(We don't think we posted this from earlier in the week.)
kaperoni: Today’s chat is a continuation in the recent series of events that hopefully will lead up to the revaluation of the New Iraqi Dinar.
kaperoni: As I stated last month, The revaluation is a step (the piece) in the process (a puzzle). A process that in part is directed by the World Bank as they continue to implement and expedite the banking and economic reforms in Iraq.
kaperoni: We learned over the last couple of chats, there are many reforms being implemented since Shabibi stated June 22nd that he was read to “delete the 3 zeros.”
kaperoni: These reforms, include updating the investment law, the securities law, opening of the ISX and tied to the NYSE, custodian banking, Iraqi Forex operations, privatization of state owned businesses, and implementation of tariffs on imports into Iraq to stimulate manufacturing and agriculture within Iraq. This may or may not be all the measures that the GOI, CBI, WB, IMF, UN etc. are lining up prior to the revaluation. We will even see a quote from Maliki himself today at the end of this chat.
kaperoni: So where are we today? I will try to address each of these issues.
kaperoni: The first is the CBI activities pertaining to the dinar…
kaperoni: We know the CBI is continuing their plan to collect the 3 zero dinar…here is proof..
kaperoni: Central Bank: Iraq's economy will grow 9% next year – 10/30/2011
kaperoni: “kassum said the Central Bank does not intend to cut interest rates six percent now where this could lead to capital flight.”
kaperoni: As we already know from previous chat, the CBI is using interest rates to encourage customer banking…to deposit dinars in an account. This statement confirms this.
kaperoni: Now we moving into how Iraq is dealing with the issues of corruption, fake notes, etc.
kaperoni: Our markets and the risk of counterfeit currency ... Mon, 31 Oct 2011
kaperoni: “arises confusion and gossip in the corridors and commercial markets around the spread of counterfeit currency that suffers from dealing within the market without knowing the real origin, what a day passes without the shocking merchants large and small alike when he discovers that some of his papers cash fake and professionally.”
kaperoni: and this quote...
kaperoni: “And when we follow the money through fake dealers in the commercial markets surprised that the source of payment of the debt owed by the staff of the traders, which caused many problems among dealers as mentioned some of the staff confirming that the source of their money is their salaries they receive are being pulled from the banks of course.”
kaperoni: And this article…
kaperoni: Karbala warns private banks of money laundering operations - 29/10/2011
kaperoni: “He added that some of these banks have a lot of problems, contributing to rampant corruption and fraud, noting that in Karbala, a good number of private banks, and dozens of offices, banking and remittances, all working without supervision from the local government, warning banks and offices of money-laundering by some parties that may have involved issues of terrorist or criminal in order to influence the national economy.”
kaperoni: So we can see they continue to work on reducing this problem.
kaperoni: The next is the CBI’s desire for the supporting “investment” piece of the puzzle.
kaperoni: New article…
kaperoni: Central Bank: the European financial crisis has cast a shadow on the national economy on: Sun 10/30/2011 7:15
kaperoni: “And Saadoun said in a statement received by the independent press (iba) The unemployment rate is increasing annually due to the number of graduates”
kaperoni: and this quote...
kaperoni: “it is impossible to absorb all the graduates in this way, adding that what is needed today for the treatment of this phenomenon is to build strategic projects large and important, such as investment gas field crutch as it provides thousands of jobs as well as encourage the private sector private credit by providing conditions that encourage investment, then open the door of the financing of projects for young people through soft loans, according to a mechanism agreed between all parties ..”
kaperoni: Clearly, these statements show the CBI is aware of the global issues as well as there issues with unemployment. They state here they want…”conditions that encourage investment” Let’s see how that is coming along….
kaperoni: Next article…
kaperoni: The head of the Liberal: the Iraqi economy will improve after the departure of U.s. troops from Iraq - 26/10/2011
kaperoni: Here are a few quotes…
kaperoni: "shabibi" that the Iraqi economy will improve after the departure of U.s. troops from Iraq.”
kaperoni: "that there are four important things were discussed with the Governor of the Central Bank”
kaperoni: So you can see Shabibi is involved. On October 25th, The House of Representatives with the various Iraqi political blocs and the host central bank governor, "shabibi" This is a great article because it give us some more insight direct from Shabibi on the economic conditions
kaperoni: Here are those four items discussed with quotes….
kaperoni: 1. “first after the occupation and how to restore economic activity through the profits to be provided by the Iraqi economy . Saying was "discussed the possibility of the distribution share of the oil to the Iraqi citizen. Noting "that the governor welcomed this proposal and prepared to cooperate to achieve this important project.”
kaperoni: 2. Adding, "discussed the private banks and retail banking, remittances, and how to adjust and with great regret we received information that there are points of a terrorist group and Saddam's Baath The control of these banks.”
kaperoni: 3. “He said al-araji said the most important matter which has been discussed is to delete the zeros of the Iraqi currency and the pros in this project.”
kaperoni: 4. "the world view to the Iraqi dinar because of the loss of sovereignty would be a diminution of the dinar and the evacuation of troops will raise the value of Iraqi dinar.”
kaperoni: And this last quotes sums up it all up…..
kaperoni: “He explained “were discussing these things because we are at the doors of the liberation of Iraq and return of Iraqi sovereignty,”
kaperoni: Do u all see that? "we are at the doors of the liberation"
kaperoni: It is pretty clear, that the Us troops leaving (or the impression they are leaving) is part of the plan to give confidence to Iraq and the Dinar.
kaperoni: All of this was confirmed in a subsequent article also titled…
kaperoni: House of Representatives will discuss with the Governor of the Central Bank granted a share of the oil resources of the people - 27 October, 2011
kaperoni: Another article…
kaperoni: Quest for fast processors to avoid the effects of the global financial crisis on the Iraqi economy - 30/10/2011 - 7:44
kaperoni: This article addresses not only Iraq’s reforms, but it acknowledge the global issues….
kaperoni: “He added that« the Iraqi Central Bank is working to provide the processors quickly to avoid financial crises that have emerged in the Eu during the recent period and the deterioration of the value of the euro against the dollar”
kaperoni: “He said the Iraqi Central Bank to address the economic problems require the expansion of activities of tax in the country and make sweeping reforms in the administrative dealings of the General Authority for taxes of the Ministry of Finance.”
kaperoni: This quote is good as it confirms the article the other day about implementing the tariffs in December. If so, it is of my opinion there RV must be prior.kaperoni: The next part is regarding the World Bank Activities with Iraq (putting the other pieces of the puzzle to support the RV)….
kaperoni: Minister of Industry discusses with the representative of the World Bank to develop the industrial sector in the country Date: Monday, 10/31/2011
kaperoni: “minister of Industry and Minerals Ahmed Karbouli with the World Bank representative to Iraq, Helen Maria Baraknl ways to develop the industrial sector in the country.”
kaperoni: This tells us the WB officials are in Iraq right now, helping them progress with these reforms.
kaperoni: Another quote...
kaperoni: “He added that "the policy and directed the Iraqi government requires openness to international companies specialized and sober through the conclusion of partnership agreements with them to achieve the desired goals in the improvement and development of products and enter into new industries to achieve the financial resources and the operation of labor," stressing "setting a specific timetable for achieving those achievements and support from the World Bank. "
kaperoni: And going back to the CBI section, they acknowledge the need to implement these measures to not only help with the industrial side, but help with the employment and labor issues. They mention a “timetable” for these…hmmm wonder when?
kaperoni: Another article and quote…
kaperoni: Deputy: underdevelopment of the banking sector because the evolution of Iraq in the area of investment - Friday 28-10-2011 12: 20 pm
kaperoni: “khalil said: there are many impediments to investment in the country, including lack of appropriate legislation for investment and not to provide "logistics investment map", in addition to vital facilities, calling: providing all requirements of the investment process for the purpose of promoting the country's economy.”
kaperoni: We see another reference here… “lack of appropriate legislation for investment” This piece seems to be what we have heard about many times. And the reason why the WB continues to help Iraq with these reforms.
kaperoni: Now we move on to the next puzzle piece…
kaperoni: This article…
kaperoni: Stock Exchange announces the inclusion of Warka Bank write off of trading monday, 31 October 2011
kaperoni: “announced that the Iraqi Stock Exchange, Sunday, for de-listed company Warka Bank in the Iraqi market for securities, after a break from trading for more than six months to raise capital without taking appropriate measures for the resumption of activity.”
kaperoni: and this quote...
kaperoni: “more than one hundred branches in various parts of Iraq”
kaperoni: This is great news…bringing Warka back is just another step in the right direction. Investment, personal banking, etc.. all good news to have these banks functioning prior to the RV
kaperoni: So what picture am I painting here?
kaperoni: All of this is part of the picture. What I am saying here is the RV is and will be a key, but is only a part or a puzzle piece of the Iraqi economy. What the CBI, the WB, the IMF and others are doing is trying to line up the economic activity prior to the RV.
kaperoni: That the banking reforms, the capitalization at the banks, the ISX, and the privatization of state own companies, tariffs all play a part in driving the Iraqi economy away from total dependence on Oil. All of these structural reforms are good news for us. They are moving in the right direction.
kaperoni: I cannot say enough, they are trying to get away from total dependence on Oil.
kaperoni: This last article sums it up IMO…
kaperoni: Maliki calls for change economic laws to accommodate Iraq directed market economy - Tuesday 01 v 2 2011
kaperoni: And the quote…
kaperoni: Al-maliki said that "iraq was an holistic and need to change all legislation and economic laws because they are not adapted to the changes that have occurred in Iraq and go to a market economy,"
kaperoni: We have seen several references now to laws that need to be passed. So IMO, until those laws are, there is no reason to RV the currency as it will not complete the puzzle.
kaperoni: I will finish with this from a recent article covering the demands from Sadr…
kaperoni: Wave Sadrist movement to withdraw from the "national Alliance" - 01/11/2011 13:04
kaperoni: “He continued by saying "most of the parliamentary forces paid no heed to the call made by the Liberals to block the extraordinary session in the House. And I think that a quorum will not be completed in next Thursday's meeting, in accordance with current data."
kaperoni: We can take from this quote…
kaperoni: That Sadr is not happy that his demands have not been met. He feels they are not taking him seriously. As well…we learn that there does not appear to be enough parliament members around for a quorum Thursday. So we should not expect that there would be a special parliamentary session during the vacation.
kaperoni: Because of this, and the needs for these economic laws still waiting, I cannot see an RV before they return from break.
kaperoni: Though many wont agree, for various reasons (within Iraq or global), it does not appear to me the RV window is before mid month. If Iraq lines up these reforms and prepares the laws that need passing, and are on schedule…that is a lot of “ifs” ….My window now looks at Nov 20th – the end of Dec. Let’s hope I am wrong and it comes sooner.