Kaperoni's "where we are at" quick chat. DinarAlert chat room 5/6/2013 @ 12pm CST
[kaperoni] Here is a quick update on where we are…
[kaperoni] My last update I listed a bunch of things that needed to get done. We can follow up now and see if we accomplished them…
[kaperoni] Elections went off and were a success. Results were official this past weekend. Maliki though lost some support, he did not do as bad as some originally thought. Here is a quote from Kirk Sowell’s Inside Iraqi Politics…
[kaperoni] "The provincial elections returned a firm plurality for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as expected, but showed a clear drop in support, imperiling his “majority government” agenda. Sunni areas likewise returned a significant but qualified victory for Speaker Osama al-Nujayfi’s protest movement-supported bloc."
Read More Link On Right
[kaperoni] "The April 20 provincial elections were essentially a “two elections, one country” affair in which the Shia contest was framed around Maliki’s effort to make it a referendum on his “majority government” agenda – disposing of the “partnership government” that contains every bloc.
If this year’s results are repeated in next year’s parliamentary elections, Maliki’s leverage is going to be limited."
[kaperoni] We talked about announcements or articles creating “awareness” for the Iraq’s. – Yes that has happened..in the last 2 weeks members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee have put out several dinar articles. So awareness is back on the streets.
[kaperoni] All the laws are still on the table. Time is running out but passing them is possible if they have quorums. The recent agreement between Maliki and Barazani was a surprise and gives us some better ground to stand on. Personally, I think we are in a good window (all be short) to get these laws passed and move forward with the currency.
The problem is Parliament goes on spring vacation on May 15th. So we have 6 days to pass all these laws in a basket sort of speak. Tough task for sure, but I am hopeful.
[kaperoni] This past weekend, two conferences occurred that we told you about last time. One was a WTO conference in Baghdad and the other an investment conference in London. Again, these are good and serve some purpose. If nothing else it is pushing on Iraq. And a push is good for us.
[kaperoni] There still is a Banking symposium scheduled for May 15th in Baghdad. Again, another good event that is helpful and will push them forward.
[kaperoni] DFI is still scheduled to be released May 23rd. No extension as of yet was granted.
[kaperoni] Some other events that took place…
[kaperoni] Iraqi Stock Exchange training and development included a number of workers in the Securities Commission and the Iraqi market for securities in the training program XXIII, which was held in Washington last week. Again, more good news, pushing them forward.
[kaperoni] The UN is sponsoring an event Wed to teach Iraq about Anti-corruption.
[kaperoni] Scheduled for Sept is a conference and exhibition held at Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre.
The Conference will be held over three days bringing senior Iraqi experts, owners and industry services contracts to identify best practices and solutions in the enterprise, infrastructure, and support the production of oil fields in Iraq.
[kaperoni] So where are we at?
[kaperoni] Parliament recess starts May 15th and returns June 15th or about. Ramadan starts July 8th- August 7th this year. Though they work, nothing ever has gotten done. And one could expect that the dinar will not come out during this time period.
[kaperoni] If Parliament this next week, can accomplish the enormous task of passing the laws, then we have a chance the CBI will make a move with the dinar yet this month. It make sense only if the laws are in place.
[kaperoni] If the laws are still sitting when recess occurs May 15th, we will have to wait for them to return mid June. This is another window of about 2 weeks before Ramadan begins July 8th.
[kaperoni] The good news is the continued pressure from all these events and the articles in the media that are an attempt to push the economy forward.
This last weekends WTO conference was an example of that..”The reasons for delay in Iraq's accession to the World Trade Organization” says it all. Remember in late Feb and early March there also was a training class for Iraqi officials. So sooner is better in this regard.
[kaperoni] IMO the window is better now than later. For the reason of this new agreement, the laws and the elections. The Iraqi people are short tempered and want to see results. If they drag this out, violence will start up, and the hot summer is never good in Iraq.