(Thank you George for emailing this to Dinar Recaps.)
UU6801 – “ Changing the IQD Exchange Rate? ” by Mnt Goat
If you are reading this news letter today for the very first time I welcome you. But I highly recommend you continue to read it ongoing since my news letters connect together many pieces of this continued saga of the Iraqi dinar revaluation story. I bring no hype or rumors. If I am giving you my personal opinion I will tell you so.
My news letters are usually very long, so print it off, grab a cup of hot coffee, get on your reading glasses, and sit down on a cozy chair. Today’s news is very long once again and there is so much of it to review with you.
I personally do not think that ANY event is “holding up” the revaluation process but simply Iraq it not yet ready. When will they be ready? WHEN EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE AND THEY (IRAQ, UN and USA) FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THEIR SITUATION !
There is no boogieman behind a curtain that belongs to the cabal or secret society holding this RV back, some have told you. This is simply all foolish nonsense and must stop.
I read many forums and listen to many of these intel conference calls. Many of them simply make me laugh and sick to my stomach because these so called intel “gurus” will tell their audiences that they have been at this intel stuff for many years now. Some for five years or more. Really? - yet they have not yet learned how to gather information and verify it prior to disseminating it to thousands of listeners on their calls?
One thing that really disturbs me are items that these intel providers tell their listeners to watch for and that they can be signs of an RV. Really?
A good example is this constant, almost monthly, watch for the change in the U.N. Operational Rate Updates. Each month the same posts out in all these forums. Month after month. Each time the rates are updated late all the hype about proof of a pending RV. Really?
Enough already! I say to those vigilantly watching these rates - Get a life! You have nothing better to do?
Shame on you intel “gurus” and this privilege should be taken away from you. I have lost respect for most of you already for what you do to these innocent people just trying to learn and get truthful information about their investment.
Today is August 31st and still no RV or any hope of an RV window until at least mid September onward.
WOW ! The news was simply pouring out of Iraq over the weekend and into this new week, the first week of September.
I told you from mid August to mid September would be a very critical time for getting these reforms accomplished. I told you Abadi would make a final push to get them completed and it would be very sudden and unexpected by most.
I told you that “if” this reform process is successful, we would be in a great window to possibly see the currency reform project pick up momentum and maybe see a significant increase the value of the Iraqi dinar and the continuation of the “deletion of the 3 zeros” project.
I need to address something today that really bothers me. Again people reading only one or two of my posts and then in response they feel a need to come and dump on Mnt Goat. They seem content in putting words in my mouth and then arguing over them.
In fact if you were a faithful, long standing reader of mnt goat you would know better than to say that Mnt Goat believes there is a hold up. I only refer to a “hold up” in a very sarcastic manner for I hope to hit a nerve for many of these so called foolish intel “gurus” so they can see just how foolish and ignorant they are of what is really happening in Iraq. These are the same people that believe there is a hold up as each Monday morning comes around and there was no RV once again for the hundredth time. Go talk to them. Go explain the illogical intel they spread. They are the culprits not Mnt Goat !
So I have to say to My Ladies and Nova you guys are great bearers of intel and I have lots of respect for you guys. I have to thank you for all the efforts you make in helping sort out this revaluation saga. I learn something too every time I listen to your calls. I wish you would do more calls and more often.
But I am also disappointed in you because I feel you have been misinformed and lead. There is a total misunderstanding on the perspective of just what the Mnt Goat news letters is. Seems just like many people, you guys too read just a couple (or maybe just one) news letters and responded to a challenge. You do not know the background of the challenge or the precipice behind it.
So here is their 8/25 response to Mnt Goat challenge to explain “what then is the hold up” . (this does not mean Mnt Goat is saying there is a hold up but just asking if there was a hold – then tell me what it is since you keep telling us there is a hold up each Monday morning).
From My Ladies and Nova:
"SO MOUNTAIN GOAT AGAIN TO ANSWER YOUR CHALLENGE WITH OUT BECOMING ARGUMENTATIVE MY RESPONSE TO "WHAT IS THE HOLD UP" IS SIMPLY “WHAT HOLD UP?”
Remember that Mnt Goat, like My Ladies and Nova and others, does not believe there is ANY HOLDUP. So My Ladies your post was a moot point and I wish no hard feelings. NO HOLD UP and yes I totally agree with your analysis.
However this is exactly my point as I have been saying month after month now. Iraq simply is NOT YET READY TO MOVE TO THE BIG LEAGUE AND PLAY WITH THE BIG GUYS. Can someone say that the overall progress of this country in the areas of banking, financial, legal, security, etc could be the hold up? Yes – and it is a matter of semantics and exactly how you define “hold –up”. So let’s not get bogged down with semantics as we have much more to bring to the dinar community.
They desperately need an Investment Law, they need to combat the seriousness of the money laundering, they need a total secure environment where investors can come to Iraq and get legal disputes settled fairly. Did I mention that most insurance companies will not even do business in a terrorist zone (they have clauses in their contracts to void coverage) or without a legal system, and court system (to fairly settle disputes).
Do large corporations not use insurance as a mechanism for spreading their risk (losses)? Nova you should know about this- Yes, No? You are a banker. Would you feel comfortable going into Iraq and setting up a branch of your bank? Wouldn’t you be worried about your investment in land, building and other assets should a bomb explode or terrorists raid the vault? Would you feel comfortable loaning to Iraqi citizens knowing they could be blown up at anytime? How would they repay the loan?
Would you feel comfortable doing just the basic banking knowing there is no big brother watching over you and helping you spread your risks on these loans such as insurance does?
Folks this is all financial and banking stuff too. These issues I talk about, such as in the pending reforms, are the mechanisms to address these issues. Don’t you get it? HOW MANY TIMES AND HOW MANY WAYS MUST I EXPLAIN IT!
What the hell do you think I have been writing about over these last many months? Have you read over 100’s of my news letters?
So My Ladies and Nova (and others like you) may be addressing these reforms from another angle and that is excellent since we all need to know it from the banking and finance side too, but I assure you it’s all the same. I am glad we are now all on the same page and so let’s all relax and settle down (as my Hubby tells me).
Now let’s get back to our business of today and see what the news brings us. The main emphasis of today is on the talk about floating the dinar rate. Folks – this is HUGE news ! This is why I am dedicating almost this entire news letter today on this topic.
The CBI knows it must make some kind of move in the near future to go international. The pressure is enormous to do something. They want to sell international bonds and they need to fully implement these tariffs. They also need to implement an income tax. They need to bring in investments.
So again we are seeing many articles published on debates going on about changing the dinar exchange rate. We may not like what they say (the rate they give) but at least they are talking about it more now, more openly than ever before. Below is a recent set of 3 articles on this topic from this past week alone.
Last week we also read they were debating the pros and cons of FLOATING the dinar rate and the disparity of the Iraqi dinar to other neighboring countries. So what will they actually do? Iraq simply can not continue to do business and move forward without a realistic currency value.
We have to just keep reading the news to find out what they are going to do. No magic pills or “secret sources”. We know if they finally roll out to the international exchanges and then float the currency at a low beginning rate, it will not be long before we see some significant value increase.
We will all then be subject to the international market rate at the banks at this point and so we can then go exchange our dinar anytime we wish and at any rate. No need for conference calls, making bank appointments, long lines, 20 minutes sessions with the bankers, etc. This is all nonsense and hype told to you over and over again that most of you believe it to be true.
Does this sound so contrary to all the BS you have been hearing about FEAR mongering at the banks including banking exchange procedure packages only given to certain people, or how about busses showing up at the bank to exchange, oh and 1 800# to call to make appointments (yes this is a good one…ha ha ha).
This I tell you is all nothing but FEAR mongering and those that have been perpetrating this nonsense on you should be asked to end it by the authorities. These so called intel “gurus” have an agenda and you can see it all playing out now in the long run as so many of you fine and honest dinarians have lost so much money on reserves orders already that will never be filled. I have repeatedly warned you to stay away from them and get off their intel calls.
This is my personal theory on what the CBI is ultimately is going to do – I believe they know they must float the value of the IQD and gradually let it rise. They will NOT ATTEMPT to push out a very high rate right (i.e. $3.91) initially due to the money laundering (the current CBI governor has not controlled) and the terrorists activities. The CBI does talk about starting the project to delete the zeros sometime in very early 2016. What will they ultimately do? Again my personal belief is strong that Abadi is going to clean up the CBI too and Dr Shabibi will be back as the governor of the CBI to continue his original plan as they are almost now back on track.
(please don’t anyone argue with me that Dr Shabibi is back as the seated governor of the CBI. Since I know better so instead of arguing with me for a change just listen to me. Dr Shabibi is simply now on a consultant basis and most of his advice is being ignored by the currency proxy governor. It is very frustrating for him since we watches on the side lines. This is why they are in such a mess). Remember who placed this current proxy governor in the office….enough said…more house cleaning in the CBI is coming…)
The question is - from what rate will be the starting point if they change their mind and decide to do it now?
Do they first make a very significant leap like to maybe 90 cents or $1.14 as some and I too believe they will do OR do they come out very low (1059) and account for inflation and let it slowly break into the market?
Also remember in the recent articles (article below about the bond sale). It is ONLY national (in country) bonds for now so do not expect an RV for these bonds. They are selling at 10.6 dinars per USD penny. WOW! Would you buy them without an international rate to back them up to give you more future earnings? Why would you? They are telling us the are extending the bond drive for another month. Why? Read my lips – BECAUSE ITS ANOTHER FAILURE WITHOUT THE RV FIRST!
I also want to address an article I included about them talking about the 50k and 100k notes once again. You know the ones they are holding off until the RV since they know from economic experts it will cause more hyper-inflation. Dr Shabibi is telling them to hold off until they significantly increase the value and roll out international platforms. Will they listen?
Many economists have stated the pros and cons of this move now and most agreed that they would cause higher inflation rates in Iraq. But the article below states new class of categories (50 and 100) thousand, indicating that these groups are designed to facilitate the process of carrying currency among citizens. It seems the CBI may distribute these now anyhow contrary to advice by economists because they see other advantages. Will the advice of DR Shabibi support this attitude? I do not think he would agree.
Abdul Khaliq stressed that in the article below that to delete the value of the zeros and the replacement of the currency at this time could not successful because the environment is not ripe for it, stressing that this process needs a stable security environment as well as providing sophisticated technology and Komrat and devices to destroy the old currency and devices supervisory good (meaning honest people to do the work).
There you have it once again ! Their words not mine. No Hype, no Rumors, just facts.
So what does this all mean? Why did I bring it to you today?
What I am about to tell you is the most important part of the first 4 pages of this new letter today.
Read it carefully.
We are witnessing bad practices and confusion within the CBI. Plain and simple, We can see it so obviously in these articles. The acting proxy governor, Alaq, is inexperienced and not knowledgeable as to what action to take during this economic crisis. He is not proactive and can not make policies to combat issues prior to them becoming very severe. We will not see any progress in the direction of the currency reform until he is gone and they can get a suitable experienced person replacement to lead the CBI. Will Dr Shabibi be that person. Many believe (including myself) that he will return. Remember Dr Shabibi is still the “official” acting governor of the CBI just not allowed to sit and manage the CBI currently.
Link to PART 2 of 3