Bomonkey: The best example of the RV is Seed …For a seed to achieve its greatest expression. It must come completely undone. All laws passed. The shell cracks …its inside comes out and everything changes. For the Iraq and all over the world. To someone that does not understand growth. It would look like complete destruction. Smile its coming…. RV
Derosegirl: Martha said Rial has to come out by the 18th that's Friday! I think they will put it in the first basket if it's that close. I don't see it coming out before the first basket but with it!! Just my opinion
Tbirdd: derose----thats not exactly what she said --hold on a sec. - see if I can find it…. martha: Have they squashed the vote for 9/17? The deadline for release of Rial is NO LATER THAN 9/18….. DErose-----i was thinking she meant the release of sanctions on the rial.. idk..
Derosegirl: Tbirdd I didn't think they were letting on currency come out by itself. No they already released the sanctions. Make sense to come out together?
Tbirdd: derose----agree -- and iraQ is the lynchpin in the rv/gcr---it Has to fully go first (imo.. )
Mot: There Is A Battle of Two Wolves Inside Us All ...........
There is a battle of two wolves inside us all.
One is evil. It is anger, jealousy, greed, resentment, lies, inferiority and ego.
The other is good. It is joy, peace, love, hope, humility, kindness, empathy and truth.
The wolf that wins? The one you feed~ Cherokee proverb
Tishwash: Open in front of the Iraqi-Jordanian border movement of goods
Follow-up scales News
Jordanian source announced early on Sunday, the reopening of his country's border with Iraq for commercial goods movement, in a few days.
The source said in a press statement that "the border will be opened officially in front of the flow of goods between the two countries," pointing out that "the opening of the crossings will be today or in a maximum period of one week, depending on the readiness of the Iraqi side, which has taken the necessary arrangements to open the border."
He explained that "the Jordanian and Iraqi sides have taken all the necessary arrangements to restart the" Trebil "crossing .anthy 29 / d 25
Tishwash: Iraq to pay high price as it lures back bond investors
By Reuters, Dubai/Baghdad
Sunday, 13 September 2015
Iraq looks set to make a successful return to the international bond market after nine years, raising billions of dollars but at the cost of high interest rates that could worsen its financial problems in the long run.
Baghdad launched an investor roadshow last week for a series of sovereign U.S. dollar bond sales that it hopes will raise up to $6 billion.
War against ISIS militants, tensions between the central government and the Kurdistan region, and low oil prices are pressuring its finances.
When Standard & Poor’s assigned Iraq a B-minus credit rating this month, six notches below investment grade, it said security and institutional risks were among the highest of any sovereign it assesses, on a par with Egypt and above Greece.
Magnifying the domestic risks are an unstable international market environment and the expected start of U.S. monetary tightening as soon as this month.
Five-year Iraqi credit default swaps, used to insure against a sovereign debt default, are up 77 basis points year to date at 576 bps, near six-year highs.
Partially offsetting the risks, however, is the potential of the oil industry in the second biggest OPEC producer.
The country boosted crude output to 3.80 million barrels per day in June from 3.05 million bpd a year earlier.
Baghdad has said it aims to lift overall capacity to 8.5-9 million bpd by 2020.
Bureaucratic obstacles, security fears and insufficient pipeline and storage capacity are slowing increases in output.
But southern oilfields which account for most production have escaped violence, and the country may be able to pay its debts comfortably if it achieves at least part of its oil plans.
“Iraq currently has approximately $65 billion of forex reserves, and a surge in oil production will definitely help in building this further,” said Ram Mohan, portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi’s Invest AD, which is reviewing the bond prospectus ahead of making an investment decision on the issuance.
So Iraq will find buyers for its bonds, but only if it pays ultra-high rates, fund managers say.
Baghdad has not stated the size or maturity of its first issue, but bankers expect around $2 billion of five- to seven-year paper.
The yield on Iraq’s outstanding dollar bond maturing in 2028 soared to a lifetime high of 10.80 percent last week from 8.3 percent at end-2014, partly because of expectations for additional supply.
“Given where the Iraqi 28s are trading and the level of benchmark rates, a new 10-year issue out of Iraq will have to have a coupon of 10.75 percent just to be in line with the existing bonds,” said Raza Agha, emerging sovereign debt analyst at VTB Capital.
Pricing in that area would give Iraq the highest-yielding bonds of any oil exporter in the Middle East and Africa, he added.
Iraq held investor meetings in London on Thursday and Friday, and meetings are to continue this week in New York, Boston and Los Angeles.
The focus on Western financial centres suggests Iraq may be aiming to sell many of its bonds to hedge funds and other professional investors willing to accept a high level of risk, rather than to the Gulf banks which tend to buy higher-rated bonds from the region.
Shwan Ibrahim Taha, founder of Baghdad-headquartered Rabee Securities, said the bond issue was ill-timed given low oil prices and Baghdad’s increased spending on its battle against ISIS.
“The first thing is you’re switching from huge surplus to huge deficit, but the impact of that immediately should be a very strict fiscal policy not ‘let’s go borrow money.’”
But if the issue forms part of a concerted programme to strengthen Baghdad’s finances, investors could react positively. The bond prospectus suggests that may be the case, saying Iraq will use a range of options such as domestic bonds and loans plus special drawing rights at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In early June, the IMF agreed to lend Iraq $833 million, and the World Bank is expected to provide $1.7 billion.
“The silver lining is that for the first time, people are thinking about all this, thinking about what happened, how to correct the economy, how to train, how to institutionalise, how to save,” Taha said.
Some fund managers think Iraq’s outstanding bond is attractively priced compared to Egypt’s 2020 bond, which is rated one notch above Iraq and also faces big political and security problems. That bond is trading at 4.68 percent.
Last Update: Sunday, 13 September 2015 KSA 17:11 - GMT 14:11
From Recaps Comment Section:
Jihn: I always enjoy the thoughts posted here. ML stated that:
" NOW ALSO WE HAVE THE SDR GOING TO EFFECT IN OCTOBER 2016.
WE ALSO KNOW THAT WE AND THE USD CAN NOT BE AMONG THE FIRST TO MOVE TO THAT SYSTEM. "
The USD is already one of the currencies in the basket of currencies that comprise the SDR's.
Additionally, this SDR basket will affect countries, not individuals directly. You won't be able to go to McDonalds and pay with an SDR.
And lastly, if there was any plan to make these changes in the near future do you think they would be saying so? Instead now they move that date way out there in the media.
The media is just as controlled there as it is in the USA. As Nova stated........the news tells us one thing, and then they do something else.
Hvy Traffic: Couldnt agree more if they publish what they are going to do in the future you can bet they are doing it sooner and will have all the bugs worked out by said date otherwise they all look like buffoons and the system crashes
stevep99 : So I find it somewhat interesting we aren't getting any news! I refuse to assume anything but, could it be there is a news blackout on purpose due to a purpose!?
Or...is the shut down of the internet within Iraq on purpose to prevent known or unknown activity from being revealed!? Not suspicious, just curious!!
Jhockey00: Frank & Delta with all that is going on suddenly with the CBI, security, the National Guard Law Investment Law Antimony Laundering Law getting done soon, the push for the reforms especially the monetary reform for us to get done, do you see Alack leaving the CBI in OCT like you originally thought & Shabibi coming back this year which like you stated S would get things in order real quick in term leading to the RI?
Something else that came to my mind was you mentioned back in August that things can change rather quickly, that is what made me think of this
Frank26: Your just gave a summery of the last three CCs.
C U on ......... THE 21st. KTFA Frank
Walkingstick » September 13th, 2015, 5:11 pm OPINION.............
Warning of an imminent collapse of the Iraqi dinar
Writings Sunday 13 September 2015, 16:39 am
Wrote Ahmed Altaama: Economists warned of the imminent collapse of the Iraqi dinar, amid security and economic chaos plaguing the country, and the state's inability to pay employees and retirees and accessories ongoing war salaries with the organization of the Islamic State "Daash"; which prompted thousands of young Iraqis to migrate to Europe, with millions of Iraqis struggling in Anbar and Mosul and Salahuddin hardship, after cutting state salaries.
The economist said, Mazen al-Obeidi, said that "the past eight years of rule by former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, has seen historically in vain for the money and the budget of the entire Iraq on fake projects and ministries introduced for quotas between the parties, and no need for the country. " He added: "The government has wasted more than 800 trillion Iraqi dinars, except for the hidden amounts of billions of dollars, no one knows yet where I went, and thus emptied the treasury of Iraq."
And between al-Obeidi that "the likelihood of an imminent collapse of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar has become large, the state was forced to borrow from private banks to cover expenses, and the central bank announced its intention on the sale of gold bullion for citizens to support the financial liquidity, while the Iraqi parliament approved the 2015 budget on the price of $ 56 a barrel one, while oil is witnessing volatility and a clear decline, the regional changes and the war on "Daash", as it fell to $ 45 a barrel in front of the extraction cost of up to $ 6; and this means a deficit of $ 17 per barrel.
"Observers attributed the cause of the collapse is likely dinar to ill successive governments management, and load the state budget huge amounts of money, and pay the salaries of tens of thousands of jobs and titles phantom in various security and military service organs of the State.
The banker said Salem Al Ameri "There are several factors that will lead to the collapse of the Iraqi dinar, most notably the lack of oil imports to bridge the budget deficit, in With the war in half of the country with the organization "Daash", the continuous decline in oil prices globally which means a large deficit in the country's budget.
"He said that" the security deterioration in the country's demand greatly increased the dollar-buying from the market; which means an increase in more demand of the show, and thus raise the price of the dollar gradually in front of the Iraqi dinar.
"The severe criticism from parliamentarians of the Central Bank of Iraq last June, as the dollar rose against the Iraqi dinar reached 1360 dinars to the dollar.
He accused the Congress in previous central bank statements flop in his policies, said a member of the Committee of Economy representative in a press statement earlier that "the central bank adds 8 per cent on the applications submitted by companies and traders to buy dollars, and requires them to sell dollars directly tax are met, a 5 per cent customs value of 3 per cent; bringing in Finally dollar against the Iraqi dinar.
"The Iraqi Council of Representatives approved the 2015 budget on the basis of the price of a barrel of oil by $ 56 per barrel, and the rate of export 3 million barrels per day.
Embarrassing the government
of his financial expert, Jabbar al-Fadhli said embarrassing the government, do not want to declare their inability to pay expenses, ranging from employees and pensions, which stopped three months ago in the hot provinces, and the end of the expenditures required for the ongoing military operations; and that stops most of them for lack of funding. " .
He explained Fadhli "There is a big waste of hard currency for purchases and expenses of armament, and sell directly to the dollar for companies and traders in front of the lack of oil imports and lower the price of oil globally; and this raises the budget deficit value, and here the state began borrowing from private banks; they need to borrow from the bank International bridge the budget deficit, and the payment of salaries of employees in the next few months.
"He fears the citizens of the collapse of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar; it means a humanitarian catastrophe, and the state can not pay the salaries and entitlements of citizens in the next few months.
As Iraq is heading to the issuance of the first bonds the dollar since the US invasion, sources in the British financial district last month, said that the credit rating institutions perplexed in the evaluation of these bonds, in light of the unstable political conditions experienced by Iraq and control the organization of the Islamic State (Daash) a large part of its territory.
According to the bulletin ( City AMD) which is published in London, Iraq plans to issue international bonds worth $ 6 billion. And will assume all of the bank "Citigroup" and "JP Morgan" Americans, in addition to German bonds management and marketing global bank "Deutsche Bank".
According to the expectations of sources in the neighborhood of money to Bulletin "City AMD", the rating agencies will deal with these bonds on as "junk bonds", the center of political risk experienced by Iraq.
and come together political and economic corruption and the theft of tens of billions of public money to raise the budget deficit, and makes the country unable to meet its obligations.