Fast Eddie: Many of you know me & Know I ask hard question on thing when I don't under stand what was said. I gave Kap a hard time when I first saw him say free float.
I had problems with how they could be able to do it. I thought the IMF would have a say do to regulations going into article 8 making them internationally traded currency. Over the passed week since I saw his theory I have seen articles talking about the possibility of the free float.
Now reading his theory again I realize I may have made a hasty judgment on it. When he said starting at 1166 & rising to a dime within a week was to show how fast it would rise if they did that.
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Fast Eddie Continues: I may still have concerns about the free float on if they can do it or not by what guide lines they must follow; But I don't fear the free float like I did before when I freaked out when I saw the theory.
We have no clue what route Iraq will take. But a free float could get us to where we want to be & with a free float you pick when you want to get out at a rate you feel comfortable at. So I say Iraq just make a move the ball is in your court.
KDuesing Replies: Shabs said in a article a long time ago that it would be a managed float so for me i dont waist time reading made up opinions from people like kap with to much time on there hands.
Vaquero Replies To KDuesing: I have not read anything from Shabibi or cbi about any float. Not saying ur wrong i have not read all the articles .i do believe that for Iraqis to benefit is for them to come out with a manage float.Hope they come out with a reasonable rate in what ever they do.
Vaquero Replies To Fast Eddie: "But a free float could get us to where we want to be & with a free float you pick when you want to get otu at a rate you feel comfortable at." do not forget that this is for Iraq not for us we are in for the ride; as it can go up to liking it can go down and hurt Iraq. IMO I believe Shabbibi will go with a manage float. Still doesn't mean that is will not be go for us. Eddie depends on the rate he comes out with
Few24U Replies: Free float could be bad or good.....depending on what rate you can live with and the things that have to happen to get it up there.
Myself, give me a managed RV at a buck ASAP please and I'll see you in Disney Land
Shredd Replies: Any bank knows the importance of mitigating RISK. It can make or break a bank. We've seen articles on the Basel III and KYC (Know Your Customer) compliance and the importance of Iraq's banks to be compliant.
That said, the Central Bank will definitely mitigate risk at all costs. Do you think Shabbs will have a hand in seeing the Dinar getting too strong, too fast and thereby costing the bank much more than necessary to bring in the remaining notes? No way. Also, do you think Shabbs will let the Dinar come out and be on the rise, but then fall on it's face? Again, no way.
In my opinion, coming out on a free float, where the market determines it's rate, is too risky. We've seen strong evidence that the Central Bank has a very strategic plan and "rolling the dice" like this right out the door doesn't make sense. No one, including Shabbs can predict exactly how the market will respond to a free float.....that spells R.I.S.K.
Dezertheat Replies: I agree with Shredd, they will not come out on a free float and they will not come out under a dollar (IMO).
The IMF 2 years ago said they could support a rate of 1.72 to 2.50, based on 20% of GNP, that was before the New oil fields, gold and gas was found, so tec, they could even come out stronger if they want to, but perhaps they will just slighty be stronger than USD OR kuwait... I know they have a little ego battle going on between the strengh of their currencies.
It will be interesting to see just were they come out the gate at. I think we all will be very happy WHEN this finally happens... JMO
Tobyboy Replies: Shredd I am in agreement with you will not come out with a free float would be too much of risk with CBI. I do feel will come out low they had couple articles saying want 1000 dinar to 1.00 dollar. They want to get dinar vs dollar stronger & been having trouble getting doing this so far.
This I believe will be what they will start with removing 166 pips bring down to 1000 to 1 Holding a bit and gradually moving up to 1.00 by first year we see a 1 to 1 rate JMO
Kaperoni Replies: I felt the same way on a free float when I heard this new plan. I even said almost the same words as many of you. But I must say, these experts who were discussing it, cleared my thinking up in a hurry. It will be good for Iraq, and good for all other parties involved.
Now will it free float? If what I heard is true, that these firms involved signed an agreement with the CBI last weekend (just prior to the beginning of the conference) then yes, it's done and we wait for the implimentation.
There has been some supporting articles as well to confirm a free float, but as everything, it aint done till it's done.
Sit tight, and lets let it play out and come to us. Kap
Tobyboy Replies to Kap: Kap No disrespect to you and would like this to happen soon but I am still under belief this will be a straight fixed RV as I stated above hope I am wrong