Memphis » April 22nd, 2013 • WOW, there is so much that could be said of the news from the past 8 days.
Those who have followed my posts this week will recall that I have been L@@King at things from the position that Dr. Shabibi was 'rumored' (from a very high and reliable source) to have been brought back into Baghdad last week under very tight security (i.e. secretly under cover of darkness) and coincidentally the news for the past week has given hints of a 'shift'.
For the most part I would summarize the recent 3 zero articles as all pointing to a concentration of control. It seems clear that the CBI has the controls in place. This weekend the news shifted to more detailed talk of the actual act, the doing of the deed.....the adding of value to the dinar thru the 'lifting' of the zeros.
I am generalizing here to save time and want to briefly showcase just four (4) articles from this weekend...
Read More Link On Right
For those unfamiliar with my posts speaking to articles, any words that are [contained within brackets] within the body of the article are added by me to help the flow of the sentence.
This at times unavoidably influences the meaning of the text and so I leave it to us all (as adults) to accept or reject the rendering. :thug:
By walkingstick » April 20th, 2013,
Central Bank announces opening of Basra on Sunday to sell foreign currency
Posted on Saturday, April 20, 2013 17: 49 | Posted by: mw/n | | |
Baghdad/Obelisk: Central Bank of Iraq, announced Saturday, to open new factories [financial centers] to sell foreign currency from dollar on Sunday.
Memphis Note: Tho my opinion here is admittedly tainted, it seems likely to me that this sudden urgency to provide more outlets for the exchange of monies is not 'as advertised' but rather to facilitate the ease of citizens coming to the bank for 'other' anticipated purposes of exchange. Just a thought...
Official said the World Bank for "the Obelisk", "the Central Bank decided to continue holding Basra on the sale of foreign currency from the dollar on Sunday as a normal day at work", pointing out that"the World Bank formally addressed all of the 21 banks that participate in the auction currency.
Memphis Note: Why is the world bank speaking for the CBI? That folks is BEYOND a change of pattern, that is a 1st... and further (and perhaps most importantly) why did the world bank 'formally address' the bank representatives at the Sunday auction? Wonder what they had to say that was so important? To my knowledge this is not 'normal'...
May I offer a suggestion here? "This meeting is to advise you formally that beginning (insert date here) the process of daily auctions will be changing..."
And the market saw buying and selling foreign currency from the dollar significantly on holiday devoted to the elections.
The General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers decided Saturday, disrupting official working in the provinces where provincial elections Sunday, to facilitate the transport of ballot boxes from polling stations to the National Centre for counting and sorting within the green zone of Baghdad.
The Iraqi Central Bank sales closed last Wednesday, declined significantly in sales of your dollar by buying and selling foreign currency of up to 88853000 million compared with 152157000 million dollars recorded at the meeting Monday, the stable exchange rate when 1166 DT per dollar LINK
Memphis Note: IMO possibly the greatest article to be released in the last 12 months...
By walkingstick » April 21st, 2013,
Economic center: the success of the project to delete the three zeroes depends on the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar 21-04-2013 11:36 AM
Baghdad (news) .. Said Prime Media Center Economic Dergham Mohammed Ali, that the success of the implementation of the project to delete the three zeroes from the national currency depends on the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar and educate citizens and give them enough time to replace the currency.
Memphis Note: This next paragraph is of great importance!! Mr. Ali speaks clearly to the fact that: "Folks we missed our window of greatest opportunity" and highlights reasons why 2011 and 2012 were great windows for the CBI to implement it strategic project but he doesn't stop there!
He continues with stating: "But all is not lost" and then details all the same things that have constituted the CBI's plan from day 1. Please take time to read it closely, it is too good to highlight only portions...
said Mohammed Ali (of the Agency news): The economic reality of the past year and the previous was fit better to receive the decision to delete the zeros of the capacity market to absorb its effects because of the high stability, which was dominated by the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar at the time.
continued: While the market has become more sensitive and broader change than it was a Mitrah [moot point or pointless to look backwards and] question the reasons for the postponement of this decision, but The implementation is still possible in the event of education in a positive way and give long enough to bring a replacement span for two years as planned during which the currency traded zero and currency deleted zeros.
Memphis Note: This next sentence is one to dance over! I have highlighted the words that you will likely already be focused on. Also notice that it ends with a clear statement that supports my opening comments. The word 'controls' is so central to what is about to take place in Iraq.
said: that the central bank demands to confirm the unit value between the two currencies and start substitution out for the new currency and within the trade and the rule of replacement [strict] controls strict and controlled high in order to prevent money laundering, and control strictly operations splurge of the coin ancient This allows the switch smoothly and safe. stressed: the need to focus the central bank on his tools to re-exchange rate of the dinar to the target levels, the successful implementation of the project. / End / 8 .. / LINK
Memphis Note: the words above: "...to confirm the unit value between the two currencies..." any guesses what that means in english? It likely means exactly what we WANT it to mean.
They CBI is about to establish a new ratio or exchange rate for the dinar relative to the $.....the RV....
It not only seems logical, but it fits the context of the sentence as a whole. Further, it fits Shabibi being back in the saddle and he has a list of demands............it would seem...
Memphis Note: Tho not a 'home run' article by most standards, this next article IMO ties into the one that follows and paints a picture for us that speaks to the momentum that is truly driving things forward with apparently increasing urgency:
By walkingstick » April 20th, 2013
Parliamentary agreement - a government to increase coordination between the government and private banks Created on Saturday, April 20 / April 2013 08:06 | | Baghdad / Orr News
Parliamentary Finance Committee agreed with the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to increase the size [depth] of the coordination between the government and private banks in order to develop the country's banking system and lift bureaucratic obstacles in banking transactions.
Committee member said Abdul-Hussein al-Yasiri "The Finance Committee agreed with the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the need to lift [improve or increase] the administrative and technical coordination and technical cooperation between government and private banks." He explained that the "deepening of the relationship between the government and private banks will strengthen the banking situation in Iraq and his dealings with different countries of the world," noting that "the Commission has informed the ministry of the need to strengthen the integration of private banks with weak heads the money."
The CBI earlier, he plans to convert the banks to large financial institutions after obtaining the approval of the Government to amend the Law No. 94 of 2004 on the integration of small banks to large banks. The parliamentary Finance Committee said it has developed a plan with the Ministry of Finance to promote electronic communication between the government and global banks during the next phase.
The Central Bank has identified 250 billion Iraqi dinars as a minimum for the establishment of private banks in the country as seen Economists believe that private banks do not have the tools necessary to promote monetary and economic reality in the country. LINK
Memphis: This last article seems to speak to a legal opinion of sorts that has been released. It appears to be the source of news that supports the previous article (above) that came out a day earlier as to the need for harmony and joint cooperation between the finance arm of gov't and the CBI. It is a good support for the CBI's much debated (and disputed) independence and I will highlight some of the more significant portions.
By JJONESMX » April 21st, 2013 22/04/2013
Central Bank independence required provided that [it is] accompanied [by or with] the government oversight Former minister d. Raed Fahmi "morning": Baghdad the Fatlawi
Placed [on file a brief that] accounted for the independence of the Central Bank [that] received wide attention by specialists and those interested in economic affairs and the leaders of a broad debate on the role and independence of the central [bank] and its relationship to the executive branch.
In an exclusive interview for the "morning" with former minister d. Raed Fahmi on the sidelines of a seminar hosted by the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform in this regard he said: that the independence of the Central Bank is required and desirable,
provided that is consistent with the role [delegated it] and [subject to] supervision from the government Some of the activities entrusted to the central bank out of part of the formulation and implementation of monetary policy to combat money laundering and the control and supervision of banks and put controls on it.
Fahmi said that the controversy over the central bank and the nature of its relationship with the executive and legislative powers and its role in policy-making cash to the country where she mixes political and technical considerations [of] specialist[s] [engaged] in a [larger]discussion [context] and pay trends on key issues and the implementation of sound economic policy and effective the national economy and check the conditions of development.
He added that [this overlap in jurisdiction and functions] necessarily requires compatibility and harmony between the two policies [distinct houses] of fiscal and monetary [requires] integration [of] work and doing political tools for each of them to achieve economic growth and rebuild and modernize and develop the physical infrastructure and institutional capacity and diversify the productive base of the Iraqi economy well as social objectives and distribution and dispose of equitable resources.
[He] Called to put issues over the controversy on the Central Bank in its proper context, away from the heated political disputes for the sake of [productive] discussion [that] leads to the findings and conclusions [which will] contribute to the visibility of the state's economic [goals] and evaluate the performance and upgrading institutional building State and effectively [develop both] the economic and financial policy tools and cash.
He said there are two basic Moduatan [arguments each] interrelated [that have long been] stirring [this] controversy [that can be quickly laid to rest], if the [discourse were to] transfer [from that] of political struggle and [into one that is] intellectually [centered] Mandmin,
the first [basic argument is] relating to the independence of the central bank and the other to its policy in the fight against inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar.
Regarding [the 1st, it has been] ordered the independence of the Central Bank , [within] the text of the Constitution in Article 103 that the CBI is an independent body, financially and administratively regulated work law and be accountable to the House of Representatives.
Work is still ongoing to the Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004 issued by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) despite the fact that its release prior to the Constitution, this law identified the objectives and functions of the central bank in the material (3) and (4) of Part One, where they were identifying the main objective of the bank "is to strive to achieve and maintain the stability of the domestic price, \
promote and maintain a stable financial system is competitive and based on the market, according to the Central Bank shall also promote sustainable growth, employment and prosperity in Iraq."
pointing out that the goals of the Bank include the fight against inflation and stabilize the financial system, which is wider than the monetary system, as well as to promote sustainable growth and employment.
The Bank is working to achieve these goals through the exercise of the functions specified in Article (4) and the most important, "the formulation and implementation of monetary policy, including exchange rate."
He added Based on these constitutional and legal provisions, the central bank [should be] considered [to] enjoy full legitimacy in the exercise of his authority to formulate and implement monetary policy independently.
The central bank [has] make [made clear] the goal of combating inflation axis and [or as] the center [central goal] of its procedures and employ his tools [as necessary to achieve these] targets linked to the bank and [also of importance] the obligations of Iraq as part of a program of economic and financial reforms with the International Monetary Fund and its requirements to support Iraq's request to ease the burden of foreign debts to the Paris Club.
Memphis Note: IMF references are important. The borrower is servant to the lender and Iraq is servant to the IMF much to the annoyance of many in Iraq's parliament who have often questioned why they of all nations need to accept such 'soft loans'. IMO it is for the very reason given here....leverage. Back to the news...
In this context. Fahmi said that the central bank [has authority to] use monetary policy tools available to him, and in particular recruit Iraqi dinar exchange rate as a means to control inflation and restrain him.
Memphis Note: let's look at the word 'recruit' here as I think it is important as a descriptor in this sentence!
We have read many words that MIGHT have been used such as 'change' or 'adjust' but the word 'recruit' denotes an intent to call up from inactive status and to be made active.
This also fits the language of many news releases in the past week. They have IMO moved beyond the old means of currency auction and are looking to the future and the recruitment of the dinars previously untapped value. Back to the news...
Memphis Note: a quick reading makes this next sentence appear as a game changer to us with 'dinar goggles' but in total it seems more of an explanation of the auction process that has always been a temporary (but necessary) tool in maintaining the dinars value. Just my opinion tho. Make it whatever you want to... :-)
For this purpose, the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market to raise the value of the dinar against the dollar and the defense of such high value of the dinar to meet all the demand for the dollar at this price through the sale of dollars to banks and money transfer companies licensed in the currency auction organized by the bank.
and reiterated in our opinion, the understanding and practice the road to the independence of the Central Bank and the monetary policy needs to review and debate serious transparent and scientific objectivity is the premise and foundation in which access to the harmonious economic policy and effective and efficient will achieving the goals of sustainable economic development and stimulate the growth and expansion of employment and the development of the productive sectors and raise the standard of living for all citizens.,
Memphis: To conserve time here let me just comment on this next paragraph and say that it is a support for my above argument that the word 'recruit' is consistent with a new mindset. The speaker gives some history and draws contrast to the true goals to which they are obviously ready to embrace!
and pointed out that the central bank's policy over the past years focused almost exclusively on the curb inflation and lower rates without Circulating attention required for the goal of sustainable growth and combating unemployment and also set forth the objectives of the bank,
but has been adopted policies may conflict with those objectives, as happened during the years in which interest rates rose to very high levels played a brake on investment to raise the cost of borrowing and encourage banks to deposit their money and liquidity at the central bank rather than directed towards credit to businesses and individuals,
and that the policy of the high exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar and calculating the cost worthy to be the subject of debate, it will encourage import and weaken the international competitiveness of Iraqi products,
they also reduce the amount of Iraqi dinar available to the general budget and government spending compared to dollar-denominated oil revenues that the government is turning it into Iraqi dinars with the central bank.
Memphis Note: here he finally tells us the purpose the goal of this whole discussion:
[He] noted that the objective of the these observations is marking [recognizing in advance] the conflict which may arise between the goal of monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank and the other important economic targets may be among the priorities of the government's financial policy,
and the safest way to avoid a large cash imbalance between the arms of economic policy the state, fiscal policy and monetary policy, is to achieve harmony in the objectives and provide effective mechanisms for coordination and interaction between devices and those responsible for the design and implementation of the two policies.
Fahmi called for the need to apply the principle of the independence of the central bank, and offers many experiences from developed countries [that] are clear examples of the [model for] partnership between the government and the central bank in setting monetary policy.
Memphis Note: this sentence reads (to me) as a legal opinion (a 'finding'):
So we do not find a conflict between such an understanding of the independence of the central bank and the provisions of Article (110 - III) relating to the competence of the federal authority that included "formulating monetary policy and the establishment of the Central Bank and his administration" including [the following argument that is often raised regarding...].
It is a paragraph related to the central bank as a federal authority, to point out that "monetary policy" came before "the establishment of the Central Bank" in the said paragraph.
He practically and objectively [allowed that] central banks do not have only a limited margin of autonomy in the control instruments of monetary policy in the oil countries, such as Iraq, where the money supply is determined primarily by the foundation of fiscal policy and government spending and quantities of hard currency,
which converts the government into the local currency at the Central Bank, which constitute the largest proportion of foreign assets at the bank and the main base for the amount of cash version,
on the other hand, interest rate is not only limited impact on the credit and economic activity due to lack of financial depth of the economy Iraq, which does not exceed the ratio of financial assets to GDP, 13 percent, compared to more than 400 percent in developed countries. He added impetus for any confusion in the understanding,
[He went on to] confirm that The Mhajajtna [extreme position is] not intended in the foregoing [language], [to the end of] compromising the principle of the independence of the central bank or minimize its role and its importance in preventing the government [from] resorting to monetary expansion to finance the budget deficit and the consequent inflationary pressures [that would] lead to an accelerated rise in prices and a decline in the value of the currency and its purchasing power,
which in turn leads to the effects of social and economic consequences [that] are reflected in the deterioration of the pension conditions of low-income groups and low-income, and imbalances in economic activity. Valastqlalah desirable and are required to be highly consistent with the reality of the country and the circumstances and to be associated with the appropriate government oversight,
especially as some of the activities assigned to the central bank out of part [in the course] of the formulation and implementation of monetary policy, of money laundering and control and supervision banks and placing controls on their work.
Such cooperation and coordination with the government and fiscal policy also required the anti-inflation process itself.
Inflation in Iraq is not due to monetary reasons and by, but his structural factors regarding the circumstances of processing and supply of goods and services does not affect the tools of monetary policy alone, but concerted Sanitary [sound] fiscal and monetary policies and the implementation of development programs that change the economic structure . LINK