Post From KTFA By denaridori » June 16th, 2015, 10:24 am
Frank's CC 6-15-15: Part 2 of 2
Aggiedad77 at KTFA- Thoughts on Article by Dr. Shabibi
Aggiedad77: Now as I promised I will work on this article by Dr. Shabibi....for those of you that simply read the last sentence....shame on you....you miss the full intent of the article and what Dr. Shabibi is trying to tell the world here I believe. (See Article Below)
Dr. S is quick here to point to the differences of the official price of the IQD to the USD (1190)....and the street market value (1340)....and he says even with the discrepancy the CBI reserves remain strong indicating the true strength of the Iraqi currency....important points.
He quickly points to the fact that problems exist due to the limitations attached to the CBI by the Finance Committee and Parliament which also hampers or hamstrings the CBI from defending itself because of the limitations applied by Article 50.
Dr. S is very with it in this regard and sees what has been done to the CBI as a stripping of their autonomy and forcing them to suddenly become subservient to the very government they should not have to answer to.....he points to the seriousness of what the Finance Committee has implemented as a cause for a reduced effectiveness by the CBI in their monetary policies to fight inflation....something the CBI has managed beautifully for at least 10 years.
Dr. S further points to the loss of autonomy by the CBI as a potential issue when it comes to such things as inflation and stability of the IQD....stating that the Finance Committee's actions will lead to a collapse of the real value of the IQD.....
again the Fin Comm sticking it's runny nose where it does not belong....through their actions (Article 50) the black market has suddenly flourished within Iraq and has led to funding of some terrorist activities.
(Security is important…you think you’re the only one cashing in dinars?)
Loss of independence for the CBI is leading to creditors seeing the CBI's funds as just another part of the government money....(an artificial way of looking at it)something that definitely does not need to happen.
Additionally, the CBI in being forced to follow government policies is no longer able to actively and aggressively pursue keeping inflation at great levels (less than 3%) because their hands are tied by government policy now.
What many are missing here is Dr. S pointing rather blatantly to the idea that the government wants what the CBI...their reserves....he reiterates what has been said several times this year that the CBI reserves exceeds the money on the street by fully 1.5 times.....how many times have we heard that....a strong indicator for the CBI.
The bubble and high price of the dollar that is seen today is almost 100% caused by the government's actions...not by what the CBI is doing.
Dr. Shabibi is in my opinion making a very strong pitch as to why he needs to be back at the helm of the CBI....he knows....he understands....and he has the backbone to stand up to the government and push back against their desires and demands that prove to be detrimental to the real intent and goals of the CBI and how they as an autonomous organization within Iraq can and should be doing bigger things to bolster the economic recovery of Iraq.
When he says that Iraq is not a safe place to bring investments he is referring to the need to get laws passed that sit on the table today within the Parliament that will provide that security for investors and remove much red tape and strive to eliminate corruption from the investment process that was allowed to run rampant in years past.
I see Dr. Shabibi and PM Abadi as saviors of the Iraqi economy....saviors of the Iraqi people....and kingpins in great things that can stem from Iraq that will help the whole global economic process.
This is NOT a negative article....but a well orchestrated viewpoint from Dr. Shabibi of the way things should be for the CBI and for Iraq.....I like what he has to say.
We’re trying to tel you that Dr. S wanted to talk but not a single syllable until he was confident for security and his children…and those laws with the GOI.
China is ready to enter the international stage…What do you think the IQD is doing. Even if you find us as to what is leading to a date…we offer no date, but a sincere study of the monetary lava flow that the governor of the CBI has made it very clear that he has the ability to raise the rate and tell anyone who asks that.
Remember Executive Order 13303 given by President Bush. Everyone talks about the dong going up in value, but we can’t say it. Fine! Let Dr. Shabibi say it….
I-team – we actually don’t give too much about I-team but in honor and respect of what we’re trying to do now with our new format, they too are displeased with the civil side of what is being dealt with right now.
And, I-team understands and all my teams will talk to me but I will not talk to you about my teams.
If you find any reason to blame me or find fault in that, please take inventory of your character. I ask you to protect me because this is getting serious and IF we are close, you don’t talk about a date. At here, we don’t. Unfortunately, collateral damage brings in that topic.
Dr. Shabibi wanted to talk and will talk more more…and more….and more… I told you my opinion was nothing to be seen on the monetary reform before Ramadan…Iteam has gone from 30% to 19%. This is not a timeframe…after all I went through. No…This is my opinion what I gave you BEFORE.
I want you to appreciate what Dr. Shabibi has done. He’s resting now….Iteam says , Frank the same way you have created Siamese twins between the GOI and CBI, I-team is creating it in the same manner…Monetary Reform and Security – from now on they are one.
I-team has been in a silent mode…..the only thing I can say that to me is the highest mode of intel. Yeah, but we went from 30 – to 19%. So what…it’s the lava flow, not a date. I told you I’m referencing what I said in the past and not going forward with that. No more on percentages….is there more? Yes, there’s margin because it’s a fluid situation that’s dynamic and changing all the time.
Do we have a timeframe for study now….not going to share it with you. Just be with us as we constantly share with you that which we learn. I-team has been back from Baghdad for a good 10 days. That’s it from I-team…can’t do the rest of it.
Yes…Congress is in session for some things that Obama has done that affects our troops….
The fake Ishmael….they’re asking him to step down….LOL LOL LOL….articles saying he step down because they want Dr. Shabibi to be the official governor of the CBI. They’re going to ask the governor to step down because the official governor is going to officially announce the notes next month….then Delta’s intel will put a cherry on the top of that!
….I missed you all.
DELTA: Let me repeat this announcement….. For every dollar you buy you give us only 1 dinar. For every dollar, you can buy one dinar. You make the conclusion, but basically telling a company that for every dollar, you get one dinar –
I know the CBI is charging 13 dinars and this announcement is clearly saying every dollar will cost you 1 dinar. This is not someone you told me, he told me – it’s an official announcement posted on the CBI website on June 9th.
This is one indication we know something’s going to happen…those remittance companies to pass the money back and forth like Western Union in the US -- this company ??? you can transfer $ from US to Iraq with a licensed company – I think one in Canada and one in Minnesota.
So for every dollar you get one dinar. It’s amazing and the details from the article on the 9th …we want to get it to you. The other forums can’t believe it …they have to go there and read it.
Something’s going on …why does the CBI try to sell one dollar for 1 dinar….they’re not making anything on it when it cost 13-14 dinars to make.
We got this information from Iraqia TV – articles – right now their dollar is dominated in hand and breaking records in the whole nation in Iraq. The black market exchange rate is close to 1340 but because they don’t have the lower denominations you can’t have 1340 – 1,400 dinars -- ?
Everybody in Iraqia TV for 6 times are planning – we’re not talking about ISIS anymore…we’re talkinga bout the 1400 dinars. Think about it. If you have solutions are you going to care about it? Of course not.
How come the GOI and CB I aren’t even looking at the ?shares? They used to slam Shabibi….how come you don’t see anything right now because the change is gone.
The new change is that the CBI ….changes left and right – Ramadan is coming up on the 17th and 18th – the high products during Ramadan, people do a lot of shopping and things are high. The government ……………/////
1) The nation of Iraq does not control the market policy….if that were so, they could have ….it’s not their policy.
2) Why they don’t ? They know the change is coming. They told all the citizens that they would raise the value of the Iraqi dinar.
So, after the news that was on all day long – here’s the location from Iraq to Turkey to meet with the Deutch Bank and Citibank to put the final touch on the process …for the international block and at the same time, meeting behind closed doors, they’re trying to ….with the International // with Iraq////
We all know that Iraq has to move forward and remember no one said it was speculation – THE ACTING GOVERNOR OF THE CBI HAD THE GREEN LIGHT TO LIFT THE 000’S AND THEY WOULD COME OUT WITH THE 50k AND 100K NOTE AND BY DOING THAT THEY’RE GOING TO INCREASE THE IRAQI DINAR AND THE IMF….STATED THAT THAT THE…WAS THE IMF.
This article has all indication that something has to change and it’s some time NEXT MONTH… The media basically said that. They’re going to come up with that one….and after that change takes place, they DON’T HAVE TO USE THE DOLLAR ANYMORE. Think about what’s going on right now.
Think about it…..Iraq is bankrupt right now. They are the wealthiest nation on earth but have no value. When they said they were getting 800 million dollars from the IMF a month ago, but it didn’t happen because we know why – the IMF, in order for them to give that to a country, they have to show seriousness about their condition and status…they have to show them why they …??
Remember, we told you they stated that this money was going to the CBI reserve and to get a credit rating…some didn’t believe this on the forums….Did you see what happened yesterday? I told you – that 800 million $ they’re going to get some time next month – but I’m going to bet on that one, if we don’t see changes, they’re not going to get it.
#2 – Iraq needs to pay salaries…about $7 million dollars a month…just one portion. So $800 million won’t do anything – the budget is passed, but they don’t have the LIQUIDITY – and the one thing that can solve that is to change the monetary reform and give this country value to their liquidities….and they TOLD US SO.
It’s a law now…it was in the Gazette and one part of the budget they stated clearly that what’s going to happen – they have to SELL BONDS….they had about 25 billion and 35 trillion…..it’s not going to be enough…I didn’t say that. The Financial Committee said the Iraqi dinar WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 1 DOLLAR….this is all from the CBI….??? Something has to take place.
We don’t have the date or rate but we’re telling you all these details, even Abadi, when I worked the translation to English – he said that the change will prosper and the citizens will …..the sanction on.
Ramadan is not a holiday – they work less hours, basically they cannot eat until 6:00 but the banking institutions works…everything works! The CBI came up with the printing of the new features of the 25,000 and ?? dinars…..so Ramadan is not a holiday.
The GOI and CBI can change the market policy – so during the 17th to July 17th – it’s business as usual. The parliament is coming back on the 21st. ANTYHING COULD HAPPEN…AGAIN FOR THE NATION OF IRAQ MUST BE ARTICLE 8 COMPLIANT…For this group in Turkey over the last 48 hours, they’ve got an indication that the change is coming and it’s going to be a good change!
FRANK: That was WONDERFUL! Let’s do our best to answer your questions.
Questions off forum:
Is Art. 8 done yet?
F: IMO – No
Delta: The IMF with the help of the CBI are working together to accept Article 8 – they have to follow the rules and guidance under Art. 8 – that’s why when you go to Art. 8 they don’t accept any mistakes or it’ll be a disaster…when it happens, it will be done correctly and at the right time.
TS: No – I agree that they are ready and prepared to do it in a professional manner, step-by-step and it will be something they could do very, very quickly and without doubt.
SHABIBI IS BACK IN BAGHDAD IS KINDA OF TELLING, RIGHT?
F: Yes…but when he took off on us a month and a week ago, he was travelling all over…I don’t’ want to be the champion of intel, but now that he’s gone, he was in Germany, Turkey – these bonds are extremely important. I just told you the #1 buyer of these bonds was going to be UK and Germany….and where was he?
TS: 100% correct…they play a huge role in the final act of this. If you go back to the EU situation – and this is just my personal knowledge, not intel, notice the country’s in trouble and to strengthen their own currency.
EXPLAIN THE 14: 1 USD
D: The markets right now – go to the CBI website, they have it as 1166 – then you do have a market rate at 1,335-38 – they don’t have lower denominations for change. The nation of Iraq is the only nation in the world that doesn’t give change back – everything’s rounded up in Iraq. I have a dollar….I have to buy 1,380 or 75 dinars. There’s no 50 dinars so you have to round it up to 5,000 (?) –
TS: Let’s take it to big contracts….$100 dollar range – millions and billions in contracts. Think of paying someone off – they’ve gotta pay back more in dinars, giving more back than they would have gotten at the program or current or market rate because they can’t make change. It takes it a step forward where the bigger money is at.
D: Everything right now is in dollars….technically can accept XXX The monetary reform is for their own citizens…not us. Everybody’s complaining. Even 1400 – you think they want that without change. The citizens are losing a lot of money.
TS: That’s true, but the contracts rate in USD – the auctions they’re hiding are huge numbers and those numbers do play a role in bringing extra dinars even though they’re bringing in USD – that are international…bringing back in those 000 notes.
F: Remember, Delta, you said it was 13 – 14 they used to sell the IQD – i8f the CBI is offering that and increase their foregoing currency for 1 IQD, how are they going to make money? They were making 13-14 and now they’re offering this and it’s in Arabaic, the internet doesn’t know about this but the international community knows about it.
They’ll convert their money in Zumbai money – you’ve got 000’s now…they wouldn’t dare …unless they take us back to the original question…do you think we’re art. 8 compliant. We can’t see everything! They’re in still mode and the I-team is in silent mode and I can tell you it’s the highest form of intel.
I compare it to the Invasion of Normandy….Loose lips sink ships!! Just shut up now….and Iraq is breaking records at 13- 14 and people are scratching their heads saying I can figure that out.
But what’s really explosive….no more about ISIS….no it’s DAASH…it’s not a war!! It’s a “battle”…in other words, the balogne is no longer needed. NOTHING BUT THE CBI – because we told you -- Family , I’m going away and I’ll see you on the 15th.
These bonds…wait til you find out what they did!! When the meeting happens….Zerb says….them their bonds will set you free!
How are they going to maintain something like this….like Western Union? In other words the bank will be using banks like WU to allow them to sell their currency for the USD.
D: Absolutely – >>>???
F: They’re slowly bringing these banks back…Once we know S is happy with his banks, we’ll see…right now at 1/9th of a penny – you can’t do anything…that’s why we say – the whole monetary reform has to be activated a few days – about 3 days – after the green light – we’ll see it in that level.
TS: Remember I said I know we’re not allowed to talk about time…let’s see what plays out because what Delta says we’re seeing play out it’s falling into place….at least the ACTIONS are….the actions at the CBI are working at light speed.
F: The more Shabibi talks ….he’s the horse’s mouth!! That’s when I envision we ONLY HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE CBI. We are blessed that Delta can read these articles.
I had 3 people who actually criticized Delta…he can’t speak….he doesn’t speak Caldini….Well, OH! You missed this article that you just can’t read…To read Arabic, it’s a complicated thing…almost mathematical! LOL
DO THE CITIES NEED TO BE SECURE BEFORE THEY RV?
F: It depends on how many banks S wants to be secure.
ANY LAWS STILL NEED TO BE PASSED?
F: There’s a plethora of laws – but the most important ones are the ones for the CBI and as far as I know, Amnesty has been passed….protecting the CBI and Dr. S and everything they do.
D: The leaders of politicians is trying to agree on that – we might see that from the parliament to pass some kind of laws…the ones of most importance is the INVESTMENT LAW…waiting for that to pass…I believe the change of the marker …the number without Art. 8 won’t make any sense at all.
There’s no law needed because the GOI because to go to Turkey – it shows Iraq is ready to move forward….it’s about the international bonds….they have to be financially stable (?). To issue these bonds, they have to move forward.
TS: This is not from any agency at all…just because I know something doesn’t mean I know something. This is from family that’s actually going to Turkey for a reason…I’ll tell you this…straight up – the laws that are needed have been amended enough to put this in place to move the MR forward and then use that as a tool to get it the way they wanted.
Walkingstick: Central Bank current problems as a result of the loss of independence
Sinan Mohammed Rida al-Shibibi
Iraqi money market live in the present state of instability was the collapse of the market rate of the dinar, which amounted to 1340 dinars to the US dollar while the official price of about 1190 dinars to the dollar, although the size of the reserve is still great, which is considered a key factor in the stability of the currency.
The reason is due to this difference between the two prices to enter ministries (Finance) and other parties (House of Representatives) and Amlaihm policies and terms were not unrelated to monetary policy, and not the central bank's ability to defend his advisers about the bank by law.
The problem at present is that students have to pay a conversion secretariat equivalent to a certain percentage of taxes and customs when buying the dollar and at the request of the Ministry of Finance, and this is an important factor in the rise in the dollar price.
These conditions have served the Ministry of Finance, but the principle that the purchase of foreign currency and selling it must be done fast and smooth and without any obstacles (except banking conditions and a commitment to capital) because the rapid movement of cash, and if there is a need for the central bank to take advantage of foreign currency sale for development was better to use it in Ttaiwiramlah bank credit, if given preference in the auction of the bank, who leads in the banking its credit.
So there is the intervention of the Ministry of Finance in the work of the central bank. This intervention is designed to collect the financial resources of the Ministry of nothing to do with monetary policy, although the central bank is that the collection of these resources.
In other words, the central bank is the one who collects these resources for the Ministry of Finance. As the budget included the central bank to buy Treasury bonds and remittances to $ 6 billion and reduce the percentage of legal reserve held by banks at the Central Bank in half to provide budget resources.
The seriousness of these measures GOES to reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy in the fight against inflation. Therefore, on the fiscal and monetary authorities to assess what you get compared to inflation of resources and instability, which can be a cause for the collapse in the real rate of the dinar.
Also restrict the sale by the House of Representatives means interference in the work of Parliament's central bank. Common among among economists and parliamentarians that the central bank continued to the House of Representatives, and this is a big mistake of the Central Bank is responsible to the House of Representatives and not subordinate to him, and here the Central Bank is no different from the rest of the ministries, but this responsibility (the responsibility of the central bank) explicitly mentioned in the Constitution.
Thus, the central bank has lost its independence and became a bow to the decisions of the government and parliament. The style is the right to put forward ideas as proposals in the House of Representatives and then be voted upon.
The government and parliament policies, and particularly in determining sales, led to a duplication of the exchange rate deceived enriched black market and some of them used by others in other funding terrorism may be one of them.
Loss of autonomy has several caveats most important that the central bank will be subject to the instructions of the government, which will be reflected in the Bank's policies and therefore, the central bank will not be able to adopt the goal of reducing inflation in earnest.
To make matters worse, that government spending is inherently inflationary result of the delay in the implementation of projects.
And loss of independence would lead to the creditors to look to the central bank's money as government funds, becomes a target for creditors, and this is an important issue should be discussed with creditors and lawyers Iraq.
The loss of independence means that the central bank to adopt monetary policies in line with the policy of the government, but the government's policies may not fit with the Central Bank Law. In other words, it does not focus on the fight against inflation does not give due importance to the goal of economic stability.
The imposition of a financial nature policies on the central bank should be the subject of study and coordination by government and parliamentary bodies. The central bank has weakened administratively from the government, and often tried to governments to impose its policies on the central bank, including the former prime minister tried to borrow from the central bank which was rejected because the bank law prevents him from it, and ended up the attack on the central bank and the arrest of many of the finest staff .
One manifestation of overtaking on independence is to waive it on the Central Bank reserves. Some repeating that this could be justified because the reserve exceeds the currency in circulation and in bank one and a half times. These justifications for the government to gradually dominate the central bank resources.
The economy - such as the Iraqi economy - largely open on the outside needs to be significant resources to compensate for the results of any crisis, and if they are borrowing from the central bank would respond when will this money? What is the capacity owned by the bank towards the government to recover the money that?.
The bubble and the high price of the dollar is a result of the policy of the government and the House of Representatives and it ought to be to remove obstacles for the foreign exchange market where you should not be given greater importance of fiscal policy, monetary policy is determine the exchange rate and help to manage the money and functions.
The central bank does not lend to the government but it helps the economy as a whole through price stability and credit regulation and supervision of the banking and financial sector regulation and payments and maintaining the country's reserve.
Lama speak much echoed by the government and the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives on "foreign currency auction", this auction is a monetary policy which pulls dinars from the market and bought by foreign currency and here Thread ends for the central bank, we have a cash discharge process direct and simple.
And if there is no import of "auction" For parliamentarians to inquire about the reasons for this in the customs or the Ministry of Commerce import process does not fall within the monetary process.
That the central bank must be matched each dollar demand and this is one of the fundamentals of price stability as the demand that has not saturated by the bank will go and creates another market prices and the other, which is contrary to the central bank law and creates a state of economic instability.
I chose the Finance Committee put an upper limit on the sale of foreign currency (75 million dollars a day) thereby contributing to instability in and create multiple exchange rates for real because the demand was higher.
In any case, this request does not ask about the central bank, but ask for all sectors of the economy, why the Finance Committee in the Parliament and practiced legislation and supervision question to sectors of the economy which are supervised by and to the private sector, especially not go and it's supposed to meet all corners of the economy.
We do not doubt that there are irregularities, which requires follow-up with the relevant commercial banks, but we stress that the central bank is in front of the discharge process, but not cash, either by the imports is outside the scope of work of the Central Bank.
On the other hand the money to go abroad because the state did not provide suitable opportunities to invest at home. Also, a section of which is a kind of external savings (within the concept of the national accounts of a country) will return to Iraq in appropriate circumstances that must be provided by the State.
As for the extra money must be sure of their sources and legitimacy of the banks and the circles in which anti-money laundering that should be strengthened, the majority of sources may be derived from money laundering or simply that the subject is big operations out of capital.
We must not forget that Iraq falls within the group of countries which are in transition from totalitarian regimes to open democratic systems provide the free economy.
This group of countries undergoing many changes in the economy opens up (as states formerly the Soviet Union), but a lot of these countries, its economy was characterized by the transfer of capital abroad.
In the case of Iraq also encourages this transition because of the conditions of violence and instability experienced by the country. This situation may explain the large amounts that are being converted to a foreign ....go abroad in order to spare, then we are in front of the case of capital flight and not smuggled.
The situation in Iraq at the present time encourage capital flight, and if it does not allow for capital that moves the dollar exchange rate in the market will rise significantly hampering economic decision-making.
Iraq has not yet become a safe place brings investment, we need large national efforts to ensure stability and attract investment.
* Former Central Bank Governor LINK