Memphis: "Change Is Coming To America" Part 3 of 3
ON CIVIL UNREST
Commodities, stocks, bonds? All will be in a state of flux but this time frame will mark the final big push into bond markets creating the high before confidence then begins to shift OUT of gov't; from public into private havens. Many have heard that as far back as 1985 Armstrong began predicting 2015.75 as "Big Bang" but even now few appreciate what this means! It does not mean a stock market collapse and Great Depression on that day.
What this date, Oct01, 2015, marks is the PEAK IN CONFIDENCE in gov't and this will drive many changes. From this point onward gov't debt will matter as confidence shifts away to private assets and interest rates will necessarily rise.
People are waking up and this is all very much "on the radar" of those in charge. The citizens are expected to become the threat to government and governments everywhere have prepared for this.
So from October2015 we will see civil unrest amplify. For a barometer here WATCH EUROPE!! With few exceptions, what's coming to our shores will hit there first.
There are many events driving this (and none conspiracy) that include a few notables such as the unraveling of socialism (government promises), the growing insolvency of our pension system, rising taxes, corruption, police state surveillance (i.e. gov't intrusion) and social problems such as refugees driven by war into a land that already has trouble enough keeping it's own people employed.
As a nation state enters decay it's first default is not external but internal. Obligations to the citizens slowly but steadily evaporate before open default to other sovereign states. This is already well underway and most likely we all know personal accounts of benefits being cut back etc.
Governments inability to continue handouts will begin to show major cracks in 2016 and on the state level watch Illinois as they are likely to be the 1st state to openly default from insolvency.
By now most are at least somewhat aware of the problems in Greece but wait until it involves a nation whose economy and debt level truly affects the balance sheet. Next up.... Italy?
In America Detroit was but a marker along the pathway (a harbinger of more to follow) that many have already forgotten. Their annual expenditures just to meet pension demands exceeded 50% before they finally threw in the towel. Others states and municipalities will follow with California being somewhere in the early mix. Understand that California's economy dwarfs that of many nations!
PENSION FUNDS - THE LOW HANGING FRUIT
The pensions are already shifting into US Treasuries and this will become mandated over the next few years. It will be sold to us (packaged) as gov't saving our future and protecting these $18T of monies from certain ruin in this environment of low interest and volatile markets.
By 2020 few of us will be able to retire as planned for these funds will in large measure be destroyed by their exposure to deflation and low rates of return and lost in the paper shuffle of settling the bad bets made by banks along with our nation's debts. What remains will likely have capital controls placed over it such that pensioners will receive allotments determined by some gov't agency.
Recall the recent revelation that Illinois has no fund set aside to honor all their huge Lotto payouts? Just as in our SS system these monies have been spent, obligated, etc. The vault is empty; in coming years this will be the growing reality for pensions and it gives me no pleasure to say it.
"When people lose everything, and they have nothing else to lose? They lose it!" ~ Gerald Celente
AS GOVERNMENT RECEDES
As a footnote, many societal shifts are coming as hard working people lack work and basic needs go unmet. Among these we see food pantries are already a growing lifeline to MULTITUDES and their business will be growing faster than anyone could imagine. Opportunities will about for people with a big heart. Yes this will mirror the Great Depression in many respects but with a major twist....
THE END OF BIG GOVERNMENT
"...government seizes more power and claims it alone possesses the power to alter the future by preventing the [business] cycle from every happening again. They have never succeeded, not even once. Some seven agencies approved the real estate CDOs that blew up the world in 2007 — SEVEN!
Not a single agency understood the dimensions [the risks] of what they approved. There is not a single instance of government embracing anything that will eliminate the business cycle. Yet at every turn, they promise to accomplish what no one has ever done in history."
Excerpt From: "Thinking & Understanding the Right Track"
Posted on September 10, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Not only will Government not be there with the solutions, Government will be the problem. Big government will begin dying in America in 2016 but will not go quietly into the night, this will take years. Based on cycles and the current evidence, the 2016 elections will either be suspended under Marshall law or we will see a 3rd party type person (non-establishment) elected as president.
It is important to see the trend unfolding here. Trump's popularity means nothing to us for it is the underlying message that holds value. People are waking up and he is simply evidence to this. The move is away from ANY establishment politician and this supports the trend and THIS will be the 2016 election story regardless who prevails.
Tho seemingly impossible today (with just over a year to elections) the establishment may not even allow the election to be held, "Suspended pending a national crisis". Just as a good lawyer does not ask the witness a question unless he/she already knows the answer?
The establishment will not allow an election if the outcome is sure to produce a president that they do not control. yes this is sick and disgusting on many levels but is part of my conclusion. Let's move on to the land of Mayberry...
MILITARIZATION OF THE POLICE
If you think that local law enforcement has changed from the days of Mayberry then your right. If you think that this will not intensify you simply need to look at all the evidence. Not what they might say but by observation; what they are doing and to history, what shall we expect.
Our government at all levels will be fighting to maintain the status quo and will fight (literally) to preserve it. As a guide, history speaks clearly on this point and we must not ignore her message in this regard.
The turning of government against it's citizens is an important marker of the last stage, that of the decline and fall of any nation state, and when we emerge on the other side America will look nothing like it did going in. There are so many indicators (evidences) that America is in this stage of decline that we could park right here to discuss it and NEVER finish.
Let's close this thought with an example (a snapshot) in support. I chose this from all the many possibilities simply because it seems likely that few would even consider it into their thinking. For decades now we have slowly been losing our common tongue of English. This is not an insignificant thing as expressed by looking to the fall of Rome:
"What made the Roman Empire last so long was the single language. As Julius Caesar said in war – “Divide and conquer.” If a nation diverts into regional languages, they will lose the bond that holds the nation together. Any empire with multiple languages [becomes] split according to language. Hello! Look at Ukraine, East (Russian) and West (Ukrainian)."
Excerpt From: "Language is the Key to an Empire"
Posted on September 5, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
SO BUYING "STUFF" IS THE WAY TO GO THRU THIS?
Not an "advice" letter here so let me be brief. Based on current price/time data, metals should bottom by mid 2016 and as government confidence begins to wane they will rise as a reflection of this, likely hitting highs that might seem impossible today. Holding a portion of assets in metals as a hedge against government is sound advice thru this stage.
DURING this time it will appear as a great financial gain but when the dusts finally settles post 2020 and we do the math it will likely be more true that we simply PRESERVED our wealth. Regardless of how and where we allocate, preservation is important in the next several years.
"If we head into a Mad Max event, that is the full-blown control-alt-delete which means the ONLY thing of value will be food/weapons. You can have all the gold in the world, but without food, you die...Your idea that ONLY gold and silver are the “recognized” mediums of exchange shows that you have been brainwashed by gold promoters and are ignoring history.
Gold will rise in “value” expressed in the medium of exchange provided we are NOT going into a Dark Age after 2032. Gold is an “asset” and it will rise in value against money as will all other assets (stocks) when people lose CONFIDENCE in government.
Gold is a recognized worldwide commodity for it is the same everywhere which cannot be said for rice, wheat, or even corn...If you do not look at everything around you, you will lose everything for what you expect from gold is by no means realistic."
Excerpt From: "Why Money Need Not Be “Tangible”
Posted on September 9, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Real Estate valuations like all asset classes, are going to begin dropping noticeably by fall 2016 with a few turbulent years before a clear bottom is reached and confidence slowly returns.
Being a renter until then and a buyer at the bottom is one obvious strategy. High end real estate has created the illusion of good times but as foreign capital flows into the US real estate market continue to dry up the REAL trend (deflationary) will resume.
The decline in government confidence will again swing to eventually allow a rise in confidence in homes (the rule of law governs here) but another factor that must play out here is the decline in big government! Until such time we should expect property taxes as well as taxation on all fronts to rise. At this stage people historically just walk away from fixed assets.
Besides not being advice here, this is simply an accumulation of (again, the totality of) what some very smart men have concluded from observation. Beyond Armstrong I would point to a recent interview with renowned trends researcher Harry Dent last week on TruNews.com. He is a smart guy and nails it on most points. [link below]
WHAT ABOUT WAR?
"Sun Tzu,” Charlie said. John looked at him and smiled. “The enemy will never attack you where you are strongest. . . . He will attack where you are weakest. If you do not know your weakest point, be certain, your enemy will.” Excerpt From: William R. Forstchen. “One Second After.”
The build up of Russian troops, naval vessels, war planes in Syria is not for exercise and I look for an armed conflict (to save us all from ISIS) likely within the next several weeks but certainly before the holidays. The war cycle began early 2014 and runs thru 2020 and a solid progression has been unfolding.
This conflict will be very visible and played on all mass media with the threat of global war being thrown in as well. But that will come later.
The threat of global war will become high as we approach a window 2018-2020. This cycle is a strong one (reliable in it's frequency) and it's present convergence with the cycle of civil unrest and the decline of the western world including the worlds super power is a dangerous cocktail.
As such we should consider the threat of warfare in America as being a real possibility during this time frame. I prefer to leave any further speculation on warfare on the table, just not real comfortable sharing (as it quickly gets into opinion) but history does require that we not disallow the possibility for our nation to be attacked by an enemy and whether this ever comes to pass or not we simply should enter this window of time with our eyes opened to the reality that we will be more susceptible than at any previous time in our history.
A measure, a key, to watch will be the reaction from our leaders in Washington. Do they show signs of relenting, accepting the new normal, or do they dig in their heels. It is troubling but not surprising that thus far there are no signs of retreat.
Not surprising for we are simply reacting as men always do and any deviation from this will truly be a step forward for mankind. This point is not included here as filler, these things are an essential part of making probabilities.
A final marker (of my own choosing) is that of a large and open defeat to our navy in hostile waters as it would be a harbinger of more to follow. Just an opinion here based on...history.
LOOKING AT EXTREMES
There are some vastly different outcomes still possible and at present we can only speculate on them. It should be stated that in this discussion? We stand a chance of seeing an extreme outcome in America. What does that mean? We must be careful to define this as it is not meant to spark fear.
Simply put, in the coming years America will be more vulnerable than at any time past. Mathematically stated, the probabilities rise significantly. This then does NOT equate to any precise prediction. With that let's briefly look at some extremes:
We presently have an increasing toxic mix of growing fascism and totalitarianism taking root in America. If left unchecked and allowed to see it's extreme form it will morph into full blown Marxist communism.***
This is the dream of the globalists in the UN but I do not see them winning the day unless they first take our guns and then overrun our land. CERTAINLY an extreme but it is their desire to disarm and we must appreciate that.
***[note: Before firing off an email here in reply, recognize that our society has slowly been conditioned to look to government and that "sharing the wealth" is now looked at by MANY as a moral act such that over 1/2 of our nation would likely accept this transformation.]
One likely means to do this would be an EMP attack to take down our power grid. Again, to be very clear, this is an extreme example, not meant to imply that this is LIKELY. It is simply a very real "possibility" and as such we watch for warning signs along the road.****
**** [note: A fictional account of what such an event would look like is "One Second After" written by William R. Forstchen. This book is considered such a good resource for the "what if" discussion that a complimentary copy was given to every member of the US Congress upon it's release.]
A second means to create crisis and restrict our movement is the spread of epidemic.
Our military labs have been in the news quite often this year with stories of mishandling and mislabeling various pathogens. This from last Thursday Sept10 concerning bubonic plague:
On the opposite extreme we endure some years of lack and come out the other side with our guns intact, the globalists (and all enemies of America) are sent packing, and our liberties slowly returned. This likely means that some form of revolution (a WIDELY misunderstood word) has taken place.
If American history were still taught then we would all be armed with the knowledge that our founders actually foresaw such a day and prepared for it, considering revolution as a healthy and necessary thing to repel an out of control government.
I know this section is not light reading but it seemed necessary to briefly attempt to define for history is quite clear on this point. We will be facing some critical crossroads as a nation and the next 5yrs will be pivotal as we follow the trends and identify those moments that will define our course.
Lest we take things too far in our perspective it is important to also see great opportunity thruout this timeframe. The greater the darkness becomes the more easily light can shine thru and at some critical point there will be shining examples of brighter days ahead.
RESPECTING HISTORY IS SO VITAL
"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach." ~ Aldous Huxley
The history of man is one that repeats despite how wise each successive generation thinks it has become. Why? Because at all levels our responses are based upon our nature, our passions, our greed for self, our confidences (fear of what might be), these things never change. Each has his/her part in the play and in the end we repeat (or at least rhyme) those who have gone before.
So regardless of the 2016 election, America and Americans are facing, at minimum, four years of growing hardship and beyond this we face a new normal that cannot be defined very well (as of yet) other than a general return to old time customs (talk to your grandparents for answers) that make any society strong and a new generation that grows up knowing nothing about pining for stuff and spending days at the mall.
The failed exercise in socialism is now finally diagnosed as terminal and will be dying it's much awaited death during this time frame. Folks who are able to "self sustain" will feel the pain the least. Do we live near a large city or in isolation.
These things have been carefully mapped out by many including our government and there is one single concern here that I will briefly describe in case the reader has not prepared.
Only within the last century has society transitioned to a state where few can survive alone. The advance of the Industrial Age brought advancements in farming and transportation, refrigeration, mega grocery stores, just in time inventories to stock them, and a population where few know how to grow a garden.
America's food is grown in massive farming operations and then shipped hundreds and thousands of miles to finally arrive on our local grocery shelf.
This is a carefully choreographed process that has many potential threats built in. For example if the sun releases an earth facing CME and critical components of our power grid go out then most homes in America would be barren of food in less than a week.
Many events (both natural and man made) could cause a major disruption to the supply chain and this should be an informed part of every family's plan as we enter the next few years.
Laying aside emotion we should all consider at least a basic level of preparedness.
To conclude, none of these topics that we have opened here are "guesstimates" or wild speculation. I did not employ a dartboard in deciding what to write about today. I truly wish that ALL of the above was a fictional "what if" and my name were Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged) or George Orwell (1984) writing of some future society.
Certainly none of us wish or want any of the above but regardless of it's final form, change is coming like a steam roller, it will exceed most present day expectations, and the choices made in preparing will likely be as varied as the responses that follow it's arrival.
Even within the closed circle of dinar holders it appears that a majority are of the mindset that we just need the RV and all is well. Is this the case or are there still hurdles that we must jump and hazards to go around?
Yes some dinar groups are attempting to raise, to elevate, the discussion and they deserve our applause but from where I sit there are many individuals who have yet to engage.
The time for engagement is now for this is a mental journey, a process, and like anything worth while in life it requires time to grow. Few things in life come suddenly or easily and gaining the needed perspective for the days ahead will not just come to us; it must be pursued.
The canvas used in painting today's picture is admittedly much larger than normal and so as I send this out my hope is that somehow the body of it's message will still show thru as it seems an important one.
Links to support the above material with thousands more available:
The Three Bombshells Tucked Inside The Continuing Resolution to Fund the Gov’t
Posted on December 14, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
Understanding BIG BANG 2015.75
Posted on December 28, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
Where do we Hide? Was Dante Right? Is the End Near?
Posted on December 15, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
The #1 Terrorist Group = Domestic Citizens
Posted on September 2, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Political Corruption Sanctioned by Mainstream Press?
Posted on September 5, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Uprising Against Government is Global
Posted on September 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Interview with Trends Economist Harry Dent
“I have heard that White Mountain would rather I stick to my knitting,” he wrote, testily, to his original backer, “though it is not clear to me that White Mountain has historically understood what my knitting really is.” No one seemed able to see what was so plain to him: These credit default swaps were all part of his global search for value. “I don’t take breaks in my search for value,” he wrote to White Mountains. “There is no golf or other hobby to distract me. Seeing value is what I do.”
Excerpt From: Lewis, Michael. “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.”