_ENORRSTE, A OLD POSTER,AND WHAT HE SAYS RE THE PROBLEMS IN IRAQ !!! Today at 12:53 am
You might want to take the time to listen to the last Kaperoni, Enorrste, and Russell call. We dealt in depth with the problems in Iraq related to the GOI. None of us was very positive, quite frankly.
Maliki is getting squeezed by Allawi, who has walked out of Parliament, meaning nothing will get passed. It appears that they won't do anything until Jan 3 at the earliest.
In addition the Supreme Court has ordered the arrest of one of Maliki's opponents (also from Allawi's group, I believe). And finally the deputy PM has called Maliki a dictator on CNN a couple of days ago.
So, it is our opinion that the next couple of weeks are very important, either to move the ball forward or have some sort of meltdown of the GOI.
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_I believe that the refusal of the UN to finally release Iraq from Ch 7 is related to the government turmoil. They can still intervene as long as Ch 7 is in play. I do not believe that the US will stand by if things devolve toward a civil war, however.
Our troops would almost certainly step back into Iraq post haste if the situation became too grim.
The problem, of course, is Maliki himself. Trying to figure out what motivates him is a waste of time. Clearly he doesn't care about the people, or the infrastructure. Getting the RV off the ground would solve so many problems. I just don't get it.
The only thing I can come up with is that he still is clinging to the idea that he won't do the RV until he gets Iraq out from under Ch 7. This has been a stalemate for over a year, IMO. But now Allawi and others are ramping up the pressure for him to do something, and quickly. Whether he will respond is anyone's guess.
Gurus, of course, are still predicting the RV anytime from last night (hah!) to Jan 3, with some saying just before Christmas (as if Christmas has any input on Iraq - Sheesh!).
I have heard (not confirmed) that Shabibi was supposed to pull the trigger before Jan 3. I hope so! He is on record that the new currency will come out in 2012, but just when in 2012 is anyone's guess.
Saleh is quoted as saying just 2 days ago that the process of "removing the 3 zeros" will occur in 2013! Go figure.
I can't believe that one, since most of the large notes have already been removed. What are they going to do for another whole year, use barter?
So I think the year was an error and it should have been 2012, which is what other articles have been stating for some time now for the introduction of the new currency.
It seems that the RV will come in gradually, starting at 1 to 1 with the dollar, then moving up from there, although I have no idea how long it will take to get to $3.50.
They announced the issuance of a "new" 50 dinar note that will be introduced in the very near future. It will be worth 50,000 dinars at the current rate ($43) and will help to tide over the problems of removing the final 25000 dinar notes.
The new note will be different than the current 50 dinar note, which is essentially worthless anyway. Then, as the remaining 25000 notes are removed other smaller denoms of the new currency will be issued, including coins.
This could happen at any time, but most likely beginning in 2012 as stated in articles. Then a "float" would be allowed to let the new currency find equilibrium, most likely above $3.50, but the timing is up in the air (at least for me).