hawger03 : I certainly understand the frustration showing here. The news articles are confusing and seem to be chasing their tails. One day it's the '15 budget, the next it's the '14 budget, next it's the old old oil and gas law, next it's Kurds oil & gas law.
IMO, these are all just smoke screens and the attempt to make the Iraqi people think that the government is working hard for them when in reality they are sitting back and waiting for the phone to ring.
I believe that all things necessary for the HCL, Budget, and all necessary laws are done and ready to go. The one thing that most on this forum lose sight of is that Iraq is not in control of this MR. As eluded to earlier, Iraq is sitting at a log jam and the only thing that can bust it up and get things moving again is the new rate for the IQD.
The IQD will never revalue until the PTB give them the thumbs up sign. Now that all is complete, they wait for that sign. In the mean time, they have to appease the people of Iraq so they spew articles that make them look like they are working hard at completing the deal.
Unfortunately, we must play the same waiting game. All of the above is completely my opinion and should not be taken as fact. Blessings to all our family on this chilly day for most of the nation.
another mailman :As far as Iraq goes, they are going at light speed, IMO!
Frank26: We believe with truth that they are curving Time and Space as they take the IQDs MR to ......... Warp Speed!
MARK MY WORDS ......... As some study today .....One day many will NOT even realize that it happened!!!
another mailman : I think the main sticking point for the Kurds according to the articles is the employees salaries being paid out. The really good article yesterday, "Kurdistan Government approves bills to regulate the management of oil wealth and revenue" tells me that things are further along than they would like us to know.
Aggiedad77: Good points A.M. I have long held the opinion that the Kurds were much further advanced in their structure for handling oil and gas from the extraction to the sales of it as well.....
They appear...IMO....to be proving that beyond a shadow of a doubt today more than ever....if the new government in Baghdad has wised up to this....they should recognize that what the Kurds have, in their contract agreements with oil companies and in technological knowledge, as well as their ability to construct worthy pipeline infrastructures that aren't being blown up every other day by terrorists or extremists.....
This should all be things that Baghdad would be salivating over.....Baghdad needs to leave their tempers and jealousy at home and honestly be seeking a resolution that will bring benefits to all of Iraq.....IMO.
Aggiedad77: Just an idle observation on my part here with these articles that WS is bringing us this morning about the oil and gas meetings between Erbil and Baghdad today.....we are seeing terms like "comprehensive and fair...."just and constitutional treatment" and these words are being seen from both sides.....
in the past when these entities have met we generally get one story from one side and a completely different story from the other side......NOW.....they seem to be more aligned than ever before.....let this be the beginning of a race to bring the Oil and Gas issues to the finish line once and for all.
Family when you put all these articles together, something seems to just JUMP off the page....a FIRST I believe
For the first time in many years, maybe since 2003 we see evidence of work from both directions.....Baghdad giving up money to the Kurds....to the tune of $500,000 million dollars....and the Kurds offering 150,000 barrels per day of oil.
It doesn't sound like much....but I've been giving this whole set of meetings today some thought and believe that perhaps we are seeing what could be the first glimmer of hope for Iraq's future. Iraq needs a viable HCL and to get that there must first be agreements between the Kurds and Baghdad.....maybe they have been working on this for a while.....who cares.....at long last though we publicly see some evidence of what needs to be.
This is GREAT news I think.....evidence of steps forward by both sides and not some one-sided bickering that we've witnessed in the past....this could be HUGE for our future.....HUGE in that perhaps we aren't all that far away from total agreement by both parties....
Does it make better sense now why Frank has said the TEAMS are paying attention to the HCL right now and not much else. We aren't "there" yet but I would say we are definitely much closer than we have been. Aloha, Randy
walkongstick: Breakthrough in Baghdad-Erbil budget dispute, says finance minister Zebari
By Harvey Morris 2 hours ago
Iraqi Finance Minister said an oil deal was reached today in Erbil where Iraqi Oil Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi met KRG Prime Minister Nechervan Barzani and Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani in a closed-door meeting.
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The Kurdish Regional Government and Baghdad have reached a breakthrough deal to help resolve an almost year-long dispute over budget payments and oil sales, Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Kurdish finance minister, told Rudaw on Thursday.
Zebari, speaking by phone from Abu Dhabi, said the deal involved an upfront payment of $500 million by Baghdad to pay the salaries of Kurdish civil servants as part of the central government’s constitutional obligation.
In return, Kurdistan would hand over to the federal government 150,000 barrels of Kurdish oil a day exported through Kurdistan’s pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
“This covers the month of October. In November, there will be another payment of $1 billion and the KRG will again hand over 150,000 barrels of oil a day to the federal government.”
He said the deal was reached today in Erbil where Iraqi Oil Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi met KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani and Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani in a closed-door meeting.
Zebari credited his “good” relationship with Abdul-Mahdi with having facilitated the agreement. In negotiations that involved Iraq’s new prime minister, Haidar Al Abadi, it was made clear that the dispute had to be settled otherwise there would be a total breakdown in the relationship and the KRG would withdraw its co-operation with Baghdad at all levels including ministers, diplomats and other civil servants.
Zebari, the former foreign minister who took up the finance portfolio in Baghdad in September, said his ministry had sorted out the figures on what Iraq was capable and not capable of spending.
“Iraq is going through a difficult financial crisis,” he said. “I want to decide next year’s budget and I couldn’t do that unless I had something in hand.”
He said: “It’s a reasonable deal and removes a major obstacle. Both sides needed this deal but this is only the beginning.”
He stressed Iraq has no control over oil in northern Iraq or in Kirkuk because pipelines had been damaged and the only way for it to be exported was through the Kurdish pipeline.
Zebari and other Kurdish ministers had only finally agreed to join the Baghdad government after Abadi pledged he would immediately make a payment to the KRG, which was not forthcoming.
Kurdish officials had also been heartened by Abdul-Mahdi’s appointment because of his past close ties with the Kurds. The former vice president replaced Hussein al-Sharhistani, who had fiercely opposed Kurdistan’s independent oil ambitions.
The government urgently needed to secure income in the absence of federal budget transfers, as it has paid out of pocket for the region’s vast number of civil servants, whose salaries consume roughly 75 percent of the KRG’s budget.
Aggiedad77: Well, well, well.....I didn't know this article was coming down the pike as I was writing the previous post....but this just continues to be a HUGE media item for the Iraqi's......at long last the Kurds and Baghdad government could be at an agreement point....as was indicated earlier...and this article from Finance Minister Zebari indicates a continued good faith effort by both parties, first Baghdad upping the money to $1 billion dollars in their next payment to the Kurdistan government for payment to state employees....meanwhile the Kurds stay committed to delivering 150,000 barrels of oil per day to Baghdad.....a large chunk of what they are pushing through their pipeline to Ceyhan, Turkey at this time.
This is a continuation of what we read earlier.....it is not a DONE deal....not just yet.....premature to say TA DA I think....but definitely closer. It sounds like there is still some details to be ironed out, since Kurd President Bargani is now expected to show up in Baghdad in the next few days to work on these details....awesome work guys.
Thanks again WS for bringing this news. Aloha Randy
vail27 :Not sure I can post this, I don't have a link but I saw on the Bloomberg ticker last night that the "Kurds have achieved financial freedom from Baghdad because of their increased oil exports"
Would that be in country or counting Turkey and how does that work internationally....
CShessman: Welcome Vail27,
Here is your article; I believe what it is saying is that the Kurds are now making more money than they have to pay out to Baghdad, thus achieving a level of financial independance. While I know it mentioned often about the Kurds seeking to be autonomous and independent from Baghdad, I think that would be a bad move for the whole of Iraq. JMO since I don't know the true heart of the people or either of the govts. It's something that remains to be seen.
Kurds Gain Economic Freedom From Baghdad as Oil Exports Rise
By Firat Kayakiran Nov 13, 2014 8:16 AM ET
Photographer: Sebastian Meyer/Bloomberg Markets
A rig drills into Kurdistan's rich Taq Taq field, where production is expected to... Read More
Iraqi Kurdistan is gaining financial independence from Baghdad as it exports enough oil to pay its own way.
The Kurdistan Regional Government, or KRG, is shipping directly to Turkey in defiance of the central government, which started withholding its share of state revenue in January in retaliation. Despite that, growing export earnings mean the Kurds last week promised regular payments to producers including Genel Energy Plc (GENL) and Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP), providing a boost to the local oil industry.
“We now have demonstrable evidence that exports from the KRG through Ceyhan is creating a sales channel, which is robust and working well for all parties,” Genel’s Chief Financial Officer Julian Metherell said over the phone today, referring to the Turkish port where Kurdish oil is loaded onto tankers.
“We've now had almost 30 cargoes sold and that money is being repatriated to the KRG and is also being used to pay the contractors,” he said.
The Kurds’ efforts to export crude independently have provoked legal action by the central government and fanned speculation that the region will pursue greater autonomy. The KRG and Baghdad are seeking to resolve their dispute after forming a battlefield partnership to repel Islamic State, the militant group that has seized swathes of OPEC’s second-biggest producer since June.
Exports are set to rise from 300,000 barrels a day to 500,000 barrels in the first quarter, according to the KRG. At that rate, they would account for about 17 percent of Iraq’s oil exports -- the same proportion of the country’s revenue the central government has been withholding, making the region financially independent of Baghdad, said Julian Lee, an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word who has worked in the industry for 25 years.
The KRG could keep the money in lieu of its share of state revenue, Lee said.
“I don’t think Baghdad would be happy with this type of arrangement, as it would effectively be one step closer to Kurdish independence and the breakup of Iraq,” he said.
Production capacity from Genel’s Taq Taq and Tawke fields is set to rise to about 400,000 barrels a day in the first half from output of 234,000 barrels as of September, according to the company. Norway’s DNO ASA (DNO) owns a 55 percent stake in Tawke.
“We have one foot on the accelerator, one foot on the brake,” DNO’s Executive Chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani said in an interview in Oslo today. “If the payments don’t come for some period of time, we’ll hit the brake. If the payments come more regularly, we’ll slam the accelerator.”
Gulf Keystone seeks to increase output by 74 percent to 40,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, and plans to boost production to about 65,000 barrels to 70,000 barrels within two years once it secures regular export payments, Chief Executive Officer John Gerstenlauer said over the phone today.
“The operation is going in an excellent fashion, the business is in an excellent shape,” he said. The KRG “committed themselves for steady payment going forward. That’s a big step for them. It’s very encouraging.”
The KRG owes Gulf Keystone about $250 million for oil shipments and investments, he said. The government last week said it would start regular payments to producers, with an initial $75 million payment this month.
The KRG has exported 34.5 million barrels of oil at a value of $2.87 billion since January, it said in a statement last week. It received $2.1 billion in cash and $775 million worth of oil products, such as kerosene and diesel. The sum accounts for “only a fraction” of KRG’s annual share from Iraq’s 2014 budget, it said.
Michael Howard, an adviser to the KRG’s minister for natural resources, didn’t reply to e-mails and a call to his mobile phone.
“With multiple cargoes shipped and paid for, this route to market for Kurdish oil, which bypasses Iraqi infrastructure, is being legitimized,” Daniel Ekstein, an analyst at UBS AG, said in a report this week. “Record production levels confirm contractors are making good operational progress.”
Genel today announced a deal with Iraq’s Kurdistan to develop Miran and Bina Bawi gas fields and agreed to buy OMV AV’s stake in Bina Bawi for $150 million.
The KRG last year signed a deal to deliver Turkey 4 billion cubic meters of gas annually from 2017, rising to 10 billion by 2020, Genel said in August. Today’s deal gives the KRG an “ability to fulfill export commitments to Turkey under the Gas Sales Agreement,” Genel said.
Turkey, which imports about 60 percent of its 46 billion cubic meters of annual gas needs from Russia, wants alternative sources to reduce risks in its energy supply security. The country imports almost all its gas.
(An earlier version of this story corrected DNO’s holding in the Tawke field.)
jdtolle » November 13th, 2014, Creative and resourceful
Don’t get mad; get creative. Don’t get frustrated; get resourceful.
There is a workable way past whatever is threatening to make you angry. There is opportunity in those situations that pull you toward frustration.
Life is a creative experience, and the universe is an abundant place. Combine those realities together and what you get is value.
Instead of feeling sorry for yourself, feel the energy of your own capability. When the breaks don’t go your way, remind yourself that there’s much you can do to set things straight.
Whatever challenges you, can also motivate you. Whatever pushes against you, can make you stronger and more determined.
Be the creative, resourceful, positive and effective person you know you can be. And know the confidence of seeing yourself move forward no matter what.
— Ralph Marston Wishing All a safe, warm and blessed day