THOUGHTS ON “JASON & THE BLACK SWAN PROBABILITY”
Michael Glenn MARCH 19, 2015 AT 3:45 AM I’m looking for a process, one we are likely in right now, rather than an event. Morphing the current monetary model (which operates in real-time) does not have to be by fiat (top-down) as most think.
A grass roots, market demand driven shift can create the addition of debt-free, asset based liquidity. It is perfectly lawful to trade a gold widget for a blue widget.
We must be as wise as serpents, yet as gentle as doves.
thomas18z MARCH 19, 2015 AT 3:49 AM Thank you JC. After reading the countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, i was looking forward to reading your interpretation. For levity, it’s too bad the analytical reference wasnt from “Happy Days” where one could site jumping the shark vice the Black Swan as the cataclysmic event.
Raoul Asare-Bediako MARCH 19, 2015 AT 5:36 AM Qudos for a happy days reference…jumping the shark in reference to as Black Swan? Brilliant. :D
~GetReal MARCH 19, 2015 AT 8:34 AM JC, I have heard this would happen similarly and while the lights may flicker those who are focus on MSM and have their heads buried will not even realized it has happened. They may see it mentioned on the news ..
Yet the explanation that is provided will be plausible and acceptable in their mind .. Some may feel a pinch, but the majority will remain asleep to the transition. ~Get Real
Speedspirit MARCH 19, 2015 AT 12:08 PM “In fact, black swans are a different species specific to Western Australia, (Cygnus atratus) The black swan metaphor itself fails one of our key tests of predictive modeling – we would have worried that the observed (European swan) data are not likely to be adequately representative of the future (Australian swan) observations we want to predict. ”
“In our power law model example, we already noted that we should hesitate before assuming that all future events will continue to be drawn from the same distribution.”
” Taleb’s recommendation of not overly relying on models based on past data, making subjective expert assessments of where additional unpredicted future risk might lurk, and making conservative investments to ameliorate the impact of unforeseen (even unforeseeable) negative “Black Swans” is fundamentally sound advice.”
The future is very likely to disrupt the plans “they” have for those plans never included God in the planning.
Ronpoitras MARCH 19, 2015 AT 1:55 PM Must we keep playing the music ,,, As someone said earlier its a process that’s well underway, not an event.
A series of choke-holds, if you will, a flock of smallish(?) ‘black swans’., i,e,. an overvalued stock market, a bond market bubble, a huge accumulation and increase in debt, an unknown/unregulated gargantuan derivatives market, a precipitous decline in oil prices but most important is the rapidly declining trust in bank and government ‘officialdom’ everywhere.
Nothing will stop this ‘flock’ from suddenly changing toward a totally unknown direction, and certainly not the tinkering of global bankers along the sidelines.
Susan Morris MARCH 19, 2015 AT 2:06 PM But Speedspirit, they are doing God’s work!
Speedspirit MARCH 19, 2015 AT 6:50 PM Are you trying to be funny or serious?
irrelevant111 MARCH 19, 2015 AT 4:49 PM Interesting piece. Your thesis holds merit, as well as few others seeing differently on each side of threshold. Nothing is a foregone conclusion, until it occurs. Fascinating past trends mean as much as foretelling the future. Time as always will tell… Best To All
Roger Parness MARCH 19, 2015 AT 5:59 PM In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men Gang aft agley (Robert Burns 1785)
Awaiting the black swan, by definition, eliminates it’s possibility.
What actually happens is drawn from the list of what is not predicted. Reality (or it’s facsimile) forms from unpredictable random chaos. As soon as one draws a conclusion, you’re on the wrong track.
I predict doom, gloom and a huge crash but prep for good times and prosperity. Ha. Why not?
There is a force for good afoot despite the myriad ugly truths.
Paulo Ferreira MARCH 19, 2015 AT 6:40 PM Thanks for another enlightening article JC Collins. I was looking the members of The Group of Thirty, I and can’t find the russian member. Which member is on its board?
Wmcmw MARCH 19, 2015 AT 7:55 PM JC, I have been tuning in here for about six months devouring your writing as someone starved for oxygen. I am amazed at your ability to communicate a complex issue to someone of limited knowledge .. me.
I have relied on people like Jim Sinclair to navigate this crisis for a few years and recently sent him one of your articles requesting his opinion .. he did not see the relevance ..
I was suddenly aware of a dark cloud of confusion evaporating and realized his opinions are fear based and panic driven as are much of alternative media. Your writings are an oasis and a breath of fresh air.
I am curious if there are any other sites you would recommend? .. or perhaps not as it seems there is less alternative. wm
Chris Peters MARCH 19, 2015 AT 8:20 PM The authors of rare event study obviously put a lot of thought into their work. To the degree that we should be looking at identifying risk rather than trying to predict specific events, I whole-heartedly agree.
I tend to disagree with their assertion that Taleb is “wrong” in his statement that 9/11 was not foreseeable (well except for the individuals who carried it out.)
Just because you can assign a probability to an event does not mean you can predict it in any real sense, especially as the value approaches zero.
There is some non-zero probability that all the atoms in my right hand will simultaneously jump a few centimeters to the left while I’m typing this. It might take several 100 times the lifespan of the universe for it to actually happen.
We live in a world where risk is part of the game. You can manage risk but you can’t altogether avoid it. Central bankers with advanced degrees (and just enough math skills to be dangerous) seem to be very adept at concentrating risk and enabling much larger blowups than would otherwise occur.
The first article rightly points out that excess leverage was the primary cause of the last crisis. Why hasn’t that leverage been curtailed?
Perhaps the question we should be asking is why we allow central banks to continue their meddling and who they really serve.
thomas18z MARCH 19, 2015 AT 9:37 PM “Perhaps the question we should be asking is why we allow central banks to continue their meddling and who they really serve.”
That question sir is one that would resonate with the quiet world- its non accusational and reasonable by any standard. Who represents this enterprise which impacts my standard of living and what are your objectives? Which segues to Where do you claim your authorities? Man i like it!
Alaskaroots MARCH 20, 2015 AT 9:31 PM “Perhaps the question we should be asking is why we allow central banks to continue their meddling and who they really serve.”
No kidding! The best question of the day! I wish it was GAME OVER for them. I’m so tired of these people not thinking twice about enslaving humanity. Booooo! Time for a new game.
JC- (chant) the grand man, the grand man!)
thomas18z MARCH 20, 2015 AT 10:37 PM As much as i feel the urge to go running off to the sound of the guns, i feel a stronger sense of tactical patience thanks to my brother JC. Instead, now may be the best time to take a knee, face out and drink water….
Usernameisfake MARCH 19, 2015 AT 8:22 PM Please explain how QE constitutes deleveraging?
JC Collins MARCH 20, 2015 AT 2:22 AM Read the linked G30 document.
beachdude2 MARCH 19, 2015 AT 11:55 PM Long video related to the Solari Report on the “Breakaway Civilization.” A bit “out there” but speaks to the level of fraud within the current system are where the money is flowing to. At the 58 minute mark, he starts to discuss what happened to all of the Axis plunder including Nazi and Japanese “Yamashita’s” Gold.
Same conference, this on on the Black Budget and massive financial fraud by Catherine Ausin Fitts.
Title: The Black Budget: What Does It Mean to US Federal Budget, the Economy and You?
irrelevant111 MARCH 20, 2015 AT 12:38 AM Most appear to bring forth the grim reaper as an only outcome. Many pawns on the chessboard.
I would love to know the crystal ball some have their hands around and if they will exist if or when it comes to pass. Food for Thought…
beachdude2 MARCH 20, 2015 AT 12:49 AM The relevance of the above videos to this site is:
1. If there is any shred of truth to these, how will they continue to fund these Black Op budgets under a new monetary regime that de-emphasizes the USD?
2. What happens to all the plundered wealth, including Yamashita’s Gold which JC discusses on this site and seems to imply that said Gold is being exchanged in a swap for the 1913 Chinese Gold Bonds.
Will the keepers of this significant wealth really let go of it especially if they are at the center of the Military Industrial Complex?
Dripfood MARCH 20, 2015 AT 9:43 AM Wow, JC, that G30 document is so illuminating! They are rebalancing the system with Friedman’s proposal of Overt Permanent Money Finance as a counter weight to the excessive Private Money Finance of the past decades.
QE and Basil III serve exactly the same goal, with QE RESTORING the excessive private debt/credit creation and Basil III PREVENTING it in future years. The paper also suggest the Basil III reserve fraction isn’t nearly enough to restore balance. Basel IV must be in the making as we speak…
If I see it correctly, that makes QE predominantly a massive transfiguration of privately held (interest baring) sovereign debt into CB- held interest free sovereign debt, right?
JC Collins MARCH 20, 2015 AT 11:16 AM Yes, and repackaged nicely for the SDRM process.
Dripfood MARCH 20, 2015 AT 2:00 PM Ha! Excellent. Not so evil after all…
Am I right in thinking the contraction of the money supply has actually been happening during QE through forced reduction/repayment of commercial and consumer debt, while governmentsare being prepared for CB-determined permanent deficits through Friedman’s POMF?
Because if that’s true, the SDRM is just a process to finalize POMF and QE was also a nice diversion for companies and consumers to swallow the contraction without realizing it was already happening!
That just leaves the implementation of Basel IV and the significant reduction of private credit creation. All in all it looks like a coup by the BIS on commercial banks! Or am I missing something?
JC Collins MARCH 20, 2015 AT 2:15 PM You are right on the money! At least as close as we regular folk can get to understanding the process. This is why I’ve always stated that QE was building the framework for the multilateral system.
Dripfood Thanks for the confirmation. Now I also see how the villainization of commercial bankers CSI will come in handy somewhere within the next 3 years…. Thanks again JC
Daneackerman MARCH 20, 2015 AT 12:46 PM Great piece JC. I had to look into Mephistopheles having not encountering it prior to now. “Debt, Money, and Mephistopheles”
Debt and money are fairly clear but Mephistopheles is a bit deeper and may have some hidden meaning.
For instance “Mephistopheles (/ˌmɛfɪˈstɒfɪˌliːz/, German pronunciation: [mefɪˈstɔfɛlɛs]; also Mephistophilus, Mephistophilis, Mephostopheles, Mephisto, Mephastophilis and variants) is a demon featured in German folklore. He originally appeared in literature as the demon in the Faust legend, and he has since appeared in other works as a stock character version.
The word may derive from the Hebrew mephitz, meaning “distributor”, and tophel, meaning “liar”; “tophel” is short for tophel shequer, the literal translation of which is “falsehood plasterer”.”
Looking into the Faust legend a bit this summary was interesting.
“Faust is bored and depressed with his life as a scholar. After an attempt to take his own life, he calls on the Devil for further knowledge and magic powers with which to indulge all the pleasure and knowledge of the world. In response, the Devil’s representative, Mephistopheles, appears.
He makes a bargain with Faust: Mephistopheles will serve Faust with his magic powers for a set number of years, but at the end of the term, the Devil will claim Faust’s soul, and Faust will be eternally damned. The term usually stipulated in the early tales is 24 years; one year for each of the hours in a day.”
beachdude2 MARCH 20, 2015 AT 5:25 PM Seems that the London Gold Fix ends today and the Shanghai “Physical Only” exchange takes over pricing on Monday. Many pundits think that the Gold Price will soar but I am less certain.
While the new SDR bonds will be partially asset backed, it would seem to me that TPTB would want to exchange the paper SDR at the most favorable exchange rate to key commodities like Gold & Oil as possible.
Under that reasoning, as I covered In a previous post, I believe that Deflation will be used to drive key CRB components lower which will also facilitate the SDRM restructuring.
Here are some links with detail the changes for the Gold Fix. Note that these pundits think this will be positive for the price. Perhaps over the longer term but I am less certain shorter term.
Roger Parness MARCH 20, 2015 AT 5:33 PM My read is: we’ll do whatever we **** well please including dancing with the devil and it will all work out perfectly…. or not. Arrogant sots. Permanent QE. Biggest check kiting scam in human history.
irrelevant111 MARCH 21, 2015 AT 1:49 AM This reminds me off those that fail to tow the line. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfR1TwosYQg Enjoy…