Iko Ward: Well guys, as of today 5/14/15, it will be three straight weeks the Dong has not polled on Forex.
Before you tell me it has, understand I am not talking secondary platforms like Ms Money or Bloomberg or whatever, I am talking about the actual Forex.Com site, the benchmark everyone else uses.
And by polling I mean the random measure they use to mark changes in the currency value.
Polling can be a change against the dollar or a measure of the change in the trading spread.
With Dinar, for example, it usually begins the market matching the CBI rate of 1164, then creates a spread of say, 30 points, bringing the value up to 1134, which would poll at -30.00, and be shown as a high of 1164 and a low of 1134. Don't sweat these numbers, it is always a variation.
So on Wednesday, 4/27, at 4 AM EDT the Dong stopped polling. For two weeks it did not move.
Then last week it started creeping down every night around 15 points. so over three weeks time it has devalued from 21575 to 21760.
This represents a change of approx 1%, hardly the trade stimulus being touted in the press. The interesting thing here is that these little changes in value go by without a formal polling.
The poll always shows 00.000, so they are doing it "off line" so to speak, usually right after the Asian Market closes. Prior to 4/27 the Dong usually traded heavily during the Asian Market with spreads as large as 575 points, so its current behavior is noteworthy.
So what does all this mean?
It means there is great deal going on behind the scenes, that one hand does not know what the other is doing, that this whole thing is a bit of a cluster f%^& and being done on the fly.
I think Vietnam and BRICS had a plan for when Iraq RV'd (4/22) and things got screwed up when it only partially revalued.
They have been in limbo the past few weeks trying to regroup.
What I like is the added pressure now to fix it. The US Government has its own problems and allies to deal with.
We, as Dinarians, can complain and take sides but the bottom line (as DC likes to say) is it will happen when everyone has their ducks lined up. Maybe they finally do and this week is it.
I think we would all like to hear other perspectives on this. I posted this as Intel with an opening for discussion. I know some people need to vent, but I'm also hoping others might chime in with their own perspective.
Dong activity over the past three weeks is hard intel asking for analysis. Maybe that's why so little has been said. Leave the emotion out of it. What do you think? Best Iko
SkiRacer: I agree, Iko, that the behavior is quite odd. The same seems to hold for gold and silver.
I think pretty much "everything" is in a holding pattern and quite the mess right now, waiting for the long-awaited change for it all to behave normally again.
Your catch is great & I appreciate your astute observations. So thanks!
Footer: I believe it is a very geopolitical event for the US, as it positions itself with TPP and the mideast concerns with negotiations with Iran.
Hopefully. those are the ducks they are trying to align, before releasing the RV.
A new vote has been pushed forward to prevent currency wars affecting trade, which will help getting TPP approval.
As Tony always says, the RV will be released when it helps everyone in the US.
Hopefully, the RV is already in progress.