WHY THE KIRKUK OIL AGREEMENT IS SO IMPORTANT
Today's agreement with the Kurds over the Kirkuk oil field is really important. This was a disputed area/oil rich area. Without being able to determine who owned the area, the Kurds or Baghdad, there couldn't be an agreement on that oil, therefor no HCL, and without an HCL, probably no RV. Territory disputes had to be resolved in order to clarify Article 140.
Sometimes, it's hard to remember key factors. This was one of them, the resolution of which certainly moves forward the HCL.
I still can't project a timeline for the RV. But, I'm looking for Abadi to get the rest of his Ministers appointed mid-September - mid-October given his own statements and the approximate time it takes the GOI to actually vote on things, and they may not approve everyone at once.
After that, Abadi will need to get his proxy positions voted in, including the Gov of the CBI.
The 2017 Budget will need to be voted on, and it's very encouraging to see that budget being reviewed by the IMF. The CBI needs to get rid of the MCP. The GOI needs to vote on the Investment Law, and hopefully even the HCL. Mosul is set to be liberated October - December.
The U.S. always wanted the Amnesty Law and the HCL law passed. And they wanted permanent military bases. They got the law and the bases.
The IMF wants the Budgets to be cut, the oil estimated price of oil reduced, back payments paid, foreign currency purchases transparent, the MCP stopped and the Investment Law passed and implemented.
UN wants corruption curbed. They are starting on that problem. They got the over site.
WTO wants Iraq to diversify their economy away from oil, borders secure, taxes and tariffs, and the property rights law passed. They got those things.
Kurds want their land, oil and Barzani wants independence. All of these things are being discussed.
Looking at these various things that the interested parties need, the progress that has been made to date is seen. We can also see what remains:
1) Mosul (October - December according to Abadi wanting to get it done by the end of the year)
2) Fully seated Cabinet of Ministers (Abadi will submit his choices in two weeks)
3) Proxy positions voted on (no date yet)
4) Investment Law (no date yet. Don't forget it's a requirement in the IMF's June LOI)
5) HCL (Sticking points are being agreed upon, but no date yet)
6) MCP (IMF wanted that cut out by the end of the year according to the June LOI)
7) Budget (will get done, could be voted on by October)