Enorrste On Where We Are: Post is a few days old - Long Read
enorrste: I have actually been quite impressed that the Parliament is standing up both for the Constitution and for the democratic process
enorrste: They are not threatened by Maliki at all, which is amazing It implies clearly that they have the numbers needed to remove him, and then some. I was also amazed that they had the ***** to say they'd move the meeting to another province if necessary, Clearly a statement that they weren't threatened by Maliki's removal of the Krails in front of the Parliament building.
enorrste: In short, they are saying that democracy will prevail. But even more importantly, to me, is the fact that several Mps have come out directly and stated unequivocally that Maliki Will Be Removed They went so far as to say that they will question him (25 questions, I read) and then remove him, all in the Same Sentence! This tells me that they are confident that they have the votes, and the courage, to proceed.
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enorrste: I also read that they will question him on the opening day of parliament, After which they will remove him! Therefore, assuming that the poop doesn't hit the fan the ball is now in Maliki's court, and he has few options left
enorrste: I also read that a "resolution" is in the works, but time is running short Therefore, if he is going to resign, which is a good possibility now, he will do so ......If he doesn't, he will be removed on Saturday. As I've stated before, the Constitution is clear that he has no right of appeal if they vote him out
enorrste: Also, we no longer need to be concerned about Talibani (having health problems in Germany), since they have done an end run around him completely and have gone directly to the parliamentary session in their planning now, which is totally constitutional Therefore, I believe that we will see a resolution, one way or another, by early next week.
enorrste: This is consistent, Imo, with Shabibi's overall plan to get this thing off the ground coincidental with the implementation of the Tariff Law. I personally think he may try to do this a day or even a few days prior to the 30th of June, so that the currency is Done at $1 prior to implementation
enorrste: This would smooth out any potential problems with the "folks" on the ground, and pull the rug out from under economists who have bantered for incessant delays Well, that's my first cent
enorrste: Let's chat while I decide what I just wrote that was totally bogus! Lol
enorrste: I feel that there may be another shoe to fall (in my head) but I need a moment to wait for it to show itself As you all may know I tend to get these thoughts "on the fly". I just wait for them to show up, as it were.
enorrste: Road_doc, I read that they were going to ask questions of Maliki at the first session, contrary to In other words, things have changed, and now the parliament is ready to Act
enorrste: There is a great deal of confidence among the Kurds, Allawi's people, and Sadr right now It's almost a "bluster" mentality, as they predict the outcome. Vodka tonic with a squeeze of lime So, let's look at the shoe, or foot, that might fall, Ok?
enorrste: Obviously, Maliki isn't going to just "resign" unless he has cut a deal The question is whether he has cut a deal or not (I think I cut my finger......) And what kind of deal could he cut? That is really the question now, right?
enorrste: It seems to me that he has burnt his bridges with Barzani, Allawi, and Sadr. All three have called him a dictator So he isn't going to win over any souls with "negotiations" at this point, Imo. Therefore, we move to the next point.
enorrste: He Claims that he has all the answers that the Mps are going to want when he goes before the Parliament But we know that this cannot be the case, since he hasn't implemented even 1 of the 9 points he agreed to Two Years Ago at Erbil, right?
enorrste: So what in the world could he offer in his own defense? I suggest that he won't offer much, if anything, in his own defense This means that he may well "hunker down" which is not good, Imo.
enorrste: He clearly has intentions that were indicated when he removed the Krails from in front of the Parliament building But how far might he take this? I cannot believe that he would go to violence against parliament, personally.
enorrste: Not only would the entire country go up in an uproar, but the world would back Allawi and company immediately if he did so.
enorrste: Therefore, I rule out a "physical" reaction on his part, even though he is clearly tempted to pull a stunt like that. So, we are left to speculate what else he might do. I suspect that he will show up. After all, that is his constitutional responsibility
enorrste: Furthermore, he has stated that he will come with his "entourage" behind him to help him respond appropriately However, it seems to me that the poop will hit the fan regardless of his cadre of lieutenants at his side, and that, as they say, "the die is cast" against him
enorrste: We must therefore expect the no confidence vote to occur on Saturday, or a day or so later, and that it will succeed His response will be nothing if not Interesting
enorrste: My current opinion is that he will attempt to pull a "constitutional rabbit out of the hat". (You heard this here first, folks, and can quote that wherever you wish - Lol) I believe that he will make the claim that Parliament is not following the constitution (while in fact they are) and that he will appeal to the Supreme Court for a ruling
enorrste: Unfortunately, his appeal will fall on deaf ears, since the Constitution clearly states that he is Removed At The Vote if it is successful
enorrste: So even if he appeals, he will do so from outside his office, If He Leaves And this is where it gets sticky. What if he refuses to leave office? And that is my second cent. Comments?
enorrste: Fortunately now time is on Our side; we won't have to wait long for that to occur, or not.
enorrste: Dp, only the Kurds have a militia, I believe and it doesn't compare to the army and personal security forces that Maliki has
enorrste: If I were a betting man right now I'd say that he will refuse to leave office, claiming some right to appeal. He will do so under the "banner" of being constitutional, when in fact he will be proven wrong Then we must hope that the voice of the people, through Parliament, clears the air constitutionally because, if he gets a hearing in front of the Court, all bets could be off. Good question, Van
enorrste: On the other hand, if Parliament acts immediately to replace him after the vote, which they have the right to do then there will be a New Prime Minister named immediately, and the country will move forward, or not This is the real conundrum. What happens if they have 2 Pms? I have no answer at least not yet The problem is that the crystal on my "seeing eye" glass is scratched!