_Jan 1 2012 and no RV, what now?
To be completely honest I never expected to see a rate before the 1st. I have been watching the CBI for many months now and I have never seen them do an update on a Friday or Saturday period. They are fanatical about their holy days and Friday and Saturday are their holy days.
The whole world is celebrating the New Year today so to expect a select few powerful individuals to be working today just so the RV can be made live is a little too much to expect as well, at least IMO.
Tomorrow is the day a lot of the world will be celebrating New Year's day since it fell on a Sunday and although most retail will be open tomorrow (Monday) I would think that perhaps we may see something tomorrow but I wouldn't hold my breath unless you look very good in blue because I don't think we will see anything before Tuesday.
With all that said here is my little thought on this whole situation. One way to handle all the ups and downs in this is to manage your expectations.
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If you expected to see the RV before today then your expectations were not met and you could be disappointed today. If you manage your expectations and do not expect something then if it does not happen, you are not disappointed.
If you look logically at this and realize that Iraq is going to do this on their time and not anybody else's time and if you look at the history of what they have done in the past you will see that to expect them to change the CBI on a Friday or Saturday you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
They do not have the work ethic that most other countries have, they have not learned that when something very important needs to be done and that sometimes the world does not wait for their holidays or their Holy Days and that they may have to do some things that they are not used to doing like perhaps not take a vacation when they feel like it or even worse they may have to work on one of their Holy Days.
So since they are still living in a society that is decades behind the rest of the world as far as work ethic, they are not going to do the things that maybe the US or Europe would do like work on a holiday to complete something that the rest of the world is waiting on.
Iraq is a country that has been controlled by a dictator for many decades and the people have never developed the ability to think for themselves because they have been told what to think and when to think it for so long.
Even most of the new leaders are still learning to think for them selves and make decisions without being told to. When it comes to those really hard decisions, well they have to think it over for a very long time because this whole decision making process is still very new to them.
We have read that certain world agencies have told Iraq that they need to RV by a certain date or that they need to do certain things that are a little difficult to do and although I don't doubt this claim, I have not seen anything official that those claims are valid. In other words, I have read nothing in any official statement from the IMF or UN that states that Iraq has to revalue their currency period, let alone that they need to do it by a certain date.
So to accept that this has been said simply because someone said they have a contact who says Iraq was told this is setting yourself up for disappointment. Unless you read it in an official statement it doesn't exist and is nothing more than hearsay.
If you then expect to see results based on one of these claims but you have not actually seen the official statement then you are just setting yourself up for your expectations to NOT be met and thus disappointment.
By studying the whole situation, and looking at the logic of what should happen one can see that without a currency that is trade-able on the world market Iraq can only go so far in claiming all the value their country holds in oil and natural gas and all their other natural resources.
If they want to be president of OPEC in 2012 they have to be selling their oil, be free of the UN sanctions, and be a sovereign country. If they want to claim all the wealth their natural resources hold they have to have a currency that is of more value than one tenth of a cent on the world market.
If they want to be taken seriously as a valid country that has a wealth of natural resources they have to begin making those hard decisions that they are afraid to make. Until they grow up and accept responsibility for their actions, past, present and future they are always going to be seen as little kids playing games and pretending to be grown ups.
Dr. Shabibi is a very impressive individual by any standards and I think he understands what needs to be done, but he is still working with people who are learning how to be free and make the hard decisions without a dictator telling them what to do and think.
He can only do so much and then he has to wait for the rest of his government to catch up with him. The US and other countries as well as the UN and IMF are trying to help them grow up as well, but growing up is something that sometimes cannot be forced as evidenced by Maliki's actions over the last couple of weeks.
So, the bottom line is this.
If you want to avoid disappointment, and if you want to feel like you have made an investment that is of value and not worry constantly if you have been taken to the cleaners then you need to first study everything you can about this investment and understand it to the best of your ability.
Then you have to be realistic in your expectations about what is going to happen and when. As you read what is being said about when this will happen you can then have a better understanding about it and when a claim is made that just does not add up to what you have studied and learned about all this you can make an informed decision about whether you want to believe that claim and base your expectations on it or not.
I believe that the dinar will revalue and that it will revalue pretty soon and that belief is based on the things I have studied about Iraq and world currencies in general. The big unknown factor in all this is the new leaders of Iraq's government and their maturity level in running a world government for the first time.
So the way I look at this, once we arrived at Friday morning and there was no RV, I did not expect to see anything before Tuesday even though there were people all over these sites saying we would see it before the 1st.
I simply did not think that Iraq was mature enough to work on one of their holy days, and certainly not on a world holiday like New Year's Day. They will get back to it when it is convenient for them because they simply have not learned that they are part of the bigger world now and sometimes they might have to work on one of their holy days in order to play ball with the rest of the world.
They are still like a bunch of little kids playing at running a country that is part of the "real world". Some day they will grow up but until they do we have to expect them to act like the little kids they are and not make the hard decisions without delays and lots of time thinking about it, and we have to expect them to think they deserve their vacations and their holy days off even though taking that time off is causing misery and suffering to all the people of their country.
Don't be disappointed because we did not see the RV this weekend like many people were claiming. It is not the end of this ride just because so many people were claiming this would happen before now and it does not mean you have made a bad investment.
It simply means that those claims were not based on fact but on opinions and if you have studied Iraq and how they work you would not have expected them to do anything this weekend. This is still a great investment and you will see a return like nothing you have ever seen in your life, but it will happen when the leaders of Iraq are ready and when that will be is anybody's guess.