Skylimit I agree Mike, if they go ahead with this plan after years of dollarizing to reduce the dinar count, then forget about this year. They're either ready or they're not.
DreamWeaver Hey, Mike ... if those 50ks come out and it ends up they're being released just to draw out three zero notes instead of rate change from 1166 to 1000--please toss me a life preserver so I can find my way to safety--away from this pondering-maze-of-wacky-Iraqi nonsense. Will retire my brain and enjoy a lot more sleep. LOL. Best ~ DW PS -- Ditto LOL for Sky.
Mike Lol, now that's funny! I'm hoping we're not going to see a 50k, time will tell what direction Iraq will go. DW, great post
Skylimit DW by most accounts there's not much left to draw out. They've been deleting the zeros for the past 2 or 3 years and not really paying anyone. The other bills left in circulation have worn out. This move might have had logic in 2012 but not now based on every report I've read.
I don't mind waiting for the politics to clear and all the other delays we've experienced to end but a move like this could seriously devalue our investment. It's hard for me the believe the US and other countries waiting to get paid would allow this. Just when you think maybe a brain cell will light up over there they blow it out with a brain **.
Skylimit Mike my comment was directed at the pumpers and knuckleheads not the thoughtful people who are well researched and happen to know someone that might be of help.
DreamWeaver I am with you, Sky, as far as all notes they intend to draw in are drawn in. Phase 1 is over.
IMO if they release those 50ks, I'm associating their release with something completely different than anyone in dinarland ... which means I don't agree with ANY of the opinions posted concerning those 50ks:
They aren't going to do a bait and switch and release 50s instead of 50ks; they aren't going to release 50ks specifically to draw in more notes; they aren't going to release 50ks because delete the zeros is off and this will be a LOP, etc. Can't reconcile any of those theories with positive monetary reform, which I believe is set to happen this year.
IMO IF those 50ks are released, a rate change from 1166 to 1000 will follow at some point. Those 50ks may still be a planned part of delete the zeros ... just not an obvious step we recognize (like pulling those 50s).
I immediately recognized CBI pulling those 50s as a dtz step--and expect releasing 50ks to also be part of plan--if it happens. Caveat: IF those 50ks are released and there is never (LOL) a rate adjustment to 1000 (.0010) or whatever, then my speculation was wacked.
Bottom line: CBI move won't be as anyone expects ... except me, I suspect ... insomuch as I'm expecting release of those 50ks to fall right into alignment with delete the zeros--as long as it dovetails with my thoughts about them moving rate in preparation for deleting three leading zeros, moving to Article VIII, introducing new lower denoms, etc.
So, creative license applies as there is no foundation for my theory other than the way my brain functions. :P ROFL at your last line as that may be why there's no light in Iraq and an abundance of natural gas. LOL. Best ~ DW.
Gorwell Ok, This is totally thinking outside the box, but here goes........
One article said the new notes would be "Marked as 50". Another article says, "new financial catagory worth fifty thousand dinars".
So could they be saying just use these new 50 dinar note for now and it is worth 50K for now but things will change later (with the rate change). Then the new 50 dinar notes would serve as that bridge/temporary currency from 50K to 50 value.
I am not thinking of this as a lop, just a "stand in note" for now. I don't know and I am not even sure I should post this, but I will so I can get some of your thoughts. Mrs. G
DreamWeaver Mrs. G, that's part of theory I set out last week--whether or not "50" is or isn't marked on 50,000 bill. I posted that theory on "IQD Notes--5_7" thread along with my other thoughts along this line on a few other threads the past several days.
Basically, I expect CBI to notate 50 on the 50,000 dinar as well as immediately adjust rate to 1000 when 50ks are released as this is the only way to fully utilize those bills as a bridge for Iraqi people.
Since Iraq does some "half-arsed" moves, they could farb this up by not having 50 marked on the bills or initially moving the rate. That, IMO, would diminish the entire purpose of those 50ks ... but it's Iraq.
So my response to you is that you appear to be standing outside the box--right along with me--on this thing. :)
I absolutely see those 50ks as "bridge" notes for the rate change because only way a 50,000 note would equal "50" is if rate first moved from 1166 to 1000.
Here's how to calculate it: right now a 50,000 note would equal "43" at current rate of 1166 (.00086); but if rate were moved to 1000 (.0010) then note would equal 50 (50,000 x .0010 = 50).
They may or may not actually mark that "50" on the 50,000 note (though I expect to see it on the note). Doesn't matter IMO as making that 50,000 worth 50 is certainly their intention and part of the on-going roll out of delete the zeros program.
Fully expect them to adjust rate from 1166 (.0086) to 1000 (.0010) at time they release 50,000 notes ... or at some point in immediate future.
This is my theory as to the "missing" component of the delete the zeros program that will bridge from current currency regime to prepare the way for deleting the three leading zeros--new currency regime.
Posted many times since last year that I fully expect CBI to release those 50ks--and never agreed with board about any theories held as to why they were going to be printed.
Nothing about releasing those 50,000 notes made sense, so I started pondering and researching.
Finally, with help of OWHN finding the articles, I came to conclusion that those 50k notes are a part of Shabibi's original plan. Great news ... but ... because printing those 50ks doesn't seem to dovetail with anything we currently know about delete the zeros program---just how do they fit in?
The conclusion I reached, bottom line, is that those 50,000 notes will serve as a "bridge" from 1166 to 1000 rate. That's how CBI intends to prepare the way to delete the three leading zeros from the rate.
Makes perfect sense to me as I've always had a mental hangup about deleting the three zeros first, as it leaves a rate of 1.16 (.86) ... but just how in the heck is CBI going to get that rate to desired and intended rate of 1-to-1? Didn't seem efficient or fluid--and intuitively it always felt like I was missing a major piece of the puzzle ... the piece that bridges everything.
So, I put on a CBI hat and thought, "If I were with the CBI, how would I get the field set for a 1-to-1." First adjust rate to 1000 (.0010) was the answer. It's simple and causes no stress on economy and sets the foundation for a fluid move to 1-to-1 (whenever CBI is ready) by only needing to delete the three leading zeros.
IMO the only thing that makes sense is at some point to move the rate to 1000. So, what mechanism could CBI intending to utilize to move the rate?
What tool would serve to make a smooth transition while also educating the people.
Answer: by using a new currency (50,000 notes) to act as the bridge. That's why I fully expect to see rate change to 1000 with release of those 50,000 notes.
At that time all the currency would be adjusted, as follows:
50,000 dinar note = $50 (expect to see "50" right on the bill)
25,000 dinar note = $25
10,000 dinar note = $10
5,000 note = $5
1,000 dinar note = $1
500 dinar note = $.50
250 dinar note = $.25
I've reposted my theory below in case it helps others on the board to connect the dots the way I have. Personally, I don't see these thoughts as any stretch at all--as I'm an abstract reasoner and this way of thinking isn't really outside the box for me at all. Think that may be true of you, Mrs. G, as well. ;)
From thread: IQD notes_5-7:
"BTW.....Mike says IF this was the original plan (Shabibi and Saleh) from the get go back in 2012 to print a 50,000 note....the 50,000 could be a bridge note until they rv....that means we could be further along than we thought....."
Mike's thought is tracking with what I've been pondering for well over a year. Been analyzing just what CBI could be intending with introducing 50,000 notes--as well as reprinting all those denominations in 2013--and how those steps correlate or don't correlate to Shabibi's original delete the zeros plan. Are we still on track or has something changed ...?
Intuition told me these moves (reprinting all denoms except 50s and issuing new 50,000 note) were either a part of Shabibi's original plan OR the plan changed.
That sparked the thought: If 50,000 notes were discussed during Shabibi's time, then that's part of original plan. If 50,000 notes weren't discussed until 2013, then original plan probably changed--which would definitely be an uh-oh moment.
Posed this thought to Oldwashisname in a conversation and he began doing exactly what I was doing--digging around trying to pinpoint just when they started talking about 50,000 notes.
On Tuesday, OWHN found references to 50,000 notes back in 2012. EUREKA, as both of us (if I can speak for OWHN) now believe printing those 50k notes was part of Shabibi's ORIGINAL plan.
So, IMO, now all I had to do was really dig in and figure out the purpose of those 50,000 notes. Intuition told me last year those notes were definitely getting printed--now I just have to figure out how that piece fits into the delete-the-zeros puzzle.
Intution also told me that printing those 50k notes isn't going to flood market with more paper, or be a LOP, or some type of ploy by the CBI to disguise the introduction of the new 50 (as Kap has conjectured).
None of those thoughts felt accurate to me as my intutition kept whispering "delete the zeros was implemented in Feb. and those 50k notes are part of that plan."
Tueday, when I was folding laundry, the answer popped in. Here is my Theory as to the purpose of those 50,000 notes (or even 100,000 notes)--a Theory one year in the making, LOL:
1. CBI will print (already did print) 50,000 notes with "50" marked on the bill.
2. When CBI releases those 50,000 notes (which I'm anticipating they will do by July 1st) they will simultaneously announce that the rate has moved from .00086 to .0010.
3. This new rate will make those new 50,000 notes worth $50 USD. (50,000 x .0010 = $50)
Not a lop ... not bad news for us ... not anything to do with 50,000 notes being new 50 dinars as suggested by Kap. Nope. None of that. Just a well-designed move by CBI as part of the delete the zeros plan--which we know was implemented in February, when CBI took ACTION of pulling those 50s.
4. IMO, that "50" marked on the bill is intended to "bridge" and "educate" the Iraq people as to current value of all the notes--after rate change to .0010--as follows:
50,000 dinar note = $50 (they'll be able to see it right on the dinar note)
25,000 dinar note = $25
10,000 dinar note = $10
5,000 note = $5
1,000 dinar note = $1
500 dinar note = $.50
250 dinar note = $.25
5. This move is CBI's way of bridging from one program to another while getting Iraqis fully on board the delete the zeros train.
6. 50,000 notes will not be flooding the market as they will only be released through the banks, swapping out damaged dinars of equal value--same as they have already been doing with those new 2014 denominations.
7. Don't expect CBI to delete 1, 2 or 3 zeros from the rate until Parliament passes key laws--especially Investment Law. Once that happens, and CBI has what they need on the books, Article VIII will occur along with introducing new lower denoms and rate change. Currently circulating bills will be pulled in slowly and all other steps I've outlined in previous posts as far as de-dollarizing will occur.
Even though it may not happen exactly as I'm stating, there is no doubt in my mind those 50,000 denoms are a key piece of this process and any MOVE CBI makes in regards to them is verification that delete the zeros is fully implemented.
This program has been stalled since 2012, but Abadi put it back on track October 2014 and CBI has verified it is on track by pulling those 50s. I fully expect them to keep going. One announcement ... one move ... after another.
For well over a year I've been trying to fit these pieces (reprinting denoms and issuing new 50k notes) into my puzzle and I am absolutely certain those 50k notes are a part of Shabibi's original plan.
IMO that moment occurred on Tuesday when I had the thought: IF printing 50k notes was a part of Shabibi's plan and Shabibi's plan was all about delete the zeros, then what is the CBI revealing to us with notating a 50 on the 50,000 dinar note, if we believe it has nothing to do with a LOP and it's all about CBI intention to get to a 1-to-1 rate?
The minute my mind thought 1-to-1 ... it all just dropped in. They are going to move the rate from .00086 to .0010, using these 50k notes as a bridging and education tool in preparation for 1-to-1 rate.
Though I am absolutely at peace that 50k note fits into the CBI's blueprint, I'm not sure that we'll see the rate change we want until July at earliest--may not even happen until January. Will depend on what they accomplish as far as ISIL and laws.
But really, what difference does it make BECAUSE we now SEE that CBI fully intends rate change to 1-to-1 and this RV train is moving down the track, gaining speed, and our destination is visible--for the first time EVER ... IMO.
Rate change couldn't have happened in 2012 as GOI wasn't on board ... and then Shabibi was gone. NOW it stands shimmering in front of us for the first time as a REAL possibility this year ... a very real possibility for the first time ever. JMO.
Don't post much now, but wanted to share this with the board. As always, take it or leave it--but it is what I truly believe we will see. My intuition has been right on the money so far--and I'm expecting this to also prove accurate. Blessings and best thoughts, DW."