Subject: BLC Administrator Shredd Chat 9/3/2013
[rsp1] Shredd Any words of wisdom for today?
[Shredd] ummmm, buy low and sell high lol, we got the first part down - seriously though, for me, until Turki speaks, I'm just waiting on the sidelines, we have no clue as to what his plan is re: zeros project
[rsp1] He has kinda disappeared from the limelight
[Shredd] yes and even though the project is separate from the rate moving, they are closely related and dependent on one another.
The small denoms cannot be introduced without a strong rate of at least par and the rate cannot free float right away, having the market determine rate and pace of increase without having small notes at the ready so, for me, I wait for the CBI to speak,] much more is happening that is very positive, many signs of progress, that is for sure
Read More Link On Right
[Shredd] I think it is very interesting the faster pace of budget talks I also love the continued pressure from the GOI to have strength to the dinar, we've never had support like that before.
I also like the unacceptance of the lag in dinar pricing ,again the perspective that since reserves are so high and now out of VII, it is expected that the dinar realize "significant" increase so, it's all good, just waiting for the horse's mouth instead of it's arse
Said a member of the Finance Committee MP / coalition of Kurdish blocs / Dler able, for the assignment corporate banking and private banks accused of laundering money and smuggling currency over the past months to the judiciary for prosecution.
Said is capable (of the Agency news): that the Iraqi dinar will see a significant improvement its price vs. international currencies, especially after the resort’s central bank to correct mistakes that occurred during the last period, which led to the low exchange rate of the dinar.
Pointed to: that company mediates (banking) and private banks accused of laundering money and smuggling of foreign currency will be brought to justice for the purpose of trial and reduce repeat
These phenomena, being harmful to the economy and the value of the dinar.
said: that the central bank was able to over the last period of the rescue of the Iraqi dinar from degradation and to stabilize its price, stressing that the development of the dinar is much better than before and will see an improvement over the coming period.
[tlm724] that the Iraqi dinar will see a significant improvement its price vs. international currencies
[Shredd] what peeps sometimes forget is what the dinar rate could already be based on reserves and supply....it's just being falsely held down until.......?
[tlm724] Shredd exactly ! what we see on the CBI site isn't accurate imo
[Shredd] they need to nail down the processes to maintain stability which primarily is affected by outsiders sucking it (the "bleeding" of the dinar) and also corruption and terrorist financing,
[rsp1] Keeping us in the dark...for a reason... hmmmmm
[Shredd] imo, once the CBI has this at acceptable levels of control, they can introduce their new dinar don't wanna pour new wine into old wineskins
[Shredd] agreed timmy
[rsp1] that could be awhile then...since there is so much corruption and money laundering.
[Shredd] rsp I don't think it's a conspiracy but the peeps the CBI wanna keep in the dark are the terrorists
[rsp1] and for good reason...
[Shredd] re: speculating, what is outside of Iraq is out, the CBI is not concerned about us
[rsp1] Nor should they be.
[Shredd] rsp the CBI doesn't need to eliminate all the terrorists, just have controls in place so they cannot economically gain from the exchange, they've busted them already with pallets of dinar so control is what they are after, control in pricing, the bleeding outside of their borders and corruption at all levels
[rsp1] I've noticed a significant increase in arrests lately in the articles.
[therealbubbie] hey for all they know some of the people working at the CBI can be terrorists
[Shredd] true we've seen arrests for corruption, that is for sure
[Shredd] so, the reserves are there, the new dinar is ready imo, the project to remove the zeros is laid out, VII is done, plug those last few holes via passing laws, implement needed controls and let's see what happens, the sovereign rating is a big one too like I commented on earlier
Raise the level of Iraq's credit rating attracts investments and achieve development. called Economists actors economic government in the country need to speed up resolving the issue credit rating of Iraq because of its great importance in attracting foreign investment and give the perceptions of the economic right to the investing companies as well as being one of the most factors in the banking sector reform. According to the economic expert d.
The appearance of Mohammed Saleh, the classification of Iraq credit now, although he did not specify yet officially, he is at a temperature of B-returned him a good indication of the reason for optimism, noting that it could be rated country credit through bonds sold in global markets because the presence of a credit rating, and that was low , it is better than no rating basically.
[Shredd] We see so many articles talking about the importance of investment in Iraq. First, there is the investment where companies are expanding their business into the region. This type of investment will grow slowly, especially as political and security instability continue to be an obvious issue.
[Shredd] Second, there is the investment where bonds and other security types like derivatives, equities and asset-backed securities are closed and traded in the global financial markets.
[Shredd] This article is talking about this second type that can grow much, much faster. What most people don't understand is this type of very lucrative investment cannot take place with Iraq being at a "NR" rating (not rated).
The reason why is financial products that represent investors, like funds, insurance companies and investment management firms do not have the ability (per their underlying governing documents) and appetite for "NR" securities due to the extreme high risk it brings.
[Shredd] That all said, for Iraq to come out in the "B" rated range will open many doors in the investment into Iraq at the global financial markets level. This greases the wheels of any economy and will introduce Iraq to all of the investment players that will make the fastest, most impactful effect on Iraq.
[Shredd] Sure, we want to continue to see more and more articles about companies coming into Iraq. This is very good for the local economy and brings jobs to the area.
But, Iraq emerging from not being rated to a "B" range rating will open the doors that will have the greatest effect on Iraq taking a seat among global investment and will also bring strength and support to the dinar.
[Shredd] This will also allow all to see what the response and perception of Iraq will be as we will be able to watch what the pricing and trading trends are. If it is positive, which I believe it will be, investors will see the appetite for Iraqi debt in the markets. This will in turn translate to investor demand and that is what we want to see.
[Shredd] This is not the first time we've seen this topic recently, but again, I just wanted to explain how important this is for Iraq realizing substantial investment growth...the kind that puts it on the investment map per se!
[Shredd] ...just another side to this big picture that we may not realize is needed before Iraq joins the wto, they need an acceptable rating
[tlm724] Shredd bubbies found an article last night about WTO, let me show it for those that may not have seen it
[Shredd] so, all forward progress,....very encouraging. yes i read that, that economist is wise!
Baghdad - Mostafa Hashemi said academic economist d. Majid Baidhani that Iraq's accession to the WTO will give the country's economic advantages contribute to increase production and improve the quality and put an end to the entry of goods poor to markets.
said Baidhani told (morning) that liberalization of trade in services and encouraging foreign investment will lead to encourage the movement and flow into the country as reflected in the The reality of the economic activity.
explained that it would put an end to the competition of goods and commodities-backed Iraqi countries produced and sold at less than their prices in their countries.
He pointed out that Iraq had committed to in advance, indirectly, to join the World Trade Organization by signing the document the International Covenant. aims document signed by Iraq prior years to determine the approach the state in the political, economic, social, humanitarian and implementation mechanism.
They also check in with States interested in Iraqi affairs in the era or a partnership, vows to Iraq from his part to abide by the curriculum stated, by contrast, operates a signatory to help cope with these challenges and achieve the stated goals.
pointed Baidhani to that of the most important negative effects on Iraq is not included oil in international trade agreements and on the economic effects of the fact that large oil component of the foundation of the GDP of Iraq, as well as the private sector is still limited activity in the field of industrial and agricultural production.
Indicating the importance of identifying and selecting goods which country when he entered full membership organization. http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=53386
[Shredd] "The reality of the economic activity. explained that it would put an end to the competition of goods and commodities-backed Iraqi countries produced and sold at less than their prices in their countries". right there...is key. Iraq imports nearly all of what they need so the entry of goods and profitable pricing will be key
[tlm724] Shredd they are also doing the second reading on the product protection today, so we should see that passed shortly . that protects anything made or produced in Iraq from being undersold by imports, keeping the money at home which brings on encouragement to produce locally
[Shredd] yes, another facet that is being improved
[rsp1] They seem to be getting a foothold there too, timmy
[Shredd] and they need to fully implement tariffs which we continue to read in the news
[Shredd] in my very humble opinion, I feel if the CBI's plan was to slowly manage the rate to a dollar, they'd already be moving that direction but since they are not, a singular move in conjunction with removing the zeros is the most logical approach again, in my opinion
[tlm724] Shredd yes I agree imo we will see the rate come out of the gate near par to the dollar hence the transition will be smooth and easy
[Shredd] so, to me, the delay that continues month by month after VII especially proves that even more and unless the free floaters think it will take over a year and a half to get to around a buck, their time is quickly running out too, not enough time to raise that quickly and again, NO ONE can assume how the "market" will respond.
everyone assumes the "market" would push the dinar to a buck or more in a matter of months.....really? what proof or historical evidence are they assuming this ?
in fact, with all the political and security instability, the "market" very well may be hesitant to jump on Iraq especially with no rating, very little debt available to invest in by the way
[Shredd] you see, the "market" for Iraq is not strong as far as available issuance's so even though the appetite may be strong for iraqi debt, the supply of it to invest in is extremely low
[tlm724] Shredd Bondlady reminded me that the IQD we currently hold came out Oct 2003 so to me that is an indication that currency reform / change can accure within that time frame, doesn't have to be fiscal year beginning imo
[Shredd] well, that was changing from a currency that was to be destroyed
[Shredd] per shabibi, it cannot move unless on a fiscal year 2003 was a MUST situation. Iraq couldn't wait till the follwing Jan in 2003
[tlm724] Shredd so is this ! they cannot continue like this they will destroy all the monetary changes they have achieved, this may be a slow go but they have achieved much !
[Shredd] not sure, they are operating with the dollar just fine, just not sure....you have a good point.....I'm just reciting what Shabs said things change though ...ie the governor
[Shredd] so, outside of the "market" on the finance side you have the street side, consumer side that level of investment is coming but takes time as infrastructure grows and more companies come into iraq, that will continue to grow. ISX is another plus, much growth there!
[tlm724] Shredd lets not forget India
[Shredd] so the memo of understanding for trading in dinar, in my opinion, was a whole different issue
Adoption of local currencies in the Indian Iraqi dealings. BAGHDAD - morning praised a member of the Finance Committee MP Dler capable, Bembagesat both Iraq and India to agree to be economic transactions and trade of the two countries in local currencies, stressing that it will support the value of the dinar and make it desirable internationally.
said capable in a press statement that talks of the Iraqi delegation headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and a ministers and economists, with the Indian side about the accreditation in business dealings between the two countries on local currencies and not the dollar and this measure will support the value of the dinar and improves positioned internationally.
said: that the Iraqi dinar is strong and covered with reserves much of hard currency and gold, especially during the recent period improved exchange rate dinar and significantly against the dollar, making the nations economic as large as India maintains the Iraqi dinar and deal him, this is an indicator of economic well for the Iraqi dinar.
This was confirmed Minister of Indian that both Iraq and the Indian Tbagesoa on strengthening bilateral economic relations, and the possibility of adopting local currencies Iraqi and Indian in the business dealings of the two countries instead of the U.S. dollar.
[Shredd] Strengthening bilateral relations via trade is all about electronic transactions.This is a good thing like timmy pointed out because India is choosing to denominate their trade in dinar will strengthen the confidence and value of it. This is not about paper folks...it's all good!
[Shredd] rsp1 long answer to your question, but there you go
[rsp1] I knew you had something good to say. Thank you for your take on this whole investment.
[Shredd] yqw and now, I give to you lighters, today's show is brought to you by Hopium, smoke it while you got it. Shredd -out