Post From Currency Chatter
Seraphim: Question? My understanding is that the CBI is sending its Reserves to the banks at the tune of somewhere around 5 Billion per month to prop up the Dinar. If this continues, will this not deplete all of the Reserves in time and bankrupt the country? Would you'all see this as an indicator that Iraq "has" to raise the value of the Dinar? Or am I seeing this matter incorrectly?
Aloha Alex: ...or have the "authors of the plan" devised a sinister scheme to screw everyone over?
Tommy Charles: We need for Randy Koonce to have a conference call....It is long overdue...Anyone else agree?
Seraphim: The whole thing just doesn't make any sense...
Oldwazhisname: Sorry, but Randy's theory is not sound. His source of information is someone who knows someone who is connected to the Royal family of another country in the ME.
That is the type of "boots on the ground" intel that misleads everyone. For me, the information that makes the most sense is to meticulously connect a narrative of what has happened and what is happening from a big picture stand point. I tried to do that with a 40 page summary about a month back.
It also addresses Seraphim's concerns about how the CBI reserves are actually used and what to expect going forward. I tried to take all of the banker-speak out of the narrative and put it into plain English.
For those who haven't or to those who fall back into the hopium of gurus who try to get people pumped up with some off-base intel, please go back and read the narrative I put together a month ago.
Its a very long read but it will bring you to a point where you no longer need so much help in seeing the reality of our present situation. Do a search of my name and it should pop up. I don't post so much that it should still lead you to that post with alink to the summary.
Mike: Seraphim, I would definitely take the time to read OWHN's white paper regarding the dinar, it's informative and it's in layman's terms. Also, here's a link that demonstrates dollar flows in Iraq. Frank R. Gunter is a Professor of Economics at Lehigh University and a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
This study is based on discussions at the November 2014 Iraq Economics, Development, and Policy program at the American University of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates.
The CBI's reserves are accumulated through deposits of petro dollars in exchange for dinars to pay for salaries and other domestic expenses, right now the balance has been knocked out because of the price of oil and the reserves are eroding, in the past 18 months the CBI's lost $15 billion dollars.
(From $74 billion to $59 billion) Iraq is spending as much at the auctions as they are generating in oil sales, roughly $5 billion a month. You can't make payroll, $4 billion a month and spend $750 million a month fighting ISIL without the reserves becoming depleted.
As far as RK goes, I agree with Brule, OWHN and DW, it just doesn't hold water anymore. Iraq is a sovereign country and if they wanted to change economic and monetary policy, they'd do it already.
How many times have the Iraqi's ignored the instructions and pleadings from the US? No NGL law, no unity, persecution of Sunni's and imprisonment, Iran flying through their airspace and the list goes on.
Iraq regularly ignores the advice of the US, are we to believe they're going to toe the line on money?
That's a stretch. Besides, intel and conjecture have gotten us nowhere in the past, it's difficult to disprove RK's theory. It's like trying to prove you're not a witch.
Phantom: Funny how everybody including myself hides behind an aka name, but Randy doesn't. He has nothing to hide and is truthful. I think he's doing the best he can with the information he has, and right now he may not have any worth posting.
I've been in this 4 1/2 years and I find myself as impatient, but that's not going to speed this up. Interesting to sit back and watch and read their posts displaying how they handle themselves.
This game is certaintly not for the weak of heart or emotions. What message and example are you setting before others? Be blessed.
Skylimit: The challenge is that it's not just about Iraq. Iraq was chosen for regime change by our planners for important reasons unknown to us. OWHN does a very good job pulling together the history of this journey but Iraq is sovereign only to the point where their interests continue to align with ours.
Iraq's leadership was removed, their currency value dropped to the basement floor, military destroyed and access to global markets limited by our decisions. To think that the IMF or WB are free of political influence from the US in this matter is naive.
The US and coalition have shown very poor leadership in a part of the world that is most difficult to begin with. Other ME countries are a political, economic and security mess with redeemable currencies of value which refutes the arguement that Iraq must do this, this and this to join the party unless it's required by outside interests.
There are been signs that we are close but ultimately the decision to move forward will coincide with all the laws being passed at once that have already been read twice and that the US and coalition interests are protected. This is as much a political decision as it is a nuts and bolts decision of fundamentals concerning Iraq itself.
KJWayne: skylimit and Phantom, I agree tto the max of what you are saying. NO ONE that WE know can give us a date or a time that this ,so called RV, will happen. It is to vital to the sucees of the middle east for this Iraq Package to fail. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN DRAWN IN AND A SOAP OPERA HAS BEGUN.!
Don't get caught up in the day to day activities or the article of the week . Let it happen on it.s own because that is what it is going to do anyway! Check in once a week or once a day .
It ain't going to pass you by! You will not miss your turn at the bank! Just keep practicing being a millionaire and SOON, it will come !
Mike: I don't know, skylimit, I thought the reason we went into Iraq was pretty clear, Saddam invaded Kuwait and started murdering, raping and pillaging the country.
There was nothing mysterious about that. Ditto for the currency, the US had nothing to do with devaluing the dinar, Saddam's crazy spending did all that for us.
i would agree, the US has influence over the IMF and WB, but these same guys are telling Iraq to clean up their mess and move Iraq forward and all Iraq does is ignore them.
All you have to do is go back and read the Article IV consultations from the IMF, which they put out every year, and see that Iraq ignores their advice, continuously. If we really controlled Iraq, wouldn't they accomplish some of the items on the list?
I would also add that sanctions and conflict/civil war always hurt an economy and currency. The rial is cratering and the Syrian pound has lost a ton of value as well, a currency needs stability and security for it to succeed and Iraq is in chaos, rightfully, the currency reflects that.
Jordan, Isreal, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and many other ME countries have stable currencies because their countries are stable, Iraq, Iran and Syria aren't.
I'm not trying to be argumentative, but Iraq's problems are simple, it's the second oldest profession in the world, leaders stealing from the people. Over and over again we see articles about the corruption in the country, especially as it relates to the auctions.
We've read many articles where the imports don't match the dollars that are spent, the wealthy leadership, in Iraq, are stealing the treasury blind. It's why Iraq can't get the tariff's implemented, tariff's will create an atmospere of culpability and accountability, something the corrupt want no part of.
Until Iraq can get a hold on it's corruption, nothing will change because too many are making a mint off the old system.
I don't blame the US on this deal, it's all the corrupt leaders in Iraq that are creating this mess. We don't need to find complicated ways to explain this that are shrouded in mystery and intrigue, this is plain old dirty politics.
At this point, I don't know if Iraq can pull out of this tail spin without something dramatic occurring, it's clear that Abadi isn't strong enough to overcome the corruption. Here's hoping something changes...soon. " We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid " Benjamin Franklin
Schízz: Iraq do have a way out of this mess in November, here's hoping they choose to take it and don't choose to continue to just do nothing and keep plodding on..........they really need to take it or imo they are screwed next year.