risk1 wrote on March 25th, 2014, 1:25 pm: IN MY OPINION
Verdict is in....Iraq, your not ready...
Post by RichieC » March 25th, 2014, I think you are seeing this as a "half-full" glass. The article IMO indicates that Iraq has shown improvement, but there are things that need to be done. This statement is the important part though and what I find we should be positive about:
“The exchange rate—supported by ample international reserves of the central bank—provides a key nominal anchor to the economy and has served Iraq well. We encouraged the Central Bank of Iraq to renew its efforts to liberalize gradually the foreign exchange market, further reducing the spread between the auction and parallel market rates.
The way I read it is they are recommending Iraq gradually change the rate.
bizman73 wrote on March 25th, 2014, ALL IN MY OPINION ONLY
UNFORTUNATELY I AGREE WITH "RISK"..............THERE SEEMS TO BE A LOT MORE TO DO BEFORE THEY CAN THINK ABOUT RAISING THE VALUE OF THEIR CURRENCY.. ON TOP OF THE IMF...STATING THE PROGRAM RATE IS SERVING IRAQ WELL.
I DON'T SEE ANY URGENCY TO CHANGE ANYTHING UP IN THE PROCESS AT THIS TIME. I BELIEVE THE CBI WHEN THEY STATED LAST YEAR WE WOULD LIFT THE ZEROS IN JUNE 2014.
I THINK THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE WE COULD SEE .08 TO .10 START POSSIBLY IN JUNE.
THE OTHER "MAJOR CONCERN" I PERSONALLY HAVE IS THE SOON TO BE NEW GUY AT THE CBI (I FORGET HIS NAME). IF HE IS LOYAL TO MALIKI TO A FAULT AND WOULD JUMP OFF A CLIFF IF MALIKI TOLD HIM TO..........
.THEN GET READY FOR THE THEFT AND FRAUD AT THE CBI TO START AGAIN. IF MALIKI TELLS HIM TO START A SYSTEM TO STEAL FROM THE CBI...THEN HE WILL DO IT.......
AND WE PRETTY MUCH KNOW MALIKI IS GOING TO GET ELECTED AGAIN...SO I SEE THINGS GETTING WORSE IN A HURRY AND TO BE QUITE HONEST.........I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE YEAR FOR ANY CHANGE IN VALUE WITH THE DINAR..........
NOTICE: I CAN REMEMBER IN DECEMBER LAST YEAR AND JANUARY THIS YEAR ALL THE TALK ON THE SITE AND CONF. CALLS ABOUT HOW THE ELECTIONS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MR OF THE IRAQI DINAR.........AND HERE WE ARE AGAIN........
AND YOU HEARD DELTA LAST NIGHT STATE THERE IS A "CHANCE" WE COULD SEE A CHANGE IN VALUE BEFORE THE ELECTIONS...........I PERSONALLY DON'T SEE ANYTHING CHANGING.....
ANOTHER EXAMPLE IS THE AUCTIONS.....I BELIEVED AS WITH FRANK AND OTHERS THAT WE WOULD SEE THEM STOPPING THE AUCTIONS........BUT TODAYS AUCTION WAS OVER $200 WITH 21 BANKS...........
I JUST THINK WE ARE NOT AS CLOSE AS WE THINK WE ARE.............."ALL JUST IN MY OPINION" AND "JUST THINKING OUT LOUD"
Post by Shade » March 25th, 2014, 3:57 pm Hey Biz. Wish I had the ammo to disagree with you but after reading what the IMF Art 4 consultation results had to say ... you may be right.
Pos tby Frank26 » March 25th, 2014, Profoundly ........... NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Post by whatever » March 25th, 2014, I would sure like to know Frank's opinion of your opinion, because in my opinion you did make a couple of valid points here.
Post by Frank26 » March 25th, 2014,IMO........ No.
Every CC that replaces the last one is the MOST POWERFUL !!! Do NOT miss tonight's CC ........ Least You fall far behind. KTFA, Frank
Post by RichieC » March 25th, 2014, bizman, Sorry, I should've said "Half-empty" glass in my previous post. (Performing surgery is somewhat distracting when I try to post sometimes.)
You could be right, but I felt the tone of the article was a positive one. In one sentence you say "I THINK THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE WE COULD SEE .08 TO .10 START POSSIBLY IN JUNE."
In another you say "I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE YEAR FOR ANY CHANGE IN VALUE WITH THE DINAR." I'm a little confused...
BTW, I don't see your point as negative in any way. I think we all need to realize that telegraphing this monetary reform into the near future or not tomorrow timeframe is not negative.
Saying "this will never happen" would be more of a negative statement. Thank you for the thoughtful discussion.
Post by Memphis » March 25th, 2014 Perhaps a quick review inSC Thread might help folks some today. Re-read a post titled "The IMF withholds market sensitive information" and consider that central bankers might not be our best resource for truth. Not meaning to beat up on or minimize opinions, I love opinions as it forces us to re-think our position.
Frank, I am attempting to chase down a few things and will have Nova (red dwarf) call you within an hour to update. I have many thoughts at present but refuse to do anything "half-baked" guys as these are important matters to us all.
note: I could use some help today...
Yesterday our Senate pulled a parliamentary maneuver known as cloture to force the vote on Ukraine aid but the press releases are almost non-existent today and even more frustrating to me is that some are contradictory. If anything comes out on the current status I would appreciate it being posted. I'll check back tonight. Blessings, Memphis
Post by goldenboy » March 25th, 2014, Bizman I agree!
LET ME ADD IN MY OPINION ONLY:
I HAVE BROUGHT MANY THINGS HERE IN THE PAST AND THEY WERE REMOVED BY A MODERATOR OR ADMIN WHO ISN'T EVEN ON THE FORUM ANYMORE AND SOME OF THE THINGS I BROUGHT AND SAID ENDED UP BEING THE TRUTH AFTER ALL.
I SAY THAT TO SAY THIS, WE ALL WANT THE SAME THING, THE RV! SOME OF US MAY LOOK THRU ROSE COLORED GLASSES, BUT I AM PAST THAT AND NOW LOOK AT THE TRUE REALITIES OF THE SITUATION.
I SAW AN ARTICLE HERE THE OTHER DAY WhERE MALIKI IS TRYING TO INSTALL ONE OF HIS GOONIES IN THE CBI AGAIN. I ALSO SAW ANOTHER ARTICLE WHERE THE IMF TOLD MALIKI OR GOI TO BUT OUT AND NOT INTERFERE IN THE CBI OR TAKE THE CHANCE TO BE BLACKLISTED LIKE SADDAM WAS.
THE STORY GOES IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. I BELIEVE IF YOU GIVE THE THIEFS AN INCH IN IRAQ, THEY WILL TRY TO TAKE A MILE!
ANOTHER POST FROM EARLIER ALONG WITH FRANK'S INVITATION TO TONIGHTS CC STATED ABOUT THE SDR'S INSTEAD OF THE GCR. I DON'T KNOW WHAT FRANK HEARD, BUT FROM WHAT I SAW TODAY AND HEARD ON FOX NEWS TODAY, THEY ARE TRYING TO REMOVE THE IMF LANGUAGE IN THE UKRAINE BILL.
IF THAT HAPPENS, AND IF IT HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH RV, WE MAY BE LOOKING WAY DOWN THE ROAD FOR RV, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE IMF REPORT CARD ON IRAQ THAT SAID THEY WILL LOOK AT REFORMS LATER THIS YEAR.
I ALSO READ ABOUT THE SDR'S THAT WERE SET UP IN 2010(PROBABLY THE SAME TIME THE DEMS AND OBAMA ASKED FOR THE US TO GIVE UP CONTROL OF THE MAJORITY VOTES IN THE IMF THRU LEGISLATION THAT HAS BEEN STALLED BY REPUBLICANS SINCE THEN)
THOSE SDR'S ARE SUPPOSE TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN IN 2015 AND IF WE HAVE NOT EVEN PASSED THE LEGISLATION YET TO INACT THOSE REFORMS, WE ARE STILL STALLED.
I ALWAYS TRY TO LOOK ON THE BRIGHTSIDE, BUT SATAN IS SO STRONG IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND RIGHTLY SO. WHERE IT ALL STARTED, SO SHALL IT END, IMO.
SATAN IS WORKING HARD TO KEEP CORRUPTION, LYING, STEALING AND MISMANAGEMENT A MUCK IN IRAQ, SYRIA, IRAN, ETC. MY POINT IS THAT WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING IN IRAQ UNTIL 2015 OR UNTIL THE PRESENT ADMINISTRATION IN BOTH GOVTS IS REPLACED OR REMOVED!
stochastics wrote on March 25th, 2014, Looks like Harry Reid may have already dropped it.
Reid Said to Consider Dropping IMF Provision in Ukraine Aid Bill
By Kathleen Hunter March 25, 2014 Kiev Rally
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is considering dropping language boosting the International Monetary Fund from a measure providing aid to Ukraine, according to two Senate Democratic aides.
The move would speed consideration of the measure, which has been slowed by a partisan dispute over the IMF provision, said the aides, who asked for anonymity and weren’t authorized to speak publicly about leadership tactics. Besides providing aid to the Ukraine, the measure would impose sanctions on Russia.
Earlier today, the Senate’s top Republican, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, warned that Democrats’ insistence on the IMF language would prevent the measure from reaching President Barack Obama’s desk, even with bipartisan support.
VIDEO: Boehner: IMF Funding in Ukraine Bill Not Necessary
“This bill cannot pass the House or become law in its current form -- it must be amended,” McConnell said. “In order for it to become law, the controversial IMF provision must be removed.”
The IMF provision has slowed Senate consideration of the legislation. The bill, which Reid said he hopes could be completed as soon as today, would provide about $1 billion in loan guarantees and authorize $150 million in direct assistance to Ukraine.
“One way or another, we need to get it done as quickly as possible,” Reid said of the bill.
STORY: The New Great Game: Why Ukraine Matters to So Many Other Nations
After the Senate voted 78-17 yesterday to advance the bill, Republicans said they would try to strike language boosting the U.S. share, or quota, for the IMF and implement a 2010 international agreement giving rising economies more voice.
“If the IMF reform is in there, you’re not going to have that strong show of unity from the Congress,” said Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican. “Hopefully, we can strip that out so that we have as singular a voice coming from Congress as possible.”
Senators could begin considering amendments as soon as today. In addition to removing the IMF provision, Republicans will seek to boost U.S. natural gas exports to countries that are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
STORY: Four Uncomfortable Truths About Ukraine
Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, told reporters yesterday that the IMF changes Democrats are seeking “would decrease America’s influence at the IMF and perversely would increase Russia’s influence in the IMF.”
“These provisions have no business in a Ukraine aid package,” Cruz said, adding that taking out the IMF language would be the “easiest way” to quickly pass the legislation.
Cruz said he wouldn’t try to block a final vote on the underlying bill as long as Republicans are given a vote on their amendment to remove the IMF provision.
STORY: How Russia Is Pushing Ukraine Into the West's Arms
Delay “sends a very weak message” to Moscow, said Reid of Nevada, who yesterday blamed Republicans for slowing action, noting that Russia moved to annex Crimea while Congress was on a week-long break that ended yesterday.
“It’s impossible to know whether events would have unfolded differently if the United States had responded to this Russian aggression with a strong, unified voice, which we did not do,” Reid said.
A Ukraine aid bill passed by the House on March 6, H.R. 4152, didn’t include the IMF provision sought by Obama.
STORY: Good News: The Government Will No Longer Make You Put Your House on Stilts
House lawmakers plan to vote this week on another bill that would increase U.S. sanctions on Russia, including additional asset freezes and visa bans on senior officials and corporations.
“The House has acted once already, we’re going to act again this week to help the Ukrainians and to put pressure on President Putin,” House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio told reporters today.
Senate Democrats, who control 55 seats in the 100-member chamber, have the votes to preserve the IMF language, setting up a showdown with the Republican-led House. The Obama administration yesterday endorsed the Senate measure’s handling of IMF funding.
“The United States has an essential responsibility to lead the international effort to support Ukraine’s reforms at this time of geopolitical challenges, and we need to fulfill our international commitments,” Treasury Department spokeswoman Holly Shulman said in an e-mailed statement. “We will continue to work with Congress to get this done as quickly as possible.”
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged Congress to complete work on legislation that would boost the U.S. commitment to the fund, saying in a Wall Street Journal opinion article that such a move would help “promote global economic stability and prosperity into the future.”
The Senate Democrats’ bill, S. 2124, would require Obama to impose sanctions against Ukrainians and Russians deemed responsible for corruption and violence. Russian officials, as well as their close associates or family members, also could be subject to sanctions, which could include blocking access to assets held in the U.S. and prohibiting travel to the U.S.
The legislation would require the U.S. government to assist the Ukrainian government in the recovery of assets secured through acts of corruption by former president Viktor Yanukovych, his family and other government officials.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the measure on March 12 by a bipartisan vote of 14-3 with Republicans John Barrasso of Wyoming, Rand Paul of Kentucky and James Risch of Idaho voting against it in part to protest the IMF language.
House Republicans are insisting that a one-year delay in Internal Revenue Service rules governing political activity by some nonprofit groups be paired with the changes to IMF financing that Democrats want.
Reid has vowed to block Republicans from extracting a delay in the IRS rule in exchange for the IMF money.
Like the Senate plan, the measure the House is planning to consider this week would codify sanctions already announced by Obama. It would encourage imposing more penalties on Russians with “significant influence over the formation and implementation of Russian foreign policy” involving Ukraine, according to the bill’s text.
The bill, H.R. 4278, includes additional economic assistance for Ukraine and would signal U.S. plans to increase natural gas exports. Republicans have said such a move eventually would reduce Russia’s leverage over other European nations that depend on its gas exports.
Post by Memphis » March 25th, 2014, Thanks for this article. I have to get going but just a quick thought here. We should ask an important question before simply conceding our position on a point. Remember the analogy about "keeping the fight in the bar" so as to not allow the discussion to be re-framed?
So I am asking, on what level does any of this grand political theater make ANY sense if it is all just an argument over a $1B aid package? That is pocket change to these guys.
The entire purpose of supermajority in the Senate (in this context) is to cut the House out of the loop. For the Senate to invoke such a "nuclear option" in such a small bill?
No, I maintain that we must not allow the debate to be so easily reframed here, we have every reason to expect that the IMF 2010 Code of Reforms is not just an issue here but rather THE issue. Else it makes no sense.
I am reading all that I can get my hands on and must go sleep for a mid. Perhaps some others here will have this all sorted out when I wake up? :gracias: Blessings, Memphis
Post by drdinar » March 25th, 2014, Memphis, I don't see how the senate can bypass the house. Any bill, whether passed by majority or supermajority, still needs to be passed by the house and with the dems not willing to budge on the IRS issue there seems to be no chance of the imf reforms passing in the house...am I wrong somewhere?
Post by Bluebeach » March 25th, 2014,] Memphis - Christine's not happy either
Statement by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on IMF Quota and Governance Reforms
Press Release No. 14/127 March 25, 2014
Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today after reports that the U.S. Congress had not adopted a measure necessary for the U.S. to ratify the 2010 Quota and Governance Reforms:
“I am utterly disappointed that the necessary legislative steps have not been taken by the U.S. Congress to allow these important reforms to be implemented without further delay. These reforms would both strengthen the IMF’s capacity to respond to our members’ needs and help to make its governance more representative of our dynamic membership.
“I will personally continue to work together with my management colleagues and staff to support completion of the reforms by the membership and hope that the U.S. authorities will give it the high priority that it deserves.”
Without ratification by the U.S., the 2010 Quota and Governance Reforms cannot become effective.