught up in things that "appear bad". For instance - there seems to be some drama within the Sadrist movement over Sadr going to the Erbil meeting and "talking" on the part of the Sadrists. Did he take back the 15-day ultimatum or didn't he? My take, he didn't. He's been cranky about Maliki not being a leader for the people for a long time now. In the end - he speaks for the movement and some of these NA guys are still dreaming about Maliki staying in power. Hakim is leaning away from Maliki too - I expect some turmoil within the IISC ranks as well...to be expected, How do we think a political "fight to the death" would play out?? There are major fissures in the National Alliance, SLC and Dawa parties - there will be some drama.
Another thing to think about is...look at the whole spectrum of news in context - then draw some conclusions. There is an article I wasn't going to include - but I did - just to make this point. Things are not always what they seem and there will be a lot of back and forth over the next few days. Check out the article about - "20 Iraqiya MP's defecting".
Things that will signal an RV...Maliki announcing the three remaining Ministers currently being run by "proxy" (as in him), the announcement of the NCSP policy board and some type of Executive order or decree honoring Article 140. A pardon for Al-Hashemi and a public apology to Deputy PM Al-Mutlag would go a long way as well. However, short of these things it is a very distinct reality the opposition will move towards a vote of "no confidence" against PM Al-Maliki. How quickly can this happen? At this point, probably very quick. There seems to be a general agreement in place to "appoint" Ibranim Al-Jaafari as an "interim" PM and head up a "care-taker" government until the next elections. The consensus looks good.
I was a little hesistant on a call a while back when asked if Al-Sharistani was a possiblilty. This was someone's pick - not everyone's (for sure). He's a long-shot at best and at least as hard core as Maliki. Not good. Al-Jaafari on the other hand, is an excellent choice. I would project him to be an excellent "statesman" in this instance. A political "healer" so to speak, I also think he has some old notions to put to bed - going back to when he was PM back in 05' and 06'. Not bad - I just think he wants to leave things with the Kurds on a better note and this might be a shot for him to leave his "mark" on the new Iraq, much like Talibani is doing. If they actually put him in - I predict he will act very quickly and things will move forward at a rapid pace.
*** Current News ***
Out more than 20 deputies of the Iraqi and the mass of "Al-Mutlaq," may join the dissidents
Newspaper term for a parliamentary source said Tuesday that it will be the announcement of a new parliamentary bloc, did not identify the source, adding that between 20 to 25 members will announce their separation from the Iraqi List.
The source declined to reveal the names of MPs who intend to announce the new bloc, but sources close to the dissenters emphasized that the extent of including MP Abdalkhdhar Tahir, who announced yesterday the postponement of the conference, which was hoped to take place today. He said Tahir told all of Iraq yesterday that "the conference has been postponed until further notice. After it was scheduled for tomorrow to announce the formation of new political blocs, which includes all pulled out of Iraq as the Iraqi List, the free and the white block and got out as an independent. "
This is the article I was going to leave out - partly because it's a little confusing - but here goes...(just my initial impressions)...
First, it's an anonymous source - which I doubt. It's far more likely an SLC or Dawa source jerking everyone around. These guys never met a camera or news person they didn't want to get in front of - so why the need for anonymity?? It's Maliki goons "seeding" some doubt about the possible outcome of a vote...
Second, the number is way too high. I know of a few defections and some MP's have been bribed (MASSIVE bribes - which will for sure be a problem later) to change sides. No matter what - there aren't 25. There's more like 6-7 TOTAL. There may well be a couple of smaller "parties" emerge but I don't even see these guys changing sides entirely - they are just looking to get a better deal as a kind of "swing vote"...
Third, they had the date wrong - they were talking about "tomorrow" as in Monday and calling "the Meeting off" indefinitely...it's Tuesday.
Fourth, why in the world would they leave now?? They have their "arch enemy" on the ropes...Nobody leaves the game when you're in the lead and you've just come from 20 down with only 3 minutes left to play - NOBODY!!
Fifth, qoute "Mulla and there are no defections from the list, confirming that the mass sticking Bnoabha, Al Mulla explained that there are MPs who broke off earlier will return. He was accused Mullah "Maliki's office" to promote what he called a "lie" practiced by a coalition of state law".
I knew it was from the SLC before I got to the bottom of the article!! This is the kind of trash I was warning about earlier - I'm not so certain Maliki is just putting on a good front of "trying desperately", knowing he intends to slide by Tuesday or the 16th or whenever and is sowing these seeds towards a looming battle in the Parliament.
Maliki's government is at stake and "paper Erbil" free of the signing of Talabani and Hakim removed
Twilight News / The eyes moving to the capital of the Kurdistan Region, Erbil, before a contract can be called "summit meeting", the leaders of Iraqi political blocs effective, against the backdrop of controversies that preceded the contract between the State of Law Coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, on the one hand and each of the Iraqi List, and the Alliance of Kurdistan, on the other.
And on the same subject says the leader of the State of Law list Adnan OS in a press statement that "Talabani and in spite of his participation in the meeting Quintet, he did not sign the agreement, which resulted in him," explaining that "Talabani request an apology from the participants in the meeting."
ويضيف السراج أن "طالباني شارك في الاجتماع بصفته رئيسا للجمهورية وأعلن انه لن يصبح طرفا في الأزمة السياسية التي يشهدها العراق". OS and adds that "Talabani attended the meeting in his capacity as president of the republic and declared that he will not become a party to the political crisis taking place in Iraq."
This article is trying to say Talibani attended the Erbil meeting but didn't sign the paper - so he isn't really part of the Erbil 5 and Hakim is still backing Maliki. That's not how I read it at all. If you notice at the end - this is again, an SLC source giving the narrative. I hate to break the news to these guys - Talibani was the one who organized the whole thing. He and Barzani.
Maliki asked President Talabani, the early convening of National Conference
Baghdad (news) .. A member of the State of Law Coalition MP / National Alliance / Izzat Shahbandar, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is serious to resolve the political crisis, revealing the request of al-Maliki of President Jalal Talabani, to expedite the convening of the Conference National. He Chenbdr in a telephone conversation with the Agency (news) today Monday: that al-Maliki wants to resolve the crisis and is ready to implement what was agreed upon condition, that does not conflict with the Constitution, warned of "procrastination" holding the National Conference. He noted: the existence of political forces that want to block the National Conference, in order to aggravate the political situation and re-elections. He Shahbandar close to Maliki: The Prime Minister asked the day of President Jalal Talabani, to speed up convening of National Conference and the call of the Preparatory Committee for the preparation of the conference agenda and determine the day of his contract. / Finished /
Sounds great but lets not "hold our breath" just yet. Pay no attention to what he says - watch what he does REAL CLOSE!!
Damalouji: Maliki's inviting Iraqiya to attend the National Meeting is last minute's desperate attempt
Baghdad (NINA) – Iraqiya Alliance's Spokesperson, Maysoun al-Damalouji, described the invitation by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, to Iraqiya to attend the National Meeting as being last minute's desperate attempt.
In a statement to NINA on Sunday, May 6, Damalouji said, "Iraqiya has already announced its position regarding the National Meeting, of being dead; we do not trust that the clauses of Erbil Agreement will be implemented. Maliki's invitation to attend the Meeting is the last minute's desperate attempt, because he will not abide by any agreement he concludes, as he did regarding Erbil Agreement."
Damalouji added, "Next step, if the memo signed recently in Erbil by Sadr, Barazani, Allawi and Nijaifi, is not implemented by Maliki within 15 days, we will request the National Alliance to replace him by another of its choosing." / End.
This is pointing out the "desperate" nature of some of Maliki's position. I said he would have gotten a much better deal 2 months ago. Sit down and ask for what you want. He might have even survived politically. Maybe. I will admit - alot of this looks really, really good for us. Further, Al-Iraqiya isn't really asking for the "unthinkable" - they just want what was agreed to and no persecution(s).
Sadrists: If the visit Erbil wrong, why stand in front of the door begging Maliki-Sadr
Re Sadrist MP's comments on the rule of law for a coalition of Sami al-Askari described the visit by the leader of Sadr Muqtada al-Sadr to Erbil Sin.
وقالت النائب عن كتلة الاحرار البرلمانية مها الدوري لـ(وكالة البغدادية نيوز) " اذا كانت زيارة السيد مقتدى الصدر الى اربيل خطأ كما ادعى العسكري فلماذا يقف المالكي متوسلا على باب الصدر في كل مرة". The MP for the Liberal parliamentary bloc Maha League's (Agency Baghdadiya News) "If Moqtada al-Sadr's visit to Arbil error as claimed by the military, why Maliki stand begging at the door of the chest every time."
Sadr is taking a little heat for siding with the Erbil 5 - but I don't see him backing up. He saw this coming a while back and has turned it into "political gold". He went from being tiny little leader, to a tribal war lord, to a cleric "in exile", to having 40 seats in Parliament, to a handshake away from the Prime Minister job for a Sadrist....all in the span of several years. He's no dummy - and if it's Maliki or Jaafari (both from the same party) it makes no difference to him or his bosses.
Sadr confirms that the item may withdraw confidence from Maliki in two weeks is still valid
Sumerian News / Baghdad
نفى التيار الصدري، الاثنين، أن يكون زعيم التيار مقتدى الصدر قد أوقف العمل برسالته الى التحالف الوطني التي تضمنت بند سحب الثقة من رئيس الحكومة نوري المالكي في حال عدم تنفيذ اتفاقات اربيل. Denied the Sadrist movement, on Monday, to be the current leader Moqtada al-Sadr have suspended his letter to the National Alliance, which included a clause to withdraw confidence from Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the absence of implementation of agreements on Arbil.
Sadr addresses (himself) the SLC BS about him "suspending" or backing off the letter he sent to Jaafari (Current NA boss). Not true. The guys thinks he reports to Allah. Do you think he'll "bow down" to these thugs?? He's not scared!! In the back of my mind - Jaafari is reputed to be a descendant of Muhammad - that can't hurt Sadr's feelings either.
*** Rumor Comments *** - May 8th
Rumor - I might not be getting this right but bludog posted I think said if you do not have an account set up with banks that when rv's and you call to make appt, then you go to bottom of list and so he stressed how important it is to have the acct set up. Is this true or false? I would have to sign up for 2 to play it safe, this is expensive and stressful and I feel pressured and if i don't have to do this would be better.
BluDog is probably right on this one - you might be a little delayed (24 hours) by not having an account at the bank you wind up doing business with, but who cares?? What's 24 hours if you get the right bank?
2. He indicated (I could be misunderstanding this it did not make any sense to me but im new ) that if you have no big 4 banks in your area and want to go to neighboring state for cash out that this could cause you complications and that he recommends you to get attorney to ask about this or other option is to go to non tax state and cash out. Is this true or false rumor or might be true?
False - I kinda doubt it on this part, but we'll give him a pass since he was right on the first part (half-right :) )
Rumor - WE ARE AWARE NOW OF “WOLF PACKS” TRYING TO CONVINCE DINAR HOLDERS (DINARIANS) TO DO SOME OF THE FOLLOWING ACTS:
1) SIGN OVER IQD
2) SIGN AFFIDAVITS TO GET A BETTER PRICE
3) PHYSICALLY LEND OR HAVE ACCESS TO THE IQD.
Holy cats!! Bludog gets two right in one day!! Crazy!! He's right - there are some bad boys taking advantage of people wanting out early. DO NOT LET YOUR DINAR OUT OF YOUR SIGHT - and don't give personal info to anyone other than a qualified financial group you intend to do business with. NO MIDDLE MEN.
If you find a crazy rumor or have a question about something you've heard - bring it to one of the Mods over at www.dinarupdates.com and we'll use it here. Thanks!!