Post From KTFA By Memphis » September 9th, 2014 •
Memphis: Given that the World bank, by their own words, are now satisfied with Iraq's level of preparedness is it not fair to have expectation?
Before attempting to make an argument here that the book on "the re-pricing of the Iraqi dinar" is about to (can I say "finally"?) be closed, let's take a trip back in time and recall some past information that may prove helpful in our discussion.
In late 2011 and into mid 2012 we were told that the CBI's strategic project contains three phases and that each was to last 6mo. This one has often had me scratching my head as it has been an illusive thing trying to determine the start date that they were using! In truth, at some point I gave up trying.
Tho I wouldn't make a doctrine of it, it seems noteworthy that not only was Iraq's big debut held 18mo ago but their national meeting was in the same month as was Mr. Turki's long forgotten words: "Soon the friends of Iraq will be very surprised".
O, and one more thing I almost forgot, but not really, the article that we are about to read from the World Bank was also delivered to Iraqi press in that same month, March2013, 18mo ago.
Was March2013 the opening of the CBI's three phased plan? We cannot say for sure but I would point out that one further evidence (a prerequisite) has just been fulfilled with the removal of al-Maliki as PM. I would argue that hindsight is not "20-20".
In thinking ahead, it is everything. In the moment that Iraq's parliament placed their vote last night, many past statements and events could instantly be brought back to the table for re-examination and the article that follows will be used as "exhibit A".
We have been told for years that their central bank is separate and independent from their gov't but in the same breath we have also been told that there is a COOPERATION that is required between the two. It has seemed clear in recent weeks, and made official last night, that to obtain this cooperation, for Iraq to move forward, required new leadership.
Nearly 30days ago the nation of Iraq placed a man in nomination for the position of prime minister. Last night he and his proposed gov't was ratified and THIS is why I am sitting here typing. The article that follows will be the vessel that we use to frame the discussion and last nights event will play heavily into making my point.
Yes, it truly was a big deal guys.
I think we can all agree that the ratification of Iraq's full gov't (Monday's vote) speaks directly towards political stability. In the following article we will read language speaking to "raising the value of the Iraqi dinar".
On the surface there is no real connection between this and having a seated gov't tho, at least not in my mind. However if the World Bank were to somehow link the two? To make a connection that one begets the other?
Here we are in Sept2014 with the obvious advantage of hindsight. There have been many times that seemed "right" to us and yet they were not. When this article 1st appeared (yes I remember it) right before their ANTICIPATED "national meeting" that same month, it seemed to add much weight to that timeframe and yet here we are.
Three months later they were released from UN Ch7 sanctions and still nothing. Rather than repeat past mistakes of trying to make things always fit the "now", let's take this article and hold it back up to the light and (using proper scrutiny) see if it has anything to say to us in light of current events.
A final opening point, this economic event is not taking place thru chance or random luck. The fate of our investment has never hinged on daily events such as:
"I sure am glad they stopped ISIS from retaking that dam!" or "He's taken over the military and surrounded the green zone in Baghad!"
There is a high level of planning and coordination that is being deleveraged....now. The most wealthy, powerful, and (I would argue) greedy people on the planet are fully in control of this event.
In all my wanderings I have never found any evidence to contradict this truth and that can actually form part of our confidence in that their greed is a further assurance that this anticipated event will take place.
The World Bank statements here from Mar2013 (that Delta has brought back for consideration) gave some specifics that we will now attempt to draw out. If the reader will indulge and roll up their mental shirt sleeves with me (just like ole times) re-visiting this article will help to further illuminate the reality of where we are in our investment.
All bold font below is to denote my added thoughts and anything in [brackets] is added to bring clarity to the article itself and thus NOT part of the original press release from 18mo ago. It is important that the reader consider the added words as an imperfect attempt to clarify. Put another way, please study it and decide for yourself if you are in agreement or where you might see a different meaning.
DELTA » September 7th, 2014, 9:40 pm
World Bank restructures Bank Rafidain and Rasheed [in preparation] for raising the value of Iraqi dinar
24/03/2013 12: 39: 47 March 24, 2013 Baghdad/Obelisk: counting the Minister of planning Ali Shukri, Sunday, the World Bank announced the launch of its plans to restructure the Government banks and Rafidain "the [implementation of this] important step was [important to avoid] awaiting [delay in the subsequent move by] Iraq to increase the value of the dinar".
Memphis: some thoughts here:
1) The words "important step" should be recognized as supportive of the overall argument that the CBI's strategic project of monetary reform is not and has never been a 'seat of the pants' operation.
If it has ever APPEARED so to us it was simply a limitation on our part as gaping holes of information are intentionally withheld. Recall a year ago my post that the IMF can and does: "withhold market sensitive information"? This was their own admission made in a published article IV review of Iraq!
2) The above underlined sentence implies that the planned timing of this roll-out of the World Bank staff into the Iraq gov't banks was scheduled (with intent and a planned timing) to be a precursor to the re-pricing of their money. This opinion seems to be supported by the next paragraph in the article.
He said El shukrijumah for "the Obelisk", "the World Bank announced the launch of its plans to restructure the Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank government [this] job [was a needed] step [that] was awaiting Iraq [to be completed]", stating that "[the parliamentary] financial [committee] welcomed the [World] Bank's move in this direction because this [much needed] structure will ensure the country [is] making the most of [finding the proper balance of] the two alkbert [dynamics] of human capacities [sufficient staffing levels] and accumulated experience [the proper training] of staff and coordination of these capabilities."
Memphis: Two thoughts:
1) The last portion reads to me as an anticipation that they will see more VOLUME, more customers, after the dinar's value is restored. For example, the words 'human capacities' is a little abstract but does it not speak to the fact that there is only so much that a person can do? If true, does my added paraphrase seem fair? It seems clear that the Iraqi banks have (for 18mo) been....gearing up.
2) the above text uses the word 'financial' all by itself and I chose to further define it as: 'parliamentary financial committee'. This was done for two reasons:
1) It seemed to fit the text on my initial reading (as in 'first impressions').
2) The following paragraph invokes this very same group into the discussion.
"The Finance Ministry stressed that these plans [will prove to] be guarantor [assurance of success] for restoring [the] Iraqi dinar to [it's rightful] place [regarding the] economic value [rate of exchange] between [the dinar and all] foreign currency and this will be part of the plan, adding that" the banking sector generally suffer from laziness to [lags behind demand from] consumer organizations [that] are active in the financial sector the most popular movement in the economy in General. "
Memphis: Of importance, the finance committee in parliament came out around mid 2012 in sudden and full support of the CBI's strategic project. A close look at the above language is quite reminiscent of this past enthusiasm. We might also consider that this shift in attitude from them was under the leadership of Mr. al-Abadi whose new promotion to PM was also very much 'planned'.
Memphis: If you are still with me here, this next portion is where the World bank actually gave us an important marker to follow with an unmistakable connection to the value of Iraq's currency:
He noted that the World Bank stressed to the Iraqi side that lifted the value of the Iraqi dinar should be among the priorities it needs political stability in the country before everything. "
Memphis: Did that sentence seem a bit convoluted? It often occurs that a sentence gets all jumbled up when translated into English and by simply lifting out a few mis-placed words and re-inserting them in their proper place the sentence can usually be made true to it's intended message.
Memphis: Tho obviously a subjective process, doing this with the above sentence suddenly makes it's intended message clear to the reader. In keeping with HUNDREDS of past articles that spoke along these lines, some directly from the World Bank, I suggest that it be arranged as follows:
He noted: "among the priorities that the World Bank [has] stressed to the Iraqi [political] side that should be [in place for] the value of the Iraqi dinar [to be] lifted, it needs before everything [above all] political stability in the country."
Memphis: Do you now see clearly the intended message? Is it not an amazing coincidence that the one thing that was needful in Iraq, from the perspective of the World Bank and their checklist, just happened to be fulfilled....yesterday? Nothing to see here....
The Gulf war led to the declining value of the Iraqi dinar in an unprecedented manner, bringing the Iraqi dinar to 0.144 dollars resulting in crippling the banking sector until the [present] year.
Memphis: In conclusion, we have certain markers that we can give added weight to and these must always be held up often for honest discussion/examination. Iraq's release from Ch 7 was one such example. I contend that the establishment of (and I quote):
"...political stability in the country" has never been fully met (never fulfilled) until yesterday. Can we not then say with confidence that there is an obvious purpose and intent in Iraq that we have been eagerly waiting for?