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EP report on Iraq: Al-Maliki may either give in to protestors demand or resign
NCRI – Mr. Struan Stevenson, the president of the European Parliament Delegation for Relations with Iraq published a report on the political crisis and civil uprisings happening in that country.
The report published on January 12, 2013, concludes that:
1- Most political commentators have concluded that the current uprising has provided an unprecedented tipping point for toleration of the Maliki government.
Read More Link On Right
2. Iraqiya and other factions that previously participated in the government now know that any sign of reconciliation with Maliki will bring about public outrage against them.
3. Contrary to last year’s uprising, this time the concentration of the demonstrations mostly in Sunni provinces, supported by parts of the government on one hand and a disinclination of the US to get involved on the other, leaves al-Maliki’s hands effectively tied.
With the first signs of repressive reaction and violence to quell the riots, Iraqiya will have no choice but to pull out of the government and Parliament. This will significantly increase the public outrage against al-Maliki.
4. Al-Maliki only has two paths which he can follow, either to give concession in order to calm the crisis, which will lead to his resignation and free elections, or resorting to force, which will radicalise and spread the demonstrations and could sow the seeds of a revolution. Neither choice is attractive for the Iraqi Prime Minister.
Please click here to read Mr. Struan Stevenson's full report to the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iraq on the political crisis and civil uprisings happening in the country. LINK
TLAR: IMHO the actual report made for the EU Parliament portrays exactly what we at DA have been witnessing day by day. I think the report is pretty much accurate with one exception. IMHO the report says that the US is sitting back watching to see what direction this goes.
That is IMO, a half truth. I believe the US has been pulling the strings since the arrest warrants were issued against Shabibi. If you look at the options available the US has to remove a dictator of a soveign nation they can all be narrowed to only two options. Option one is militarily. Option two is to support and bolster the growing opposition. I believe we are witnesses to the second option.
The US has done this all over the world with some success but the difference this time is this is a country we are knee deep in having rebuilt it from the ground up. If you look at the players they have all been challenging Maliki for 3 years, but it was not until Maliki's Judiciary put out arrest warrants for Shabibi did the US and the IMF/UN take a proactive position.
IMO the US gave the opposition the nod to go against the regime which the opposition has tried to do for quite a while with no success. The opposition has not only received no support previously from the US but in many instances the US tried to stop dissent against Maliki..
The US also armed them with facts relating to corruption and we threatened the Maliki government against using force against the demonstrators. Indirectly the US is responsible also for the support of the free press in Iraq closing the door on government sponsored propaganda. Without these tools you can't be a dictator.
Within a short period of the arrest warrants being issued on Shabibi, the IMF/UN mounted a two stage effort. The first was to protect the money and the second was to prove Shabibi's arrest warrants were politically motivated. To protect the CBI reserves that are held in the New York Federal Reserve, we know that all reserves were frozen and all withdrawals of funds other than those that were absolutely needed to run the government were not available to the government.
Maliki, in effect could not further damage Iraq by spending these funds. So, what am I trying to say? It is IMHO that the US made the strategic decision to remove Maliki from within by giving not just their approval to do so but they also provided the tools to do this. In addition the US most likely told Iraqiya to get their people out and protest while the press hammered every day at Maliki.
Documents were released proving that Maliki, his son and his party are corrupt. Every time someone in authority spoke out against the Maliki government it emboldened the next person to do the same until today, we see from all sectors of Iraq, they are screaming for Maliki's removal. Yesterday all of his staff left for a supposed soccer game taking with them the families. IMO they won't return.
So when Maliki, if he is still in Iraq which I've questioned, makes a call to tell one of his guys to do something, the phone just rings. Nobodies "home". This IMO should be over sometime next week. We will hear Maliki has resigned and has left the country.
I believe that this has already taken place. He has left the country but the NA who is jockeying for a position has tried to use his resignation as a tool to broker the next PM to take Maliki's place. Jaafari tried to get the blocks together to offer himself up as the next PM but was soundly rejected by Barzini and Iraqiya will no longer negotiate with the NA.
HANDOVERFIST: I don't think we're rid of Maliki yet. :(
OLDWAZHISNA: Tlar, I read the EP analysis differently. I figure that this guy has more insight and resources so his take on things is probably better than most if not one of the most accurate we could be lucky enough to read.
What I was struck by was that while some in dinarland have the very basics right (and some are so far off the mark as to not even be on the same continent), the best sites I listen to (here, Wang Dang, RK) are/were shorto in several areas: for instance, I don't ever remember anyone making the clear pronouncement that Maliki was aggressively removing opposition opponents in such a methodical method. You would have to put the CBI and Shabbibi into that category, too.
We were distracted by the trumped up charges and the other possibles of political break-throughs to see with the clarity of this report. Maliki was methodically and systematically clearing the map for his domination (and to some extent the Shiite agenda domination) of the affairs of this country.
His agenda would never support a free market society filled with democracy and opportunity. As we watch things going forward, we need to move our obervation perspectives a full measure forward to embrass this understanding. As we look for political break throughs, announcements, set-backs and every other outcome from this point forward, we need to see from this reference point.
Maliki has to go. The factions are playing really hard ball with each other and that balance will be required to allow this to unfold anything close to what we hope it will. If there isn't movement toward balance it will likely be a setback for what we want. I encourage every analyst and guru to deeply incorporate this report into their perspective on things.
CARRELLO: Tlar, I could not agree with you any more, and I am starting to giggle and cry again all at the same time. Thank you Kaperoni and everyone else that has brought news and analysis on this. Next weeks should really be interesting!
TLAR: Maliki has been the major obstacle to economic reform in Iraq. With him gone things should immediately start to happen economically. Its kind of like pent up frustration. There is a spring effect. This time Iraq will follow the advice of the IMF and the international community.
It will get them there faster. Turki has spoken in the past of support for the removal of the zeros. He has held steadfast in following Shabibi's lead in buying as many dinars as quickly as possible.
The bank is ready as they have announced. If they intend to hold fast to starting at a new accounting period, April 1st is the next new accounting period. I know I'm going against the grain but I truly believe this will no longer be a float. I believe we are looking at a straight RV. I don't believe there is enough dinar in Iraq to float. The IMF has been baby sitting/protecting the CBI during this period.
Since Shabibi exile Turki has got to have retired at least another 8 trillion dinars through the auctions not counting what has been sold to the banks and is being held there. I believe the number will be 1 to 1 either April 1st or July 1st. My money is on April.
BLUEYESINLEVIS: I think it all hinges on getting Maliki wrangled...and you are exactly right, Tlar.. the pent up energy will be like a spring.
I get why you say either April 1 or July 1.. begining of a quarter.I wonder.. do they need to do it exactly on that date...or would it possibly be done shortly beforehand? Just a rhetorical question.. we do not know the answer...I am thinking about the ISX going intnl on Feb 2.. the SBA expiring Feb23... No matter what... no matter how... do think we are getting closer every day.
ZEE: I do not know or will speculate the timing of the RV but I do not think it makes any dfference whether it is at the start of a new fiscal year or start of a new quarter. The accounting makes no differnce. The banks and/or CBI can just make any accounting entries at any time. It is not a problem for them. All acctg systmes are easily adjusted.
TLAR: Zee, it's just cleaner. Each quarter is a block in and of itself. 4 quarters make a year. To start at the beginning of a quarter alows the reader or accountant to look at the numbers more objectively.
Depending on whether they raise the value to one dollar all at once from the existing .00086, it would be hard for anyone to understand the quarterly results. Imagine if you will if 86 cents all the sudden was worth $10.00 and you were trying to have a start and a finish, the interpretation of that quarter would be hard to do.
It would be hard for the interpreter of the results to understand the ending numbers as they relate to the beginning numbers. Now have a quarterly start at $10.00 and lets say you added $5 dollars during the quarter, the finish would be easy to interpret as a 100% increase of assets.
Most accounting systems are done on a comparative basis. You are comparing month to month, quarter to quarter and year to year. If you have one period ending in lets say a number under the old system and the next quarter ending in the new system, it is relatively easy to convert the two end results for direct comparison. It's just easier.
Thats why Shabibi insisted on starting on a new accounting period. He wanted first to start on Sept 1st, the last quarter of last year and then his next try was on January 1st the first quarter of this year.
EU-Iraq partnership" - Speech by FM Creighton on behalf of HRVP Catherine Ashton Summary: 16 January 2013, Strasbourg - Speech by FM Lucinda Creighton on behalf of Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, on the EU-Iraq partnership at the European Parliament
Mr President, Honourable Members,
Let me first congratulate the Rapporteur, Mr Mauro and the European Parliament for this excellent and comprehensive report on the EU-Iraq Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which highlights the main issues and challenges in the EU's relations with Iraq. While focusing on the Agreement, the report also looks into the wider context and the best ways to promote EU interests and European values in Iraq.
The EU has a long-standing commitment to support Iraq in its reconstruction and transition to democracy, with the objective of helping to build a stable, prosperous and democratic Iraq, re-integrated in regional and global structures.
The EU has been a major donor to Iraq, providing support in many areas, such as basic services, assistance to refugees and displaced persons, as well as the strengthening of the political system, the rule of law and the protection of human rights (for example,through a CSDP rule of law EUJUSTLEX mission). EU overall support toIraqsince 2003 has amounted to over 1 billion euro, and this without counting the bilateral contributions of Member States.
With the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, we have opened a new chapter of our bilateral relationship. This is the first such agreement to frame the relations between the EU and Iraq- providing a clear legal basis and a comprehensive institutional structure.
The HRVP was very pleased to sign in May last year, with Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari, this historic agreement that is good for Iraq, good for the EU, and good for our long term relationship. We are now looking forward to working with Iraq on its implementation.
That is what the Agreement is about: the start of a new partnership, sealing our common wish to work together on a whole range of issues where we both have much to gain. But also providing a platform to talk about difficult issues, including the promotion of security, the cooperation in countering terrorism and arms proliferation and the promotion of human rights and fundamental freedoms.
The Agreement also provides for cooperation in support of Iraq's accession to the International CriminalCourt.
We are committed to boosting trade and investment between the EU and Iraq. Economics meets politics is a formula dear to the HRVP: increased trade and investment will be crucial to back the work on the political front to support Iraq's transformation into a stable and prosperous democratic nation.
The Agreement will support Iraq's reform and development efforts and facilitate its integration into the wider international economy. It should also be a stepping stone to Iraq's WTO accession,supporting its adaptation to WTO rules and practice,
The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Iraq is a non-preferential agreement based on Most Favoured Nation principles. It offers very substantial market access to the EU and some preferential elements in public procurement, services and investments.
The Agreement also provides ample opportunities for enhanced cooperation on sectoral policies across the board, from energy and environment to education and innovation. Let me stress the example of energy, where the EU can help Iraq to harness its enormous energy potential, while Iraq can contribute to the diversification of the EU's energy supply and to its energy security as it is a potential source country for the Southern Corridor.
There was a commitment with Minister Hoshyar Zebari during the signature event in May for the rapid implementation of the main parts of the Agreement that are provisionally applicable pending ratification. The EEAS is discussing with Iraqi counterparts the way forward so that progress is made as soon as possible.
In this respect, I would also like to emphasise the important role of the European Parliament. The Parliamentary Cooperation Committee should be an important forum for the European and Iraqi Parliaments, providing excellent opportunities to exchange on democratic practice and provide further support toIraq's transition.
This partnership is not without challenges.Iraqis a young democracy, and the road ahead will not always be smooth. Iraq has made considerable progress in its transition towards democracy, but continues to face serious political, security, and socio-economic challenges. The level of violence in Iraq is still unacceptably high and recently tensions between the major political forces (Shiia, Sunni and Kurdish) are on the rise.
This carries a risk of re-igniting sectarian tensions inIraq, andthreatens the fragile balance that the 'national partnership government' is based on. It also slows down the necessary reforms as well as socio-economic progress. The human rights situation continues to be of serious concern, with the increased use of the death penalty an unsatisfactory situation for women and vulnerable groups, including minorities.
Camp Ashraf remains an important and sensitive issue. There has been substantial progress, but there are still a number of challenges in the critical process facilitated by the UN with our full support. The EU is also committed to supporting the UN process with a contribution of €12 M to support the operations of the UN monitors and the UNHCR refugee status determination process
The HRVP and member states all follow the recent developments in Iraq with concern. It is in everybody's interest to see a stable, democratic and prosperous Iraq, where the political system is underpinned by a strengthened rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, therefore arrives at a very timely moment, since it creates a platform and increases the EU leverage to address these concerns with Iraqi counterparts.
We must see Iraq's transition also in the regional context - in particular with respect to the dramatic and violent developments unfolding across the border inSyriabut also Iran's increasing influence. This adds to the difficulty of Iraq's democratic endeavours - but makes its success even more important.
Let me conclude by stressing that this agreement is above all, a symbol of the EU's wish to be a constructive partner forIraqin its democratic endeavours. It brings together the EU and its Member States and is the main instrument to show the EU's unified determination to build a long-term partnership with a stable and democratic Iraq, not just for today or tomorrow, but for many years to come.
On behalf of the HRVP, let me again congratulate AFET and the Rapporteur Mr Mauro for this excellent report. I would also like to thank all Members for their constructive contributions to our debate today.
The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement should become the backbone of EU-Iraq relations, and we are encouraged by the strong support expressed here today for an enhanced partnership between the EU and Iraq.
The Agreement enables the EU to engage more deeply with the Iraqi administration across the board, creating a platform for a regular, comprehensive and frank dialogue on issues of mutual concern, at all levels. It gives the EU a key tool to promote and defend its interests and values. For the EU this is a unique opportunity to develop our ties with a country that has the potential to become a key actor in the changingMiddle East.
Both the EU andIraqare committed to a rapid implementation of the Agreement. We should focus on concrete actions and key priorities.
In conclusion, let me stress that the EU is committed to underpin the new partnership with continued assistance. Despite Iraq's significant resources, targeted support is still critically needed. The EU will keep focus on delivering capacity building programmes and technical assistance where these are most needed and have the greatest impact.
or Iraq remains today, more than ever, an indispensable partner for the European Union at a moment when the whole region is facing major challengesand needs to build a solid and serious partnership with its European allies.
Ref: SP13-005ENEU source: European UnionUN forum: Date: 16/1/2013