The hold up of 2 days (since 8/4) happened in a decision to allow the judiciary of the Supreme Federal Court to have time to review and conduct a hearing in the matter of reviewing the constitution and determining which bloc in the majority bloc in the election.
This bloc will then have the mandate for the nomination of a candidate for prime minister and form a new government.
This contention has been at the very heart of the all the problems so far with this election process since in having this they can move forward swiftly and seat the new prime minister and thus Maliki will be legally done, cooked. They still might have to still forcefully take him out though at the end but first his amnesty must be lifted.
Incidentally this amnesty law, for your information, was something to assist would be politicians to come back into the new government and help run it post war. The amnesty was intended for crimes committed during the war and not during the new government.
This too is going to change in the future as politicians will no longer be granted amnesty for future crimes committed while in the GOI. This law has been part of the problem too in not being able to stop Maliki in the past.
Also if you remember back in the spring of 2012 when Talibani wanted a no-confidence vote on Maliki. Once again the USA did not trust the honest politicians in what they were saying about their prime minister. The USA decided not to support the efforts of president Talibani in his decision. So they backed off. Huge mistake!
They continued to use the threat of a no-confidence vote on Maliki everytime he needed a spanking but he knew their game and so ignored them. As long as he has support of the USA he knew he was untouchable. Today that support is gone.
All parties did agreed to the court hearing in that this would be the final decision and they would adhere to it. I believe that if they have this hearing today, they might conduct the vote tomorrow and simply add it to the agenda.
Where does this put us for the RV?
Another parliament meeting is called for 8/7 Thursday, the day before the formal constitutional deadline for naming the PM expires on Friday 8/6. Can they extend it? yes they can extend it with notification to the judiciary. I am hearing there is a one week extension under discussion but nothing final. Can they afford to extend this for yet another week considering the militants?
If all goes well and the announcements are made and the seating of the new Prime minister happens tomorrow 8/7 we will be in an excellent window to see the RV early next week.
They may use this weekend to send all the updated rates and files downstream and do the final preparations. We could be at the banks next week.
Note – I did not say we would have the RV. No one knows for sure the date. I am saying our best window of opportunity. So please make sure you quote me correctly.
On the other hand, if things continue to linger on past this week we will be in a totally different situation since the militants are advancing and becoming increasingly more dire each day the support from the USA is postponed. The USA is logistically supporting the Pershmerga in the hope they can contain the ISIS until the US calvary comes to the rescue….lol….
Maliki is playing a poker game with the USA. Who will cave in first? So you see this is his incentive to keep the election process stalled and from completing. The longer he stalls it the more ground the militants can take and the more likely he thinks the USA will cave in and give support, regardless of who is running the government.
Of course he will still be in power under the interim/temporary government. The crackdown would then begin on his part. This would then send a signal to the world that the USA is once again supporting Maliki, which the USA definitely does not want to do.
The USA on the other hand is gambling on the fact that the Iraq leadership can quickly work out the new government and get it completed on time. It is all a gamble and in the meantime innocent lives and property is being destroyed.
So today’s news is not very good news but it could be depending if the glass is half full or half empty.
What do you think?
Once again for Iraq they are at that junction when the time to negotiate has almost but expired. They must now decide who this new prime minister will be. They can no longer hold up their economy and the world. They are the base currency for the GCR and so much is riding on getting this right.
The clock ticks. As we know Friday 8/8 is the official constitutional deadline to seat the new prime minister. Is this the end of the line for the USA? Do they have a plan B if the new government stalls any longer? Certainly Iraq is now in a crisis already. Can they wait any longer to give full military support against the militants? Surely they will not allow this country to become a haven for terrorists.
We must remember too who let the ISIS group into Iraq. Who continues to support this group contrary to what is being reported by the Maliki run news media. Who controlled the military at that time? Who was supposed to be protecting the Iraq boarders? Who tried to use the situation to his benefit for re-election and continues to pursue this thinking?
There is really only one person to blame for all this mess and for the delay in seating this new government. We know who this person is.
It is the OUTGOING prime minister Nori Al-Maliki.
Like I said in many previous news letters, once the USA begins operations in Iraq against the militants it will be swift and quick. The groundwork has already been laid out.
Today I intentionally left out some details in my explanation of the situation in Iraq. I did this to give you a simple overview of what is happening. I could have easily wrote you a 20-30 page news letter today with much more detail. I wanted to make it short and brief.
I know many complain about my news letters being too long but it is very difficult not to understand the background of events leading up to the current situation. So either you want to know the truth or you simply want a date and a rate or maybe you simply don’t care?
Which is it?
If I give you a tentative date and a rate and it does not happen then you complain and bash me for it not happening and you want to know why it did not happen. So now I am telling you both. So be happy and relax.
Anything could happen in this coming week. It is a very, very dynamic situation. There is a high possibility too this may take many more months to resolve if we don’t see some positive news from tomorrows session in parliament or by this weekend. Each passing day the militant situation worsens.
I do strongly believe Iraq is now at a crossroad. We know which way they will eventually go but will it be months to get there or can they pull this off in the coming days or weeks?
Do not think for one second the USA government does not want this RV too… like yesterday but there would be severe ramifications in giving the current prime minister what he wants….more money to fund his terrorism.
Maliki has already tried every trick in the book to get more money. Remember he declared an in country RV and loaded the Qi cards up with the new rate. Then months later he declared a Reinstatement. Still none of these tactics worked to get him his international RV, this he desires most.
He will never get it. The next prime minister replacing him will get all the glory and fan fair of finally bringing their currency online again with a full valued international rate. This I am certain.
I want to emphasize once again this final announcement of the IQD going international will not happen until the USA feels the Iraq government is stable, non-sectarian and is a functional government.