(Thank you George for sending this to Dinar Recaps.)
UU4402 – “A Glimmer of Hope? 4/20” by Mnt Goat
Last week was a very awesome week for information and articles out of Iraq. Too much to place it all in my last news letter from Saturday dated 4/18 and so I decided to continue the news today.
Meinen Hubby told me I sounded real gloomy and negative in my last news letter. Sorry for all the bad news as most of you are used to being pumped up for each weekend and then get depressed on Monday when nothing happens. My Hubby made a joke of it all.
He said – it like this. Monday is “disappointment Monday”, Wednesday is “prime them for Friday Wednesday” and Friday is “pump’m up Friday for the weekend RV”.
So you can imagine the laughs and fun we have with this stuff at home. It is hilarious! What will we do to joke around when this is all over?
Today is Monday April 20th. Another week has passed and yes there is still no Iraq currency RV.
But to get more serious and all fairness now I want to tell you another side to the RV saga too and so this news letter can be not so gloomy and much more optimistic. This news today is just as important as the news I told you on 4/18 (LINK) so pay attention please.
Many have responded to my last news letter, still clinging on to a glimmer of hope that the RV would have happened over the weekend. This is of course insanity (defined: doing the same thing over and over again knowing the end result and getting the same result but expecting change). Kind of like banging your head against the wall. It keeps hurting but you keep doing it anyway.
They tell me – “no one knows the date or rate”. They use these types of lovely statements to justify in their minds that the RV could in fact happen in the days ahead. Since no one knows the date they feel it could possible happen any one of the weekends as they are being led to believe. Because what they are really saying is Mnt Goat (and others attempting to end this madness) does not know what she or they are talking about.
Of course it will happen. Some do in fact know the rate. It could be adjusted by pennies but this part we have pretty well figured out and also can see the bank screens. As far as the date - this also is not so much of a puzzle anymore either. Just pay attention to the news and you too can figure it out, or at least come very close. But first you must take off your “RV Glasses” and get realistic. This is what is causing confusion. This every day, every weekend stuff is driving everyone crazy. It all a matter of interpretation of the news, bad interpretation!
Many tend to do this and overlook the most obvious information telling them that it is in fact not going to happen right now. I try to bring you this information. I take off my “RV Glasses” and just try to bring you realistic and sensible information.
Right now there is much more information telling us that it will be delayed (probably till June timeframe) do to SECURITY reasons then of any other news out there. Even in June we may still have to wait a bit longer (who knows) but let’s get to June first. On the other hand just like we may have to wait past June, events in Iraq could suddenly turn around and we might see the RV earlier. But I doubt it !
So why do some keep telling us everyone is on high alert? How could they stay on :high alert” much longer?
To these statements I have to tell do not make much sense. First of all the banks are on high alert looking and watching for terrorist activities such as counterfeit currency and electronic warfare. This is why the high alert. It not always about the RV!
Why we keep hearing about a “window of opportunity to RV” is because it is just that – a window of opportunity and nothing more. Each weekend they (the CBI, UST and IMF) have a meeting and determine what would be the best possible timeframe to RV is they could in the coming week. This is all this is. They have been doing this since late 2013 when they first began these early exchanges for the elite behind out backs. Now that the system was ready (all kinks were tested and resolved) they could begin the exchanges. This is of course not good for us since now that these people have exchanged they really do not care about us and there is no pressure from them to take care of the us. Getting Iraq to RV or not is a matter of course for them now since no personal gain is at stake.
In order to demonstrate this glimmer of hope of an RV sooner than later (the later due to this security situations in Iraq), let us go right to the source of who will initiate this RV sooner than later and see if we can make any sense of it all.
Here is what we know for facts concerning events with the CBI -
1) FACT: Dr Sinan Al-Shabibi tried to RV only one time and it was back in 2012 and was abruptly stopped by Maliki.
2) FACT: Maliki made a run for the reserves of the CBI in late 2013 and was stopped by Shabibi
3) FACT: in late 2013 early 2014, Maliki then came up with a plot to get rid of Shabibi and anyone in the CBI who could potentially interfere with his plot to steal the funds out of the CBI. Maliki then tried to pacify parliament and the finance committee and told them he approved of an RV in early 2014. This was the REAL beginning of the economic crisis for Iraq. The drop in oil prices only increased the impact. He of course refused to RV when the time came (as he almost never carried through on his promises).
You should browse through the articles during this timeframe to get a real sense of the crisis then that was brewing ahead. Later in 2014m when oil prices dropped, we see the ugly head of the crisis being manifested.
4) FACT: the plot to steal funds from the CBI did not work. Why?
a) Shabibi fled to Switz on the advice of the finance leader who told him Maliki was coming for him next;
b) the reserves in the CBI are not kept in Iraq, as Maliki thought, Shabibi was smart enough to prepare for a worst case scenario and transferred the majority of the funds to offshore Swiss accounts months prior to the episode in late 2013. Maliki did manage to get a hold of billions but did not empty the reserves.
5) FACT: remember Shabibi is not the bad guy here. Many jumped on the bandwagon to crucify him and believed the Maliki news media in that Shabibi was a criminal. They thought this would get us the RV? Like Shbibi was the hold up? Like this is why Maliki wanted to run the CBI – to get the RV?
Simply ridiculous ! .
Here is a link to Shabibi ‘s background:
6) FACT: So now that Maliki was gone from the executive prosition, Shabibi was soon exonerated from any wrong doing from the criminal accusations of 2013
7) FACT: Weeks ago Shabibi was asked to return to Iraq and the CBI
8) FACT: Only 11 days ago (and once again this weekend) we read articles where Shabibi being referenced as head of the CBI. They call him the head of the CBI or governor in these articles
9) FACT: So why no formal announcement of Dr. Shabs coming back?
Iraq does not want to air their dirty laundry, instead they want to pretend that the Maliki episode never happened. Those that don't know any better would not be any wiser.
I don’t believe they will ever make a formal announcement since legally Shabibi was never formally/legally stripped of his position as the governor of the CBI. So technically and legally he never left the position. But we know he had to flee in exile to Switzerland for his life. Does this make sense?
10) FACT: The down turn in oil prices would have had minimum impact on the Iraq 2014 budget if Shabibi was managing the CBI all along. I mean having a direct hand to direct it and not just giving advice from offshore.
Shabibi would have prevented the crisis. As I said above the financial crisis did not just happen overnight or due to oil prices dropping.. The crisis is a culmination of events related to the 8 years of constant corruption and malicious, wasteful spending by the Maliki administration. Over 600+ billion dollars are now found missing. The number seems to climb in each article we read about this.
This amount of money can more than cover the budget deficit gap that Iraq is now experiencing. So you see once again Iraq is trying to hide its dirty laundry by using OIL PRICES as the culprit and not putting the blame where it really belongs.
Some politicians however are now coming forward with the corruption charges and simply refused to sweep it under the rug. There should be no doubt in any ones mind on this matter as to why Iraq is experiencing this financial crisis. I think the GOI knows this now and desperately needs Shabibi back to clean up the mess (the mess left behind by the Maliki administration).
11) FACT: Shabibi refused to come back to Iraq unless he could be provided full security for his personal protection.. This was provided in the deal for him to return. He is not physically back in Iraq, his country.
12) FACT: The 2014 budget law limits the currency auctions to only a small percentage of former amounts. Why did they do this?
13) FACT: Iraq does not need the currency auctions to raise this capital for the cash flow (liquidity) issue they keep complaining about. What they need to do is to RV their currency and go international.
Even in the last interview with the finance minister of Iraq and Shabibi (with the IMF), it was said that in fact Iraq has ample resources and is by no means bankrupt. They were preparing the public to hear a refusal by the IMF on their request for some 700 million in funds. As investors, we of course do not want the IMF to loan them the money. This will only delay Iraq from the RV that much longer.
Now having said all this what comes next?
Since Shabibi made a deal with the head of the finance minister of Iraq for coming back and the deal contained these conditions:
1) his personal safety,
2) a free hand to manage the reserves,
3) a free hand to do what he needs to do to protect and stabilize the value of the Iraqi dinar,
(if it means the RV than he will go forward)
4) no more interference from the GOI
So now knowing all this. What do you think Dr Sinan Al-Shabibi is planning to do next?
PS- if I have misstated any FACTS in this news letter please correct me and provide evidence not conjecture or your opinion.
Peace and Luv To Ya All,