(Thank you George for emailing this to Dinar Recaps.)
UU6852 – “ Currency Reform is Stalled – Why? ” by Mnt Goat
I first want to wish all my readers a very Happy New Year !
Sorry but today’s news letter is very long once again. The news channels are just chock full of GOLDEN NUGGETS again and I want to bring it all to you today. The news is all VERY good.
I sincerely hope you can now see the BIG picture in what is holding up any significance increase in the value of the Iraq dinar. This holdup however is only temporary and we will see progress beginning very soon.
Today I talk about all the necessary laws needed to finish the critical parts of the Abadi reforms and complete their government. By the end of this news letter you should be very aware of these laws and be able to tell everyone why they are stalled and when Iraq is now projecting to complete them.
Today is Monday January 4th 2016 and yes we have entered the new year already and still no RV.
Some say the RV would/must happen prior to Jan 1st 2016 or the IMF will take it over. Really?
Really and so its Jan 4th and where is it?
I can not find even a shred of evidence to even suggest such a plan. I am however hearing rumbles of possible action against Iraq in UN this week that could be instigated by GB and USA. This action could be associated with the inability to implement these reforms (including the monetary reforms) that are needed on time, as agreed. I will talk more about this in the update today in the currency reform section.
Also I need to clarify (once again) my stand on calling the RV. I can only give you a window when I believe that there might be a strong reason for saying it based on FACTS. This is only then a possibility for the RV to occur. I ALWAYS back up my stance with strong evidence NO Hype, NO Rumors, just the FACTS. I can only go on what Iraq tells us. Their targets often move out as they are always late but are overly optimistic in their planning and timing. I can not predict the future….sorry!
My recent suggested possibilities for an RV included early December 2015 and now later January to early February 2016 and I backed up all my claims with solid news from the CBI , the finance ministry and the parliamentary news channels.
I also suggested my claims through the many articles and news broadcasts from Iraq. If you haven’t learned by now that these damned rates on the bank screens, or speeches in the mosques or ticker tapes running across the TV do not mean anything (and I mean absolutely nothing). If you are gullible enough to get all hyped up soley by listening to this nonsense you have a serious problem.
So you do not need to be passing out any information about times of an RV to anyone or claiming to be a so called intel “guru” if you are not responsible and can manage the information you do get.
The news in the last week could not get any better. Iraq has recently clarified many topics for us and told us so many GOLDEN NUGGETS in their recent onslaught of articles. Are you paying attention?
I did not say there would be an RV in Iraq until they progressed and accomplished all their needed goals to achieve the political and physical security, then we might be in a good position. I have stood very firm on my stance on this topic and still do today. In fact just recently the Abadi has explained to the citizens of raq why the reforms stalled (yes- this does include currency reform too). So below is an article in this respect. See if you can find the three main reasons. These are the same reasons I have been telling you all along. Do you believe me now as to what has been holding up the RV?
I quote from the article below - "the main reason for the slowdown in the implementation of reforms is that 1) PREOCCUPIED WITH THE WAR against Daash 2) ECONOMIC CRISIS and 3) POLITICAL CONSENSUS GOVERNMENT,"
So they are coming right out and telling the reason for the holdups. But what are the outcomes of these three areas of concern and what are they holding up? So let us look in more detail to each of these reasons today.
Did I not say they needed to take care of ISIS and DAASH to maintain physical and political security prior to any RV? How do they do this? They will do this be the reforms and they need laws to implement the reforms.
What does lack of political consensus tell us? It tells us the are having problems getting the needed laws passed. These laws are needed for reforms and stability in Iraq. They are also needed to “fully” implement their new constitution. They need a fully functional government prior to any RV. Get it?
So we see these reforms appear to be stalled now since Sept-Oct 2015.
When will they move forward on these reforms once again?
I quote again from the article below – “stressing that "AFTER THE VICTORIES ACHIEVED BY THE IRAQI ARMY forces stage, it will be the reforms prioritized. Whether the functions of government in the judicial careers, agricultural or industrial field, etc., to the fact that PARLIAMENT IS THE LEGITIMATE MEANS TO THESE DEMANDS AND REFORMS not to be silent or ignore procrastination by the ministries and departments concerned in the implementation. "
NO Banks Screens, NO speeches in the mosques, NO ticker tapes running across my TV screen are necessary to tell the story of this continuing RV saga.
NO Hype, NO Rumors, just the FACTS!
PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE REVEAL THE REASONS FOR SLOWING DOWN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF GOVERNMENT REFORMS
Special - scales News
Revealed the Parliamentary Integrity Committee, it said on Saturday that the government will begin to work to achieve the reforms demanded by the citizens through the weekly demonstrations, and after the completion of some important files preoccupied by the government as processes of liberalization and others.
Said committee member Abdul Karim Alabtan L / scales News /, that "the main reason for the slowdown in the implementation of reforms is that preoccupied with the war against Daash economic crisis and political consensus government," stressing that "after the victories achieved by the Iraqi army forces stage, it will be the reforms of the first Whether the functions of government in the judicial career, agricultural or industrial field, etc., to the fact that parliament is the legitimate port to these demands and reforms nor for any silent or ignore procrastination by the ministries and departments concerned in the implementation. "
He Alabtan, "The demonstration is a right guaranteed in the constitution and citizens' demands legitimate to fight corruption and out of political sectarianism and improve other sectoral situation", adding that "the prime minister Haider al-Abadi far from quotas and sectarian aristocratic government to adopt in order to lift Iraq from its crises no later more than 6 months, and the successful minister must move away from belonging to any political bloc so that it can provide and the success of the reform. "
The streets of the Iraqi capital Baghdad and some provinces witnessing weekly demonstrations to protest against poor services and the deterioration of economic conditions and others, demanding the government to implement reforms that threaten them for months.
Of course many of you don’t want to hear all the details I am telling you in my news letters and just want to skim over them and just try to “pick” out an RV date. You copy and paste only the words you want to defend you stance that the RV did not happen as Mnt Goat said it would. First of all this in itself is a lie since I do not predict dates only windows of opportunity and it all comes directly from an evaluation of the news.
NO Hype, NO Rumors, just the FACTS and you can read it for yourself in the articles I present. If you chose not to agree with my evaluation of the situation that is your choice and that is okay with me, but please, please present me with something then that is logical and evidenced and not just regurgitate what some ignorant intel “guru’s” gave you during one of his so called “intel calls”.
I do not mind a good challenge and so bring it on! It them becomes apparent is it my choice too to disregard and simply ignore you.
So we witnessed first they recently announced to us they will address the Judicial Court law and Amnesty in the first sessions of parliament in the new year (see more in Update: Needed Laws). Then they told us the National Guard law would come very soon afterwards. Their words not mine. They also told us, once we reached early December, that the 50k notes would be launched and that these notes “pave the way for the project to delete the zeros”. Then later they told us they “postponed” the launching till late January / early February. Is is too hard to follow all this? You have to change your thinking as Iraq updates us constantly on newer news. This situation is dynamic. Do you know what the word “dynamic” means?
Dynamic Situation defined by merriam-webster: “marked by usually continuous and productive activity or change”
So what the heck did “pave the way for the project to delete the zeros” mean anyway?
I talked in detail already about this statement made by the CBI in one of recent past news letters. Did you read it? I said it meant that the new 50k notes would be launched and this actions would impact the beginning of the process of collecting the final 3 zero notes out of circulation coinciding with the launching of the new lower denominations. Part of this collection of the 3 zero notes means that they must raise the value of the dinar to over the value of the US dollar to get the people of Iraq and then subsequently the international community to go to the banks and exchange their US dollars for dinar and for us foreign investors in our situation to exchange our 3 zero dinars for US dollars, Canadian dollars or Euros.
So now we have about 4-5 weeks to wait and I strongly expect we will gradually hear more and more about the currency reform, the project to delete the zeros, the launching of the lower denoms and the last of these critical new reform laws needed prior to any RV. Oh- we are already in that they came out with two articles in the past three days on this topic.
Remember the CBI told us this is not a secret and they will try to inform us the best way possible. But remember the “us” is not you and me but the citizens of Iraq and that we are only outside benefactors of this information. We must collect it the best way we can and present it to the public as responsible information journalists.
This whole RV intel stuff has gotten way out of hand. It is truly not about trying to guess when the RV will occur or by watching the bank screens, having secret sources that read UST memos to the banks, listening to speeches in the mosques or what they say on Iraqi TV. It has been 4 years of this already and so when will we learn this stuff simply does not matter.
Instead is all about just relaxing and letting the news from Iraq tell us the story as it is told by the people responsible for running the government and the CBI. It is that simple and that easy.
Why all the games and the appearances of having to sneak around to get information? I don’t get it. All the information you need it right in the everyday news from Iraq. It has always has been there however this kind of news does not make these so called intel “gurus” unique and special and so they don’t want to emphasis this news because you can go and get it all for FREE. Yes – absolutely FREE news, no donations needed, no fees, no subscriptions, no translator fees or to buy news letters and certainly do no need to sign up for RV alerts. It is all such foolish nonsense and hype. It is time for it all to stop!
Update: Currency Reform
Low and behold…..lol…so what before my wandering eyes should appear, but a sleigh with eight tiny reindeer (just kidding…lol)! Really it was not reindeer but rather 2 articles in three days of the currency reform and that got me excited. The articles are saying almost exactly the same thing but the important part is the economists are putting pressure on the CBI and outward recommending they take action now. Two articles…WOW! I presented just one of the article below to save space in the news letter.
Almost as good as a late Christmas present….lol…
At the time of these articles we have not even reached mid January and yet the economists are already jumping on this topic once again. They are talking favorably about the launching of the new lower denominations. WOW!
It has been weeks since they told us anything new related to this topic as we know the process has been stalled and they told us today in another article I present that it has been stalled, so it is not my words by theirs.
So in case you are wondering if currency reform is stalled? YES IT IS ! GET IT? But why?
No one is exchanging in Canada or India. No one is rolling out the RV slowly. Funny too that no one ever bothers to ask those who make these statement - What bank?, what currency are they exchanging?, and at What rate? I find this amazing on how they can’t tell you when asked. Didn’t they even ask the person making these statements?
In case you don’t know banks exchange currency everyday…lol…lol... Did you ever take a trip to a foreign country? You will need their currency. But is it the 3 zeros notes they are referring to in these exchanges they make reference to?
So even if it was, for all we know it could be at the CBI rate of 1180 and not an RV rate. Instead they don’t tell us and just make these blanket statements as “they are exchanging dinar in India”. Or maybe these people who are exchanging are fed up with all the scams and simply are getting out of their IQD investment and are giving up and selling it back to the bank? We don’t know since they never tell us this detail of information.
So is this the exchange we are concerned about? So what is all the hype about? Too many unanswered questions to get excited. Do you get my point?
On the intel conference calls when a person asks in Q & A these questions, they reply back and skate around the making a commitment to any factual answer. Do you notice this too? When asked these questions to give more details they are like deer caught in the headlights. They don’t know what to say since they have no details to give and they know it.
All I can say is keep challenging these people who broadcast their intel calls and can not back up their statements with good old fashioned FACTS. Good, good, good and keep up the good work! All you fine dinarians out there deserve better information and should get it. The funny part is the information is out there for the taking and it is totally FREE.
Back to the real news…
This article below is all about the new lower denominations, the new metal coins, and the larger 50k and 100k notes (all of which is part of the permanent currency for currency reform). So what is it telling us?
I quote from the article – “as a change of the Iraqi dinar and the deletion of zeros is an important step on the road to monetary reform, and the reform of the currency management system through structured to control the flow and management of the cost of the money supply”.
So the project is still on their minds as more economists are debating more reasons to take “positive” action.
I quote again from the article – “the replacement will reduce the number of banknotes issued to the gain of 70 percent from the previous issue, and therefore the costs also will be reduced by more than this percentage because the old Deliberative new paper will be longer than the previous two reasons. First, the coins will reduce the burden to use it, and that large banknotes will be the speed to use less.”
We can see that they are telling us that 70 % of the three zero notes (previous issue) are already out of circulation as the new notes will replace them (gain back this 70 percent). So now we confirmed once again that they are using US dollars in their economy and it replaced 70% of the 3 zero notes already. Also they are telling us the new metal coins will be easier to use and the 50k and 100k new larger notes will speed up purchases since they will note have to carry and count out as much currency during their daily transactions.
ECONOMIST: REPLACE THE CURRENCY OF THE POSITIVE BENEFITS OF AAAKHLU
Imad emirate adopt the monetary authority decision in the process of replacing the currency on the approach to costs and benefits, as a change of the Iraqi dinar and the deletion of zeros is an important step on the road to monetary reform, and the reform of the currency management system through structured to control the flow and management of the cost of the money supply in a manner optimized using Model «Mosley» the most comprehensive, which does not stop at the borders of the costs and benefits but includes economic, social and political environment variables.
This is what started his speech by economist d. Abdul-Hussein Abdul Jalil Ghalibi »Sabah», pointing out: that the ideas can be raised in this area, from the process of deleting the zeros and replace currency terms would be too costly to the Iraqi economy and society, from the cost lawsuits and compensation, as well as cost support the economy during and after the the replacement process.
He stressed that no one denies that the process of changing the dinar require the costs to complete, but the discussion of these costs come from several directions, the first being that maintaining the dinar generates community ongoing costs in accounting fields and procedural counting, sorting, storage and others.
He said that these costs can be saved when you change currency and reduced to a minimum, and the second direction that is secreted by the costs is the issue of paper currency printed and punching the coin, and here it can be said: The huge number currently in the Iraqi economy, which amounts to 4 billion paper needs to be replaced operations damaged leaves and shredded and consumed him .
And that old deliberative banknote no more than ten years, but it is in conditions of heavy use, as is the case in Iraq, which hit the currency rate in circulation to money supply which about 90 percent of the old could be up to five years.
He Ghalibi So These costs are already unspent along with the replacement will reduce the number of banknotes issued to the gain of 70 percent from the previous issue, and therefore the costs also will be reduced by more than this percentage because the old Deliberative new paper will be longer than the previous two reasons. First, the coins will reduce the burden to use it, and that large banknotes will be the speed to use less.
He said that the second reason is that the quality of the paper better and more tolerant than the current paper, which was issued in 2003, the mission of the developments that have occurred in printing money the field.
He continued: The reference to the cost of compensation and claims there is nothing to do with the process of replacement as well as support the economy cost also nothing to do with this, as the government support of economic activity is affected by the process of changing the currency because what determines the amount of support and direction is the government in the financial policies.
He explained Ghalibi Changing the currency and the deletion of zeros does not reduce the source of paper, and with the relevance of this opinion and his health, what taken it is that the currency (the dinar) does not stop the replacement limits of the same categories, but will be Asaddarviat monetary larger so that the total number of papers will reach 1.18 billion paper instead of 4 billion paper, Mmaakhvd number of leaves significantly along with increase the range of categories used is not Top
ECONOMIST: CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AND DELETION OF ZEROS IS AN IMPORTANT STEP FOR MONETARY REFORM
The Monetary Authority adopted its resolution in the process of replacing the coin a Melasma and benefits as CHANGING THE IRAQI DINAR AND DELETE THE ZEROS IS AN IMPORTANT STEP ON THE ROAD TO MONETARY REFORM, and reform of the management system of currency through structured control flow and management of cost of money supply optimally using the form «Moseley» most extensive which does not stop at the borders of Melasma and benefits but also includes variables that economic, social and political environment.
He said economic expert Dr. Abdul Hussein Abdul Jalil majority according to» morning» that "ideas can arise in this area, out of process deletion of zeros and the Exchange would be costly to the economy and society, from commissioned lawsuits and damages, along with assigned support economy during and after the replacement operation.
No one denies that the process of change require costs for dinar, but discussion of these costs come from several directions, first, to maintain the dinar generates ongoing costs to society in the fields of accounting, procedure for counting, sorting, storage, etc.
"These can be provided at cost change currency and reduced to the minimum, the second trend which is secreted by the Melasma is issue printed banknotes and mint coins, and here it can be said that the large number currently in Iraq's economy, which has 4 billion paper needed replacements for damaged and torn sheets and consumed him.
The old banknote trading not more than ten years, but in the conditions of intensive use as it is in Iraq that the proportion of currency in circulation to offer criticism where 90 percent of the aged up to five years.
Therefore, he said that these costs are already spending that would reduce the number of replacement banknotes exported to total 70 percent of previous numbers, it also cut costs by more than this for the life of the new paper trading would be longer than the preceding two reasons first, coins will reduce the burden of use and large banknotes would quickly use less.
He said an overwhelming majority that the second reason is that the quality of the paper and better tolerated than current paper which was released in 2003 for the important developments in the field of printing money. And the reference to the assigned claims and lawsuits it has nothing to do with the replacement process as well as assigned in support of the economy also has nothing to do with it, as government support for economic activity affected by the currency change process that determines the amounts of support and trends within the Government fiscal policies.
He explained that the currency change and delete zeros does not reduce the paper source, and with this view and what is taken is that currency (the dinar) does not stop at the borders of the replacement of the same categories, but the categories will be released more cash so that the total number of sheets will reach 1.18 billion paper instead of 4 billion paper, thereby reducing the number of cards greatly increased how categories are used not only the top and bottom but the issuance of cash coins.
We all wondered what the CBI was doing in cutting the value of the Iraq dinar. So here now they are telling us.
Link to PART 2