Parliamentary Finance: this year will not attend any currency exchange
Jubouri said the "unstable political situation and the worsening situation prompted the central bank to postpone the project until it is political stability and the stability of the monetary policy in the country." LINK
TUSCO1: Intentional smoke? These comments sure do counterdict all the momentum and good news we have been reading
Read More Link On Right
Haitham Jubouri: 2013 is not adequate to replace the currency and delete Ocefarha
Iraqi Published in: 12:10, February 23, 2013 by jamal
BAGHDAD (Iba) .. Ruled out a member of the Finance Committee MP Haitham al-Jubouri, put forward a project to replace the Iraqi currency and delete Ocefarha in the current year, which is scheduled implementation of the project by the central bank. LINK
KAPERONI: Looking at this from an Iraqi perspective, he is probably correct. Remember, we expect Iraq t It you believe Haitham al-Jubouri, and I don't see a reason not to (he has always been a proponent giving us details along the way), then you must agree with the theory that "raising the value" and "deleting the zeros" are two different issues.
As well, we know that that the CBI must change the "exchange regime" per the IMF SBA. And we know, investment is waiting for Iraq to remove the "constraints" holding back the banking sector.
Therefore, the only conclusion I see is for the CBI to go into Article 8 of the IMF, then float the dinar at or 1166 on up (remember they say they have smaller bills already as part of the current set for this project).
This achieves the goals of removing the constraints on banking, fulfills the SBA, yet holds Jubouri's statement as accurate. Then, once the dinar has value at or around the dollar, then can "officially" declare the removal of zeros and release a brand new currency (ie. Kurdish language, etc).
Then again, he may simply be blowing smoke and the dinar is going to substancially increase in the next few weeks.
KAPERONI: I will add, this is an article from Jubouri from Oct, 2012 which supports raising the value..he even states...
"A member of a coalition of state law, MP Haitham al-Jubouri that the Iraqi currency recent witnessed great volatility represented in the low price of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar and this dire economic damaging of all citizens calling on the central bank to work on raising the value of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Jubouri said the central bank should take its role in this issue as the issue price of the dinar based on supply and demand and therefore must move toward maintaining the value of the Iraqi dinar and the equivalence in U.S. dollars."
KAPERONI: Two things from here... LINK
1. He is asking the CBI to raise the value of the dinar.
2. "based on supply and demand" implies float.
SADIE; IMO al-Jubouri has said nothing about the value or rate of the IQD. The only thing he has said, is that they are not changing the (look) of the currency, by printing new dinars with no zeros on it...nor are they willing to lift the zeros out of the accounting part of the IQD....So when it does change in value they will be using 25,000 notes just like we will.....But for them it will only increase their buying power.
KAPERONI: Sadie, they won't be using 25,000 notes. Most of Iraq if not all of Iraq is on the dollar (dollarized). And what dinar is out is 1000, 500, 250, 50 dinars. Very few 3 zero notes are on the street.
SADIE: Thanks Kap, I do understand that. I just didn't state it very well I suppose. Just that the article was talking about not lifting the zero's... But said nothing about not changing the rate. (float or otherwise)
PGLD: The last paragraph says it all. They have hopes and plans, but it's not happening any time soon, or at least this year, IMO. What they should do or need to do is very different from what they will do, as we have painfully seen firsthand over the years, and historically spanning many centuries.
The culture of Iraq breeds a continuous cycle of septicity. I'm not trying to be a downer, just trying to keep it real. Thanks Kap and team for all your tireless efforts to keep us informed.
KAPERONI: PGLD, you need to listen to the last night's CC. Not doing anything is NOT an option. The IMF requires the CBI to move to a "exchange regime" as a condition of the SBA. And the article we talked about last night has the CBI (Turki) meeting with the CoM (Council of Ministries) and others as stated... "...the need to lift the obstacles that stand in the investors in the banking sector and system"
TERRY: Yes Kap, last night cc was just like all the rest. GREAT! The articles that details the meetings from the decision makers leaves no doubt in my mind what is about to happen. It is obvious they are in the process of doing all the things they told us they needed to do to get this thing done. Great stuff. Anyone who is not paying attention to your cc are just out of the information loop and have to be on the rollercoaster. Nobody analyzes the news like your team. Nobody.
Wgw242: Isn't Haitham al-Jubouri, Malicki's nephew? Isn't he the one that accused Dr. Shabibi of corruption? Why would we trust anything coming from his mouth?
WEDREAM: not to argue wgw but i believe you are referring to jaffarri...sp.
PUNISHER: PGLD, even the news today is stating they need to start a float of the dinar...MAY seems to be our month or sooner.
WGW242: Wedream. Unless this is a fabrication, read below;
KAPERONI POST, 29 OCTOBER
10-29-2012 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: "Central Bank announces replacement of damaged currency early next month" the question is why replace these? It's either out of pure necessity (and they are not raising the value for a while) or they plan to start raising the value via a float and expect them to be heavily used over the next several months during that period. I don't think the article gives us any clues to confirm either.
An article from April states the GOI/Maliki has a "weak dinar" policy... meaning they don't want to improve its value. If true, it could be a while before we see any raise in value. On the other side, we had Jubouri (Maliki's nephew) come out and ask the CBI to raise the value of the dinar. So who knows.
Posted by FORO DINAR GURUS at 2:35 PM
KAPERONI: wgw, very good point...if he is Maliki's nephew, one could say he has the same views or is conveying the same view as Maliki. In general, one would look at this with only two options... nothing is going to happen for a while as he states (weak dinar policy) for a while or he is lying and something is going to happen and he could be covering for it.
Looking back at all the Jubouri articles the last two years, he has been relatively informative on "stages" or asking to raise the value. Despite any relationship to Maliki, I don't see him changing his tune providing information.
Therefore, the only explination that makes sense to me is to look at it as several events...Article 8 (IMF), float (exchange regime), lifting of zeros or delete 3 zeros (officially), and new currency. Doing so, gives some resemblance of truth to his statement.
In other words, we will see Article 8, and a float, but don't expect high exchange rate or new currency yet. If you took this article at face value (nothing is going to happen), then you would have to say Iraq has really gotten themselves into a real economic bind (quagmire).
The Paris Club dept benchmarks would not be met, IMF Stand-by-Agreement would not be met, and the 2nd phase of the Strategic Framework Agreement appears to be not met and we would see Iraq's money from DFI being unprotected as May 22nd and open to all past creditors.
And there would be no need to send high level CoM officials for WTO training Feb 28-March 1st or discuss implementation of tariffs. Oh, and the new ISX custodial bank from Kuwait NBK. All of which is currently pushing forward. I choose to look at all this, and say we are close!
Attorney Haytham al-Jubouri: this year will not attend any currency exchange or delete Ocefarha
Said a member of the Finance Committee MP Haitham al-Jubouri said "this year will not see replacing Iraqi currency not delete three Ocefarha".
Jubouri said the "unstable political situation and the worsening situation prompted the central bank to postpone the project until it is political stability and the stability of the monetary policy in the country."
He added that "currency exchange and delete Ocefarha will features the best and biggest reduce the size of inflation and revive the dinar due to a lack of demand for the dollar, which comes great positive aspects of the country's economy."
He pointed out that the "replacement currency will revive the country's economy but needs to be political and economic atmosphere appropriate to carry out the project without facing any obstacles lead to a deterioration of the Iraqi currency."
TLAR: To go to a float at this time when the currency is 1166 makes no sense and is counter productive to what the bank has been doing over the last 6 months. The bank, through the auctions, has been retiring dinar as fast as possible. The auctions have been a conduit to buy USD with dinars.
At the same time the CBI has eased restrictions allowing banks across Iraq to sell USD for dinar which they then bring back to the auction to buy more USD with. This process is ongoing and the result is, it is dollarizing Iraq as we all know. The CBI is retiring dinar.
They are not expanding the numbers of dinar out there in circulation. To start a free float which means going international at 1166 makes no sense. If the currency starts as a float at 1166 and is an internattional currency, Iraq would then be able theoretically pay its balance of payments or anything else with dinar. This would flood the international markets if they did this.
This is diabolically opposed to what the CBI has been trying to do over the last six months in removing dinar. In addition it would not solve any of the problems internally such as replacing worn out currency nor does it address value.
Without value, what is the incentive of the population to sell their USD and start using dinar? How do they de-dollarize? To the average Iraqi, it would be as nothing has changed.
Also who or what would drive the price of the dinar up? If Iraq re-floods the international community with dinars at 1166, that are putting up a major price rsistance to any increase in the dinars value. It might take years to see the price increases we all hope for.
Iraq would be better served IMHO to just do what they have said they were going to do since 2009. Drop the zeros. I personally think that a float will not cut it. It will not quickly change the value as some think if it starts at 1166.
I think we would have already seen the dinar go to a float if this was the right thing and what they were really going to do.
It costs them nothing to do it.. To go to an IMF article VIII currency and start a float is not expensive nor is it a major process. To Iraq it has some advantages. It solves a few problems but adds a stigma to the dinar and IMHO it has many more disadvantages than the few obvious advantages..
It says, "we as a country evaluate our currency at 1166 and no more. Let the market drive it if it thinks it is worth more". All the while Iraq is flooding the market at 1166 using the international dinar, keeping price down.
Personally for my money (Kap, I know you don't like what I have to say on this subject), I think that this would be a major mistake on Iraq's part if they just float the currency. I personally think that's why they are waiting.
I believe the first move we see when the dinar goes international and moves to an article VIII currency, will be the removal of 3 zeros off the exchange rate. Not before. Sorry everyone.
If I'm Iraq looking to figure this out, its just the way I see it because its in Iraq's interest to do so. Having said that, its Iraq. Up until now, they have never acted in their own best interest..
KAPERONI: Tlar, your welcome to your view, just that all these questions you ask are already answered in the Kap section. Might want to read a few of those chats to get answers.
TOBYBOY: . Tlar They have said on several occasions they to reduce the dinar to 1000 dinars to 1 dollar. I still think they will make the first move to 1000 to 1 US$ gradually reduce the dinar pips throughout this year slowly 100 to 200 pips a month carrying this to 2014 before any major move to 1 to 1 .
I see this removal and new money happening in 2014 unfortunitely for us and I am sure this will be acceptable by the IMF on a slow movement
Parliamentary Finance: 2013 is appropriate to delete the zeros BAGHDAD - World
Sunday - 24 February 2013 - the fourth year - Issue 762 Sunday-24 Feb 2013 No. 762
Ruled Haitham Jubouri, a member of the Finance Committee MP, put forward a project to replace the Iraqi currency and delete Ocefarha in the current year, which is scheduled implementation of the project by the central bank.
Jubouri said the agency "Lipa" on Saturday that "the political situation is stable and worsening conditions the central bank pushed to delay the project to that is political stability and the stability of the monetary policy in the country and after every incident, stressing: that this year will not see replacement currency Iraqi not delete three Ocefarha ".
He added that "currency exchange and delete Ocefarha will features the best and biggest reduce the size of inflation and revive the dinar due to a lack of demand for the dollar, which comes great positive aspects of the country's economy."
He Jubouri that "replacement currency will revive the economy Alibd but needs political and economic atmosphere appropriate to carry out the project without facing any obstacles lead to a deterioration of the Iraqi currency." LINK
Parliamentary Finance: 2013 is not adequate to replace the currency and delete Ocefarha
BAGHDAD / My Day
Ruled out a member of the Finance Committee MP Haitham al-Jubouri, put forward a project to replace the Iraqi currency and delete Ocefarha in the current year as scheduled implementation of the project by the central bank. Jubouri said in a press statement:
The unstable political situation and worsening conditions the central bank pushed to postpone the project until the political stability and the stability of monetary policy in the country and after every incident, stressing that the current year will not see replacing the currency does not delete Ocefarha three.
Added : currency exchange and delete Ocefarha will features the best and biggest reduce the size of inflation and revive the dinar due to a lack of demand for the dollar, which comes great positive aspects of the country's economy. He Jubouri: to replace the currency will revive the country's economy but needs to be political and economic atmosphere appropriate to carry out the project without facing any obstacles lead to the deterioration of the currency. LINK
PUNISHER: Tlar, So your opinion is that we will still be waiting until 2014?
Blueyesinlevis: I don't know about anyone else... but if they start the float as Kap has opined... and 1 NID is = to 1 USD on January 1st 2014... I will be ecstatic. In 10 months.. I will be wealthy beyond my wildest dreams. I can live with that... not to mention... in the meantime.. once the NID floats to say.. .10 cents.... I can have enough to be very , very comfortable for the remainder of the year as I wait. That year would also allow me to embark on my plans, establish my trust, and get serious with my preparations for NOT squandering my windfall.
-On another note... Joubari is one of Maliki's goons, wether he is a nephew or not. Him saying this as a representative of the National Alliance is not convincing to me about the reality of what will happen on the ground over the next few weeks/months.
The National Alliance, State Law Coalition and Dawa are all on the ropes. Barzani's Initiative... with widespread support of Nujaafi Allawi, Sadr and Sistani is looming. The possibility of them forcing the 2010 Erbil Power Sharing is very real at this point in Iraqi history.
-The Demonstrations are ongoing. Many Iraqis have are homeless form all the flooding, and they dont have jobs. The unemployment rate is over 30%... most jobs are government jobs and lots of those folks get paid sporadicly.
What do many of them have to do BUT demonstrate? The demonstrations are NOT going to go away without some major changes.
-Add in everything Kap talked of... all that pressure from the EU, the IMF, the UN, the US, the deadlines, etc.
-Additionaly... the April 20th elections should sweep the NA from Power. Of the 70 SLC MP's.. only 20 are running for re-election on the SLC ticket. Joubari may be a powerful member of the finance committe today.. but he may very well find himself working as a Baghdadian Dogcatcher soon enough. aistani has told the Shiites to vote out every single incumbant who is running for office. The NA is not liable to have any real majority power very soon.
Joubari can pop off all he wants.. spouting Maliki's weak dinar policy. He can jump and fetch and do tricks for his master today.... he is about to find out his master is not all powerful much longer. I truly believe they are right around the corner from wrangling their problem ( Maliki) one way or another.
I think they will then be moving rapidly to the start of the stability needed to enact the economic development/ banking sector reforms they need. In other words... things are about to change dramaticly. JMHO
JPEG: So, after all the chit you all gave me about saying it ain't happening until early 2014, we now see 2014 creeping into more and more members' posts. I'm with Blueyes...if it happens in early 2014, I'll be ecstatic----because I'll have more dinar then than I'll have by May 2013, which I guess is the newly revised "close" prediction.
Just because I believe it'll happen later than sooner, I've been labeled the bad boy on the block. Whatever. I want at least an additional 10 mill more, and 2014 will allow me to get it without digging into my Vegas vacation stash. So, I'm still rooting for early 2014.
PUNISHER: Kap has said the free float would start this year. I don't see them starting a float in 2014. If they waited until 2014 to do anything at all they might as well just do a straight up rv.
Financial: this year will see the replacement of currency and delete her zeroes 23/02/13 17: 10: 00
Finance Committee member Rep. John this year that al-Jabouri would not replace the Iraqi currency has not deleted her zeroes three.
Al-jubouri said that the unstable political situation and the worsening status of the Central Bank to postpone the project, to be political stability and the stability of the country's monetary policyD.
The Exchange and delete her zeroes will be bigger and better features, noting it would reduce inflation and boost the dinar as a result of the lack of demand for dollars, which comes with great positives for the economy of the country.
TOBYBOY: Punisher & Blueye Yes things keep changing I do believe we looking at 2014 now but this will be good if they start the movement between now and end of year with movements starting with 1000 to 1. I believe we will start seeing a float but not for several months.
Would be happy see small movements each month and by end year reaching 1 to 1 then floating once equal 1 to1 by that time hopefully criss behind them and they start taking in the dollar off streets. It appears everything is leading to 2014 now, as this starts climbing everyone will be happy on gradual climb including maliki & parliament..
The stress factor we have now will be gone and our only concern would be when do we decide to cash in . Iraq does not like move quick so I would love see some kind of movement now as they have told us several times to decrease to 1000 dinars. It would not make any sense to stop at 1000 to 1 with companies & businesses coming to Iraq over the next 2 years.
A slow but steady growth is what they want so less confusion for everyone and a happy government & IMF. As this dinar climbs a lot of us would also start reinvesting in Iraq doubling our profits. This is just my opinion from what I see going on now.
TLAR: IMO there is a philosophical argument going on in Iraq concerning monetary change. We find articles that can support any of three different points of view. Everything from
1) just starting at a float at 1166, and letting the market determine where the currency goes,
2) or first starting at 1000 to one and then later dropping the zeros,
3) to just start the process by dropping the zeros.
All three are basically in agreement that the open volley will be followed by some kind of float, either free or managed. Depending on your belief in a specific view you can find articles to support all three positions.
Also depending on what time period these articles were written in will heavily support one's view. We know up until last August, all articles were supporting dropping the zeros. This is the Shabibi period and he stated this since 2008.
In September 2012 or there abouts, we were hit with articles that suggested they would first drop the exchange rate to 1000 to 1 and then on January 1st, They then would drop the zeros bring the dinar in line with the US dollar.
Somewhere before Shabibi was removed he had all but given up the idea of dropping the zeros as a result of governmental disagreement. He then talked of going to a float and "letting the market decide", the value of the dinar.
It is my opinion that most of the recent articles are once again discussing dropping the zeros. There would be no reason for this terminology IMO if it is their intention to start at a float.
If they float the currency and it gains in value so much so that it progresses to the point that they have introduce the new smalls, it would be assumed that they then would need to drop the zeros.
This would mean they are not in control of when the zeros were dropped andd articles like the ones above and below make no sense. The articles like the ones above say emphatically they are postponing dropping the zeros because of the political uncertanties and because of the economy.
If they start now or very soon with just a float then they truly are no longer in control of value and therefore this would be a stupid statement to make. At the point the currency gains enough value then they will have to drop the zeros. So how can they postpone something they don't control because they abandoned control to the market?
I think they make these statements because the CBI is back on track to just "remove the zeros". In a sense all points of view are correct. Just drop the zeros, just free float the currency from 1166, or first go 1000 to 1 and then drop the zeros. The following article is as all the articles above.
They will postpone the removal of the zeros. It mentions nothing of starting to free float the currency at 1166. Keep an open mind everyone. This could go either way. Nothing IMO is set in concrete.
Look, I hope what I said is not accepted as being discouraging. We won't know how nor will we know when, prior to this event happening. It could happen tonight or it could happen in 2014.
Every article you read concerning the currency is either truth or it is meant to decieve. Don't go up and down with this emotional rollercoster. Don't expect more than what your getting.
Iraq will never come out and say, March 21st of this year we are raising the value to $1.00. Know only this one thing. We won't know when or how much or the way it is introduced until it happens.
Everything up to that point will have been just entertainment. You've already bought the ticket to this "B" movie. You might as well stay to see how it ends.
Fears delete the zeros of the Iraqi currency
Saturday, 12/4/1434 H - 02/23/2013 (updated) time 18:18 (Mecca), 15:18 (GMT)
Raed al-Hashemi: The process of deletion of zeros is a necessary step for administrative reform of the currency (IRIN) Alaa Yousef - Baghdad
Agreed politicians and economists Iraqis that the process of deleting three zeros from the Iraqi currency current risk because of conditions of the country and the lack of security and stability and the spread of corruption, where Iraq is seeking to reform the system of currency management and ease of use and reducing the number of banknotes of four billion to one billion and 800 million paper, from by deleting three zeros and the issuance of a coin.
Ahmed electrodes: Iraq can not delete the zeros now (IRIN)
The decision of the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives MP Ahmed electrodes of the island that Multi deletion of zeros from the local currency is still under study within the economic issues, not pending until now because of crises many experienced by the country, as well as problems that accompany the adoption of the financial budget for the current year.
He pointed out that this process is not possible at the present time because it will lead to a problem in the Iraqi economy.
The electrodes that the Finance Committee inquired from the Iraqi Central Bank on its preparations to change the currency without getting fraud where, and expressed its readiness to this process, but the problems that have occurred in the country in addition to the crisis the central bank, which led to changes in leadership, stopped this process.
He pointed out that Iraq can not be doing the process now, and added, "We need to stabilize the general situation of the country, in order to prevent any attempt to exploit this procedure by the corrupt."
Support monetary policy
For its part, the MP said the Finance Committee Najiba Najib of the island that this project was in the time of former central bank governor Sinan al-Shabibi, has been studied by the parliament well, resulting in the latter to address the Council of Ministers to support this project, and there was a negotiation and dialogue with A number of international companies on the deletion of zeros, indicating that this process is a good step and help to support the country's monetary policy.
She added that this issue has no echoes currently in parliamentary community and senior in Iraq because of the dismissal former central bank governor and refer the matter to the Integrity Commission, explained that the project will succeed if given the government and the House of Representatives and all institutions supported because it will prevent fraud and removes fear if the procedures properly.
She explained that Iraq needs to restructure its currency, as there is no class more than 25 thousand dinars, as well as coins, which confirms that the current currency does not fit with the Iraqi state revenues, which have significant financial budgets.
Najiba confirmed that there is a lack for money on the market, and that change would have a currency with economic feasibility to take all legal precautions and necessary legislative and government, while making the timeframe up to one year to change the citizens their money, in addition to the increase in bank branches.
He says economic expert pilot Hashemi The process of removing zeros is a necessary step and task comes within the country's need to process administrative reform of the currency contributes to reduce transaction costs and trading cash in the economic process, and reduce the size of the money supply in the country and help facilitate the calculations and reduce the inflating numbers, if applied correctly and appropriate Baltoukitat.
KAPERONI: The best thing we have going for us to persuade Maliki is the recent meeting of the CoM, Turki and others. This quote from the Secretary General is very good for us...
"The Secretary-General stressed to the Council of Ministers on relations between the need to lift the obstacles that stand in investors in the banking sector and the system alkmarki,"
This discussion may be continued………….