10-8-12 Doc: We have several articles confirming a couple of key points we speculated on last week. First, several releases confirmed Maliki is the major roadblock in the political landscape of Iraq.
This includes most all the reform such as Erbil, currency, etc. One news outlet reported "President Jalal Talabani seeks to resolve the crisis through the provision of paper carrying visions of all the blocks, asserting that Maliki has the key to solving the crisis agreed to implement what.
" This is very consistent with Allawi's assertion that Maliki has been the roadblock for some time. We continue to assert that the main reason for Maliki's interference is pressure from Iran and the US all-be-it for different reasons.
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Other articles continue to report that the issues around Ebril are by far the granddaddy of all the issues. One member of Parliament was quoted as "80% of all the infighting results from failure to implement agreement of Erbil."
This again lines up very nicely with Allawi's synopses as quoted from the interview in London. We also have seen the CBI back down from currency reform ie issue of new currency by year's end. We need to remember that the CBI can not change the currency with [without?] GOI approval.
As we stated earlier here again we believe Maliki to be the thorn. We don't think the CBI is backing down from currency reform but can not proceed with the straight RV option due to non cooperation from the GOI. What is beginning to be quite clear is Maliki is blocking all reform.
We also believe Shabibi developed plan B which most likely is the "float" being reported not only inside Iraq but other outlets in other countries. Shabibi does not need the GOI's blessing to manage exchange rate.
Shabibi has also stated he has currency in reserve which can be used until the new currency is issued. We also saw Maliki's attempt to thwart this plan several months ago when he accused Shabibi and the CBI of corruption