DreamWeaver Previously conjectured releasing 50ks is bridge move by CBI--which is all about delete the zeros; but don't at all think it is solely about pulling in large notes.
Those 2014 denoms are already being exchanging for tattered denoms. 50ks will do that PLUS something that may surprise people. I've no need, any longer, to hammer down every detail.
Not important--my RV puzzle complete enough to be comfortable that CBI following Shabibi's delete-the-zeros blueprint.
Posting my beliefs last week on 50ks in detail, so not going to reiterate except to say that releasing 50,000 notes is not at all about preparing the stage for the project.
As I posted--when it was announced in February--the stage was already prepared & set when they moved to pull those 50s--THAT WAS THE ACTION that verified Phase 2 of delete the zeros is under way--which INCLUDES rate change, introducing new lowers, and moving to Article VIII. Very exciting Phase, for sure.
This is just what I expected to see announced in May--though I still expect to see action by CBI to follow shortly--which probably means releasing those 50s in June ... July at latest.
Probably will be released without us knowing, though--as that's their MO. Didn't ever announce those 2014 denoms were released into circulation last Spring--but they were.
Expecting to be awed the next few months--as my intuition is whispering we haven't see anything yet. So, I'm going to just watch what they DO without worrying about every facet, as no doubt in my mind the Phase we have been awaiting since 2012 is UNDERWAY.
I'm going to take vacation, give the brain a rest, and relax. Will check back in for next CBI action, as 50ks being released is done deal. Is next mechanism (action) introducing new lowers, etc? Boy do I hope so ... here's to NEXT! :D
JD Blue What a news day... I just want to share my take on how I read this stuff... whenever Enorste refers to "the float".. I simply dismiss it... as his pet theory....
I look to the other PERTINENT analysis.. and disregard the chicken and egg argument about float vs Rv.
It simply does not matter... the CBI will do what the CBI will do... and them getting busy and moving FORWARD is the only info I am looking for. Float be **.... just start the ** thing..-
in whatever fashion they gonna do it. Once they change the rate in any fashion.. we are all on the home stretch. It is irrelevant whatever M2 number we argue about... it is what it is... they do what they gonna do.. and they aint gonna tell us the truth.
All that is relevant is incredible proof like the article today.. talking of "removing the leading zeros"... these other arguments about M2 and what method they will lift the rate by.. are blind alleys .. which have sapped and drained the energy from this community for years.
It is irrelevant. Movement forward is GREAT NEWS. YAY. Big fracking YAY!
JD Blue SO THE IQD TEAM IS STATING THAT BETWEEN THIS AND OTHER ARTICLES THE GOI AND THE CBI INTENDS TO USE THE 50K NOTES AS A BRIDGE TO DRAW IN OTHER BIG ZERO NOTES, AND THEN WILL FOLLOW WITH THE DELETE THE ZEROES PROJECT. ~ OOTW
JD Blue That’s the same that Breitling said. ~ WCB
JD Blue IQD TEAM - Punisher took notes Exciting call....this call could be called "Clarifications'!
L J says he (Straight Talking Mike as well) is glad that they are clarifying things with what has been going on in the news the last several days.
Says Abadi is trying to get these laws passed.
Says the INVESTMENT LAW could be passed as early as next week! Says he is hopeful also for Accountability and Justice Law, National Guard Law and Federal Court Law. JL hopes before May is out those BIG LAWS could be passed!
Says Saleh came out about the 50,000 note to make things clear! Both LJ and Mike say there is a fantastic reason why these 50,000 notes are coming out. Both men are 100% sure these notes will be issued.
STRAIGHT TALKING MIKE went into great detail about the 50,000 notes. He says last week it didn't sit well with him about all the talk of these large bills. So he did some digging. He started looking back to articles as far back as 2011...and 2012 and 2013.
Says these 50,000 notes are an important step towards monetary reform!
Says these bills will not increase the money supply....articles they read back this up 100%
Says NO INFLATION will happen because of these bills. Again, Mike and LJ read articles to support these FACTS!!!. They are not changing the amount of dinar in the system...they are only replacing a note!!!! I repeat....They are not changing the amount of dinar in the system...they are only replacing a note!!!
Says they are not removing the zeros right now....they are in an unstable circumstance. Says the value of the dinar will come from the volume of activity when things are up and running so they can support the exchange rate.
Says the 50,000 note will create the environment to delete the zeros!!! I repeat...these 50,000 bill WILL CREATE THE ENVIRONMENT TO DELETE THE ZEROS. This is a "calculated" decision that has been in the works for over 2 years now (going all the way back to 2011).
Says these bills will pull in the larger bills (the 25's and the 10's) with the 000 on them. This is an interim step!
Says this is a short term fix because they are not adding any more volume into the economy. This is not a move you make to stay at this spot forever. That is why they got rid of that 50 note in April so there was no confusion.
Says this move is not independent of DELETING OF THE ZEROS (this move is apart of it). This is a move to add more purchasing power to the dinar.
Says they still NEED TO PASS THE IMPORTANT LAWS!!!
Says this puts pressure on the G.O.I. to do what they need to do!
Mike says this was an eye opener for him and all the articles are telling us this 50,000 is apart of the process of DELETING THE ZEROS/GIVING MORE PURCHASING POWER TO THE DINAR!
DreamWeaver Agree, Blue ... been great news since February IMO as that's when delete the zeros went from yellow light (since 2012) to GREEN. Thankfully, Shabibi's Original Plan is well underway--finally. What's not to LOVE???
Now that I've reconciled the pieces in my RV puzzle that weren't fitting in, I'm going to turn 90% of my focus back to post RV outline/blueprint. Lots done, but more to do. Rather focus on preparing and protecting what may soon be real rather than conjecturing about what I've already reconciled.
PM, I'm with you as far as July-September. So, Hi-Ho, Hi-Ho it's off to work I go ... on that other most important blueprint: post RV. Enjoy the summer, all--I'm sure going to! ~ DW
Jdinar Thanks Blue and DreamW for analysis... been silent for a while, but one must wonder about the aftermath of this.
If an Iraqi brings in his 25k notes or othere 3 zero's to exchange for a 50k note, what's the next move?
Will the citizen on the next day go and buy groceries with his new 50k note and get change? what change will he get? Surely not more 3 zero notes.
Will he get a bunch of 250's?...500's?
Or perhaps, this opens the door for the smart cards, visa's,. etc. to be activated and people will be motivated or required to start the paperless transactions....in turn keeping the 50k note for however long. If this is the case, be looking for that announcment.
Regarless, change is happening.
Dream, I haven't seen any proof of the new 3 zero's from 2014 to exchange for the torn 3 zero notes. Have you? I wonder if any dealers have them. I always wondered about these notes.
Flyboy Thanks, Blue... All of us are thankfull for your good work here...I also agree they lie to us about everything...one rabbit hole after another...jmo
Lotus Thank you, Blue, for a factual and inspiring thread! This is incredibly exciting news altogether.
JD Blue My take, jdinar, is that Iraq is highly dollarized... they have very little IQD in their everyday economy.... and a lot of these transactions being spoken of are going to be digital anyways.
From what I gather... some Dinarians, who have bought IQD lately, have gotten the new notes... but like I said... I don't think there is much IQD being used in country...salaries are paid digitaly....
large governement payments are made in petro dollars... and they have been vacuuming the in country currency for several years now.
Talking with D2D the other night.. he is the one who convinced me... the currency cupboard in country is bare.... he gave me example afer example of it.. from the tattered dinar articels... to the citizens complaining that they deposited Clean Dinar.. and only are offered digital upon demand.. or tattered...
he gave example after example... and each time I remembered the article he was talking about....his memory is amazing.
Read how the large US currrency was used when it was printed... citizens were not walking around with large notes. It was primarily banking transactions.
Look.. I don't have all the answers... but there aint a lot of IQD in their economy... I know that is a fact.
People in our realm.. who have taken 25,000 notes there... amaze the citizens with the crisp clean notes... the citizens ask "Where did you get such a note?" they literaly have not seen uncirculated notes in many years.
Iraq is heavily dollarized. That is the bottom line. These 50,000 notes gonna suck up a lot of what is left... held by wealthy people and corporations, etc... the common man is dead broke anyway.... JMHO.
Jdinar Thanks Blue, dollarization makes sense...forgot about that.
When they add this 50k into the market, I feel they are somehow going to require the citizens to exchange and/or put another time limit on the 3 zero notes. If they put another time limit on it, watch out for panic on our 25k notes. This could be a perceived plan to draw in more dinar outside Iraq. Which begs the question, will dealers be offering this 50k note as well?...time will tell.
JD Blue lol.. too many what if's for me.... so much speculation as it is.. I dont wanna create any more.
They have said all along.. the two currencies (of the same de La Re family) will exist side by side for up to 2 years.... I remember one article said even longer.
Mally Thx for the articles Blue. JMO but I still dont think we will see a 50k note. If we do I dont think it is a good thing. The story of the banks needing them for big transactions doesnt make any sense.
Yes we had them here but that was before the advent of the computer. They are trying to get away from paper as much as possible now and have everything electronic. Adding paper that has that kind of value just doesnt add up to me.
Mike Good stuff, Mally, it doesn't make sense to me either. If we're going to listen to what Mike and LJ say from the IQD team in Punisher's notes, maybe we should listen to a small portion of the call.
I fast forwarded through LJ's part and got right to Mike, and he seems a little confused. At one point he says the 50K won't be inflationary and then later in the call he says the prices may go up to facilitate the use of the 50K. To me, that sounds like inflation.
rissas dad I dont buy that its for banks to make big transactions, I believe its to facilitate less amount of physical currency in circulation. Saleh has said as much but I also understand the counterpoints.
However, since Saleh and the CBI have been talking about doing this as far back as 2011, to me its a sure sign that whatever they are going to do and whatever the endgame is, Iraq is in the process of it, which if you believe that there is money to be made with the dinar is a GREAT thing.
It has begun which is far better than spinning in circles as when Maliki was in power.
No one here knows for sure what the end result is. We've all been in this so long and are so jaded towards them and all the BS from gurus over the years that its almost easier to look for things that support a dire ending than to trust our initial reaction when hearing about the dinar.
Its such a small amount invested, why worry? We all need it and can use it but worse case scenario, Ive learned vastly more than I knew before.
Preacher Man Thanks, September 28, 4th blood mon alignment, on Jewish holiday, DW, I truly believe, we are close, to many alignments, a happening Mr. Inbestor?
Preacher Man thanks everyone for all your study and hard work I believe a prize is waiting for us Mr. Inbestor?
Dr. Gann Thanks guys and gals good Thread :)
hi-five I need help understanding how issuing a larger 3 zero note- in order to mop up smaller 3 zero notes- makes any sense. They will still have 3 zero notes in circulation.
In studying what Iraq has been doing over the past many months, most of us have concluded that Iraq is preparing to add value to their currency. Unless I have miscalculated, this 50,000 dinar note does not fit into the process -- unless they have decided to postpone the monetary reform.
I have no proof, but I don't believe too many members of parliament know the details of the monetary reform plan. If "the plan" was well known, it would be leaked, and by now all over the news and common knowledge. And, we wouldn't be bashing our head against the wall trying to interpret what's going on.
G-Lin 13/05/2015 10:01 GMT Parliamentary Finance: Print new monetary categories in preparation for the deletion of zeros from currency
BAGHDAD - and babysit- said the Parliamentary Finance Committee member Masood Haider, that directed the central bank to issue and print new cash categories will be preceded by the preparation of the decision to delete the zeros of the currency.
Haider said, that "the central bank decided to print large cash classes in preparation for the application of the decision to delete the zeros of the currency in the coming period."
He added that "the parliamentary Finance Committee discussed with the Governor of the Central Bank on the Keywords subject of printing new categories in the event of cash availability after the rise in oil prices and achieve financial abundance."
The member of the Finance Committee, said that "the Central Bank has decided to reprint some of the larger denominations to prepare the application of the decision to delete the zeros of the currency in the coming period."
He pointed out that "the decision has undergone extensive study to assess the economic feasibility and to be implemented depending on the timing proposed by the administration to the central bank."
Haider said that "the new denominations to be printed will be of category 50 100 thousand Iraqi dinars."
JD Blue For the record... several folks I listen to.. are also saying they don't believe the 50,000 notes will be 50,000.. they think they are gonna be the 50 notes... like the articels from 2011 said... like Saleh said... so the point is... none of us know exactly what they are gonna do... and take all the analysis with a grain of salt..
I refer back to the bing translation... the OP.. that stated the "removal of the leading zeros"...
that is a big Big BIG statement... YAY.
Jdinar yes Blue...too many variables.
I will say this, dollarization must not have been to effective if they do indeed need to issue the 50k notes. Perhaps your right that the Iraq weathly are hoarding the 3 zero notes. If the 3 zero notes and the 50k notes are going to exist for 2 years then what is the rush, to exchange.
All things point to Iraq wanting to go international and raise the value now by their actions, which makes this all the more conflicting.
Enorste makes some good points with past articles, but unless the CBI stimulates some kind of urgency for exchanging 3 zero notes further reducing the note count, then waiting will be the agenda.
...and your right about the 50k notes or 50 dinar notes...nobody knows we shall see..
Mike I thought I would take a minute and add my side of the discussion that Steve and I had over at DA. For the record, I don't believe that Iraq is going to add a 50K note to the supply, unless they plan on using the existing system for some time into the future.
Steve's idea, culled from statements made in 2011/12, states that by printing a 50K note, Iraq will reduce the money supply from roughly 4 billion notes to between 1 and 1.8 billion notes. I don't understand the logic, how is Iraq going to reduce the money supply by 75%-50% by printing larger denom's?
Logically, Iraqi's will continue to need lower denomination's to make change for the larger notes that are coming out. When I read the below article, it says the process of deleting the zero's will remove the large notes, not printing a larger denom.
Iraq Central Bank plans to issue three large banknotes after deletion of zeros from Dinar
January 16, 2012 Saleh added that "the three banknotes consist of 200 dinars, which is equal to 200 thousand dinars at present time and a 100 dinars, which is equal to 100 thousand dinars, and a banknote of 50 dinars, which is equal to 50 thousand dinars, in addition to the one & two dinar coins as well as half, quarter of a dinar and 100 fils and dirham (50 fils)".
Saleh indicated that "the deletion of three zeros from the Iraqi dinar would shorten the number of banknotes of four billion paper, which is equal to 30 trillion dinars exist in the Iraqi market to one billion and 800 million paper only," asserting that "the currency exchange will not affect the per capita income or over its wealth or its contractual obligations."
Saleh pointed out that "the Board of Directors has approved the decision to delete the zeros after the completion of designs currency bearing the legacy of Iraq and its history, civilizations, as well as for discussion by the Financial and Economic Committee of the Council of Ministers,"
noting that "the Bank pending the Board's approval to begin the replacement of the new currency which must be with the new financial year and proposed by the Bank with the beginning of the year 2013."
Salih stressed that "the process of replacing the currency will take two years to prevent any disruption in the process of delivery and receipt," explaining that "the banks will continue to receive the old currency for ten years as rights and not negotiable."
The central bank has been accused in the (12 September 2011), government agencies of obstructing monetary reform and vowed to sue, blaming the authorities responsible for exposing the financial interests of the country to danger.
The adviser to Prime Minister for Economic Affairs said on (25 August 2011), to raise zeros from the currency is the biggest corruption in Iraq if it was during this period, and fall under the name of tampering with the economic, warning of "mafias currency" is preparing to rig the trillions of Iraqi dinars to replace them during the planned changes.
The Iraqi Central Bank Governor Sinan Shabibi, stressed during independent corps meeting with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which took place in the (June 19, 2011), his willingness to create all the preparations to replace the Iraqi currency.
It is noteworthy that some economists believe that Iraq is ready for the time being to delete the zeros of the Iraqi dinar, pointing out that the deletion needs to be a security and political stability as well as economic stability.
Mike: Another thing Steve and I disagree on is the float theory. Steve believes that Iraq will print the 50K note which will trigger the "delete the zero's" process and Iraq will initiate the float. My thoughts are that Iraq will "delete the zero's" from the existing rate of 0.00086 and make the dinar worth 0.86 to the dollar.
After that, Iraqi's will begin to "turn in" the larger notes through the regular course of business and after two years or so, there will be no large denominations in the country.
In the article above, Saleh states pretty much the same thing, "the Board of Directors has approved the decision to delete the zeros after the completion of designs currency bearing the legacy of Iraq and its history, civilizations", so, once the zero's are deleted, Iraq will issue the lower denom's.
Then, it will take roughly two years to pull in all the larger denom's and Iraq will be left with 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 denominated notes.
The thing is, when has a country ever printed larger denominations in preparation for increasing the value of their currency? I've looked, and there's no reference to this kind of event in modern economic history.
Countries print larger denom's, and by default, money itself, for two reasons, to improve liquidity (think quantitive easing) and hyper-inflation. Well, Iraq doesn't have an inflation problem, but it is having a liquidity problem.
No one could answer this question at DA, so I'll pose it here at CC: Has a country ever printed larger denomination's in anticipation of increasing value?
For me, if Iraq prints these larger notes they're going to continue to kick the can down the road instead of beginning the process of adding value to the dinar. The excuses are varied; political, security, economy and finally stability, but they're all excuses.
Are we now to believe Saleh when he says they're adding a 50K note to the supply because they're ready to begin the process of deleting the zero's?
If Iraq was really that close to beginning, wouldn't it make more sense to just hold off for a couple of months and then start?
How does anyone believe that printing larger 50K notes will remove 75%-50% of the notes, which is Saleh's reasoning behind the move? --
Mike Here's an article from 2012 that explains the process:
Economic parliamentary: delete the zeros will begin work next year specialists advised to apply the deletion of zeros instead of issuing a large coin categories
October 22, 2014
Economic parliamentary: the deletion of zeros will begin work next year, specialists advise applying the deletion of zeros instead of issuing currency large classes
Preparation / economics editor
Commission announced the economy and investment parliamentary, that, the deletion of zeros from the currency will be in the next year, confirming that it was hosted by the Governor of the Central Bank on the Keywords to discuss the file to delete the zeros and the fight against money laundering crimes.
The committee member said Jawad al-Bolani, during a press conference at the parliament building with members of the Economic Committee that "the things that are discussed within the Committee, are stocks traded for the mass of cash was responsible central bank, as well as laws that help to develop the work of the Central Bank, which will be legislation includes Law Central Bank, banks and money laundering law. "
For his part, says economic expert Dargham Muhammad Ali in a press statement: that the application of the restructuring of the currency after deleting three zeros which is a necessity in light of inflation digital transfer of Iraq's budget Alumblyaria to Altrliunah,
and these figures are not commensurate with the value of the Iraqi budget and size, there is no no justification for issuing coins with large groups of perhaps will cause problems Aqtsadah.oadav Muhammad Ali:
The project to delete the three zeroes involves finding values less than currently in circulation that does not solve the crisis of the Iraqi currency flabby digitally, which poses a scenario deletion of zeros balanced scenario in light of the stability of the currency.
He continued that in the event of a fear can increase the transition period for trading currencies new and old together, either to find alternatives to this project, such as the issuance of currencies with large groups or small metal they are partial solutions and prosthesis and circumvention of the small by the big problem.
For his part, said economic expert Majid picture in an interview: The Central Bank of Iraq in agreement with the Ministry of Finance presented the studies necessary for the process of deletion of zeros since 2008 and has taken all actions relating to the restructuring of the Iraqi currency,
including the design of the currency and denomination and the quality of paper used her, who confirmed that from the finest stainless paper cash or difficulty rigged.
He added that the executive branch has decided to postpone the process of restructuring of the Iraqi currency has led to the cessation of all actions related to this project,
explaining that the aim of the process of restructuring is to reduce the cost of handling and facilitate transactions handled especially medium and large as well as to facilitate the draw pricing policy in the country.
He stressed the need to accompany the process a package of measures distributed responsibility on all departments and state institutions and banks in order to develop solutions to the problems and obstacles that can arise during the process of restructuring, including cash, and accounting, and security as well as take the necessary measures to destroy the currency received
Almgheih.oahar that experience in Iraq to replace the currency in 2003 was very rich, but did not exceed only change the shape of the currency and replace it, so it did not need to accounting requirements or legal, calling for the need to educate departments, banks and citizens feasibility of restructuring the currency,
as well as the use of modern technologies to detect fraud, also called non- the intervention of politicians and subjecting such decisions to Mazidat and political skirmishes, because that is not in the interest of monetary policy and the Iraqi economy.
It said the financial expert Thamer Alheimus: The most prominent benefits of the deletion of zeros is to create flexibility and ease of trading, and gave the example that in the case of activation of the decision will be minted coins to the values of small Kkhmsin fils or less,
and under that will highlight the prices between the fourth dinars and 1 / 2 dinars or less, and thus would be unlikely in a large increase in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar in the case of Sir prudent monetary policy according to which it will contribute to improving the access of families and low-income social strata.
Comments may be made at the end of Part 3 Thank You