IRAQ CONSIDERS THE POSSIBILITIES AND NEGITIVE EFFECT OF RAISING THE EXCHANGE RATE TO 1500 DINAR TO 1 USD.
Ali Mohsen Keywords
Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq
The financial crisis currently faced by Iraq, which can be extended to the next few years will inevitably require a serious and profound measures to spare the country a real risk has ridden the economic, social, security and services by circumstances, if it is not addressed articulated plans and successful solutions. The development of solutions and plans should not stems from one fact or one factor is the low price of oil source, because starting from that alone does not get us to the processors and attractive solutions touches the essence of the problem and the challenges of the immediate or future.
The state budget has been exporting large deficit even with revenue rising significantly (depending on the oil price rise), and spending, who met those revenues did not contribute to the development of the productive base and the infrastructure and services in proportion to the growing resources, but he was spending a reason to commit the state high fixed costs can not dislodge or reduced, especially in the massive recruitment is the product, and in the financing of self-financing bodies and public sector companies.
In the creation of entities and new ministries despite the expansion of the formations provinces based on the principle of administrative decentralization, accompanied by (easy flux of resources) neglect of non-oil revenues from fees and wages tax and other, and the acquisition of corrupt them (for example, pays the merchant importing container (Alkuinter) 4 Thousands of loyal Customs dollars (private sector), pays the Savior equivalent to a thousand dollars in fees for customs authority and the rest (3) thousand dollars obsessed by it and a group of staff in the customs of colluding with them to change, adapt and documentation of goods imported).
Thus, if we want to hold your breath in the hollow in the joints of the State in my income and expenditure, we will find serious and destructive phenomena miss out on the country's chances of development and growth and optimal use of resources.
On the basis of these facts should not be thinking about the easy solutions that have the country and citizens victim imbalances and deficiencies and poor management, use and lack of planning, oversight and accountability, and tinkering with all that or cover it up again By do not address the root of the problem.
You must be launched solutions to diagnose phenomena and glitches in the expenses and revenues of the state, which if not addressed by the real, the oil resources no matter how grown up you will be unable to achieve a balance and achieve economic and development goals of the public budget, and continues the drain of resources trends do not check real accumulation in expansion of economic activity and the reduction of unemployment and social welfare and human development, and continues to expand into new obligations on the State serve as the basis and foundation for real crises when oil revenues decline.
The proposal to reduce the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, which some posed today as a means to cover the deficit in the state budget (by paying a higher value of the dollar, which buys the Central Bank of the Ministry of Finance and thus sell the dollar at a higher price in the market - the proposed 1500 dinars), this proposal is undoubtedly a proposal followed by some countries for objective goals, in most cases, it is to encourage the country's exports where they become worth less in foreign currency shall be priced at a global competitor.
In the case of Iraq is the proposed solution easy and direct increases the amount of the dinar, which you get the Ministry of Finance against the dollar, but a solution from our point of view holds many cons on the one hand, on the other hand does not help to address the root of the problem chronic, but not suited structural imbalances, and Aicod to re-spending and government revenue structure in the macroeconomic framework, but would be a way to cover the reality with all its anomalies and serious imbalances, so we have exhausted all means of reform first, in order to keep spending paths and revenue on the basis of incorrect, before to resort to other solutions.
In any case, the proposed reduction rate of the dinar against the dollar mired with many of the observations and cons can highlight the most important as follows:
a. The reduction in the exchange rate of local currency, which is taken by States usually associated with the availability of the following (Policy Terms, conditions is available in the case of Iraq):
A-requires a flexibility in demand for imports, which means that the increase in the exchange rate for foreign currency will lead to reduced demand for imports (due to the high price tag), and this flexibility is available to the absence of national production base, leading to a negative result , where higher amounts spent in national currency on imported goods and thus increase the demand for foreign currency, leading to further deterioration in the balance of payments.
(b) that there is a significant volume of national exports, so that the resulting decline in national commodity prices (including the equivalent in foreign currency) intended for export due to the reduction of the national currency exchange rate, an increase in exports, and this is verified in Iraq, where almost the country does not make something, not because of price competition, but because of the lack of diverse production base in key sectors such as agriculture, industry, energy ... etc., where form Industry and Agriculture proportions in low GDP components (agriculture 4.5%, industry 1.83%).
(c) reducing the lead of the national currency exchange rate to reduce production costs, including wages are based, and this is not available or possible in the circumstances of the country political, social and security.
2. Unlike the report by some of the gentlemen of the proposed terms of the amount can be calculated provided the balance of the exchange rate difference, which was appreciated by 15 trillion dinars, the correct account in the light of the actual amount of dollars purchased by the central bank and Ministry of Finance (excluding repayments Financial commitments in dollars, such as oil, electricity, defense, foreign and reimbursements assuming projects that all other ministries and projects for Initiating an obligation to the dollar with that assumption is unrealistic), the correct amount can be made available for this year to exceed 5 trillion dinars and next year will be up to 10 trillion dinars in the best the possibilities, and this is the difference - who will pay the price of Iraqi citizens - can be supplied from other alternatives and those alternatives not only provide large sums of money, but check economic and financial task purposes in the short and long term.
On the other hand, the fulfillment of financial obligations to the oil companies will contribute to the increase in revenues, where the addition of every 100 thousand barrels of oil extracted and the source increases revenue by about $ 2 billion (assuming the price of a barrel to $ 50). There is considerable scope for increasing oil production as well as gas if what has financial obligations file management in favor of the companies producing oil and gas.
3. The proposal put two prices for the disbursement of the dinar, one low and one high allocated to cover essential needs (in order not to influence the citizen's task and sectors), such as food and medicine supplies Industry, agriculture and others, the proposal impractical and creates chaos and exploitation and corruption, where the reality of ports and customs authorities can not be to extend the application of a sound proposal, and we have experiences in this field, in which the instructions and controls turned into a means of blackmail and corruption and pour all in the interest of the corrupt lead to operations manipulation and rigging wide .
4-The lifting of the dollar exchange rate to 1,500 dinars (as proposed) means reduced purchasing power of citizens by 30%, in addition to cases of exploitation and loss of control over the market, which adds another increase, and this increase in prices is too high under the current circumstances where the limited income of the vast proportion of citizens in addition to unemployment and high poverty rates, as well as Cairo conditions experienced by millions of displaced people living humane difficult circumstances and resources barely sufficient to feed life and will be the beneficiary layer of traders and speculators.
5. The damage to raise the exchange rate and thus prices the public pays the price citizens with low-income equally borne by those with high incomes, which increases the phenomenon of large class differences, in the absence of tax policy reduce those differences, and make changes in the price structure and others are in favor of that layer.
The absence of the function of tax policy in the redistribution of income through taxation, according to real incomes to be re-distributed to citizens with limited income and poor through various means of support and services, this absence deepens the risk of lowering the exchange rate of the dinar.
6. The lifting of the exchange rate of the dollar by 30% mean reduction of assets and the value of investments Foreign such proportion that have been paid in dinars purchased in dollars at the time, but even the Iraqi business sector is calculated found and investments denominated in dollars (for psychological reasons, historical and economic), which generates serious repercussions of concern and hedge fears.
extends the impact to the level of citizens who are used to assess their assets and their properties and their property on the basis of the dollar, leading to raise Akiemha the national currency, and holds a clientele for it to rise, such as property buyers for residential or commercial purposes.
7. The lifting of exchange rate policy when they follow to serve as a tax on Local-income as in the proposed increase, must be accompanied by a re-look at the direct and indirect taxes toward mitigate or reduce them, it is not logical to impose taxes along with the increase in the exchange rate as it means a reduction of per capita income or purchasing power from both sides, and it should be noted here that the government decided to apply the law tariff starting from 08/01/2015 in addition to increasing the tax on employees' salaries and imposing a new tax on their allowances, which means carrying the majority of citizens (who are employees) a double financial burden not commensurate with the status of living of the citizens, in addition to government guidelines apply the electricity tariff and the gradual lifting fuel subsidies and other measures.
8. The gradient in the direction of fiscal and monetary decisions is an important and necessary but not to take this into account and take a big surprise decisions at high rates creates a negative impact on economic activity and the business environment.
The devaluation of the exchange rate of the dinar by 30% - as proposed - is a very high percentage confuse all economic conditions in all sectors.
The central bank has increased this year, the dollar exchange rate, which buys of Finance from 1166 to 1180 dinars, and can continue to amendment depending on the circumstances at rates not confuse the situation.
We believe that the possible solutions to address the financial challenges faced by Iraq are in the following frames (without going into the details of each proposal): -
1. Comprehensive reform of the tax authorities, and that can save billions of dollars a year, with the assignment of customs collections in all ports to international companies specialized in investment. Frame
2. Stimulate and activate tools and market domestic debt, through the issuance of bonds and traded in the market, which is a source basis for funding in most countries of the world, given that the central bank proposed to the government and the national bond issue worth 5 trillion dinars and local bonds, dollar futures against the dinar worth $ 5 billion, The government agreed on it has been assigned versions Bank manages on behalf of the government and will soon in the market.
3. A comprehensive survey of real estate State (land and buildings), leased and vacant Akiemha and revenues from rental or leasing or other, to study them and take appropriate action on the lease, sell or invest, to maximize possible resources of exploited economically and efficiently.
4. Ending the financing of the state budget for the bodies self-funded (according to the laws) within a period not exceeding 5 years, any funding or support rate reduced by 20% annually until the departure of its funding or grants her from the general budget, note that the current annual allocations to those bodies and agencies amounting to trillions (JD).
5. Activation of what is stated in the General Budget Law for the year 2015, of allowing the government deferred payment projects worth $ 5 billion, to be strategic projects (limited in number and wide service) and managed a higher committee and a high degree of transparency.
6. The application of tariff electricity consumption, taking into account the gradient in wages to focus on high consumption and to develop suitable for the consumption of the poor and middle-class wages, knowing that all accounts suggest the possibility of achieving an amount of $ 6 billion a year if they were those tariff application.
7. Reconsideration of support policies (such as ration card, fuel ...) so that went to the poor and limited income groups.
8. Activating the strategic promotion of the private sector which was approved by the government and keep track of their content carefully and diligently a task and accurate strategy and placed center after studies and discussions between all the parties of the government and the private sector and specialists.
9. Identify a number of major investment projects per year (for example, 10 projects), presented to the investment with a package of incentives and privileges and a sufficient amount of guarantees, and assume a higher committee formed by the Council of Ministers to identify and promote these projects and supervise the stages of delivery and provide all means of support to them.
10. The resolution of public sector companies file a private money-losing ones, which have undergone studies and proposals and plans of years ago and it has become very necessary to the completion of self-determination, taking into account not damage the rhythm of the workers.
11. Benefit fast loans provided by the CBI industrial, agricultural and real estate sector, which amounts to 5 trillion dinars, where -With Alosv- not fired yet for the government's delay in the necessary instructions to launch determinants mode, note that the central bank also allocated $1 trillion dinars to finance projects Small private banks through lending.
12. The need to resolve lagging government projects that have been paying large sums them without complete file, much of which has been included for years, and we see the need for the Council of Ministers to form a committee to review the situation of these projects and ways to accomplish or re amounts, as we see it is necessary to be not insert delete or replace projects only through submission to the Council of Ministers, and be the first choice for the implementation of investment by the private sector first.
13. Seek to get support and help countries that share Iraq in its attitude towards terrorism by moving them to finance Iraq's reconstruction fund, and is a national team of the three presidencies liaise with these countries and encourage them to contribute to the mitigation of the destruction and devastation caused by terrorism.
14. Development of a medium-term plan, to restructure the government and higher authorities and local administrations, thus alleviating the administrative sag and reduces costs and increases the efficiency and productivity, and poses for the national team purpose of professionals as well as academics and international consulting firms, that studies and proposals are not subject to political considerations or interests contradict and goals of that plan.
15. Reconsider system of supervision and inspection and integrity in the light of the experience of the past years, and to identify strengths and weaknesses in their work and ways to improve their roles, leading to a real and effective and efficient for the phenomena of corruption fight.
Here, we refer to we have given some time ago to the Cabinet a proposal to abolish offices of inspectors general, and replace it with one office be at the national level, and represents the Council of Ministers arm in control and is associated with the Prime Minister, the executive power tool to be in control of themselves, and without subjecting it to the impacts and pressures of the ministries and departments which shall control, as we suggested characterization or tasks for the work of that office selected aspects of mission and essential without immersion in the details or the tasks that are the responsibility of the internal or external control devices.
BONDS TO SALES AT 1095 DINAR TO 1 USD
The central bank announced the extension of the bond sale for the benefit of the Ministry of Finance one month
The central bank announced on Sunday, to extend the period for the bond sale for the benefit of the Ministry of Finance and one month, while explained that it will sell bonds in Iraqi dinars at a price of 1095 dinars per dollar. The bank said in a statement briefed "Iraq law," a copy of it, "will be extended sales in nominal bond futures delivery in the currency of the US dollar on behalf of the Ministry of Finance to be one of the first of next September and up to 30 of the same month," noting that "Asdarih will be four categories ( 2,500 to 10,000 and 50,000 and 100,000) US dollars, and the total amount of two billion dollars. " The bank said it "will sell the bonds at a price of Iraqi dinars 1095 dinars per dollar and payable by the Ministry of Finance on February 28, 2017 to be paid in dollars maturity."
The Central Bank of Iraq became independent under the law issued on the sixth of March 2004, as an independent body, which is responsible for maintaining price stability and the implementation of monetary policy, including exchange rate policies are being daily for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies sessions except public holidays which stops the Bank for these auctions.
IRAQI DINAR COMPETE ARAB CURRENCIES IN THE EXCHANGE RATE
Basil Abbas Khudair
Tuesday, August 25 0.2015
After the application of monetary policy to maintain the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar prices, which began since 2004, and so today and led by the Central Bank of Iraq, and defended by experts International Sinan Shabib (article from the post of Governor of the Bank) and the appearance of Mohammed Saleh (Economic Adviser currently the Council of Ministers), and cost Iraq more than $ 300 billion, has become the Iraqi currency (the dinar) Currency compete in many countries, including the Lebanese pound and the Somali shilling and condoms Mauritanian lunar franc (Comoros) and the Yemeni rial, because the exchange rate against the dollar, we have the best of these currencies, the Iraqi Vdinar equivalent to $ 0.0009 while the equivalent lira in Lebanon (for example) .00066, so the US dollar equivalent of 1146 dinars in Iraq (except for commission of the Central Bank) In Lebanon, the US dollar equivalent of 1,500 pounds, and because
Lebanon is a country in non-oil is not the right comparison between the two, it is justice that compare the Iraq oil-producing Arab countries regarding exchange rates, In Kuwait, the equivalent of the Kuwaiti dinar to $ 3.42 (Kuwaiti dinar equivalent of nearly 5,000 Iraqi dinars) as equivalent to the Bahraini dinar to $ 2.66 in the Sultanate of Oman equivalent riyal to $ 2.6, while in Jordan, the dinar equivalent of $ 1.41, and in the Libya Vdinar have the equivalent of $ 0.73.
Might ask anybody, how could Kuwait occupied by the former regime and lost everything to restore prestige to the dinar (who was in a competitive race with the Iraqi dinar so that overcomes one over the other little difference to the very beginning of the eighties of the last century), and how Jordan was able to maintain fixed exchange rates Several years ago, a sink indebtedness and the aid-dependent and does not involve the fortunes of the oil it imports crude oil from Iraq, although it adjoins (Israel) have fought many wars and has a constant threat because of unwanted neighbor?
And how withstood the Libyan dinar after the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime and the proliferation of militias and tribal divisions? And although we have the part of the answers to these and other questions, we Snhjb our answers because they may pose views on the subject, it is needed is not a number of opinions, but a detailed and clear facts, facts and numbers and names answers, a subject must Taatkvlh neutral parties and should preferably be international in order to be referred to eliminate Iraqi when you confirm the existence of suspicions of corruption, subject of such importance should be subject to review and investigation and audit and accountability and that does not pass unnoticed, because it relates to the wealth of Iraq during more than 12 years and some are wasted and ran away without the benefit of the country and reflected on sustainable development but poorly too.
It goes from our compatriots to any country in the world impressed due to witnessing the progress and services, while we Nckoa all of the deficiencies and shortcomings in most aspects, despite the annual Mdjulatna of oil revenues alone may draw five times or more of balancing those countries, oddly enough The demonstrations, which the country is currently witnessing sometimes focus on topics very much simpler than the economic problems experienced by Iraq,
The country is on the verge of a real setbacks when the price of a barrel of oil up to $ 30 or less, because the state will be insolvent in its affairs management may be forced to enter the enormous indebtedness guaranteed Oil or national sovereignty, and can pass such topics easily as long as the salaries paid Bmeidha or after a delay for a limited number of days, and still wound is bleeding in the area of selling the dollar in the Iraqi Central Bank auction, Valambiet up to $ 250 million a day and sales of oil does not exceed 4 million barrels per day with an average price of 40 dollars per barrel, which means that daily oil revenues are less than sales, and what baffles if oil revenues up to $ 160 million a day, so how can the auction sells $ 250 million a day and where to go these sales? It's a complicated question is asked constantly convincing answer but did not get it after the citizen.
Despite the tremendous sales of the dollar (former and current), which estimated value of the current chairman of the Finance Committee in the Parliament, Dr. Ahmad Chalabi of more than $ 300 billion, the real exchange rate of the citizen is the price of 1230 dinars per dollar, which means that efforts to stabilize the exchange rate policy in order not to hurt citizen of the volatility of exchange rates is real, Valtzbzb brought the price to 1480 dinars per dollar did not fall into what it is until after the Federal Court approval to repeal the Council of Ministers of the amendments to the House of Representatives on some budget 2015 materials including setting the exchange no more than $ 75 million a day , also suggesting that the absence of any port can citizen on the dollar gets it at the price of the central bank when his desire or having to travel outside of Iraq for the purpose of (the Hajj, Umrah, treatment, tourism, etc.), and are resorting to banking that choose Offices exchange rates outside the mainstream at the central bank prices, it was really strange to think that the Iraqi Central Bank is a tool to manage the money and the economy, even though he was on monetary policy because the economic and financial policies must be developed and managed stakeholders out, as that of unjust watching on bank sales Central without creating a convenient way for the delivery of the dollar to the citizen, because it is the legitimate right and not a share of (thieves).
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