5-14-2012 Doc: We really believe this is coming down to one simple issue which is the instability in the GOI.
We have multiple quotes from Parliament, IMF, the Inspector General to Iraq and Shibibi himself which all say "until the current political situation improves Iraq will be move forward in economic progress and deleting the zeros and elevating the value of the dinar".
This pretty well sums up the situation. We do believe Maliki understands this and is scrambling to save his neck. We think a vote of no confidence will be close enough that Maliki will be forced to compromise.
His big issue is a split within his own party which will make consensus more difficult. We continue to maintain it is all coming to a head by mid June. As this is resolved we should see Shabibi release the RV very quickly