UU4678 Roller Coaster Rides Part 1
In my sleepy village we are now seeing the awaking, like a rebirth, of the summer months. We know what lays ahead. The lazy days of sommer. The mountains are now greener, the cool creeks are now flowing. My favorite hiking trails are once again clear of snow.
If you look on the horizon you can still see that some of the cold white snow lingering high on the mountaintops. Those that live here know that this bitterness of winter still exists in the Alpines even throughout the sommer months. As natives we know it will always be with us, as these bitter parts of life never melt away.
Today I come to you to give you a brief update on the news I am hearing about the Iraq dinar revaluation process.
I have tried to tie some of the other global events to the revaluation process in my last news letter dated 5/20 and so you might want to re-read that first if it is not fresh on your mind.
Many question the validity of what I bring to you and I do understand the many pessimist since this picture is much larger than most can imagine. It is even much larger than I could possible right in this news letter so I condense and attempt to highlight.
However we all keep asking why the stalling? Why have we not already seen the active rates so we can all go exchange?
In this Iraq election process we keep banging our heads against the wall. We get on that roller coaster every weekend. Maliki is out, then Maliki is in. We hear intel from many sources but we have hope and wish it was correct.
What is the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.
In order to help everyone understand what is going on with this election process and thus the connection with our long awaited revaluation process, I need to bring out a few points that you may find interesting.
Is Maliki going to get a 3rd term as prime minister?
What impact does this have on the revaluation of the IQD?
To decide let up realistically look at all the evidence we have been seeing over the last couple years.
First let us look at the news media in Iraq- we all should know that the Nori Al- Maliki’s and his goons own over 75% of the news media in Iraq. He can pick and choose any news that suits his party’s purpose. This news often travels to the USA via regular news channels or via so called intel sources.
So how accurate is this news? There are not many media channels in the USA that will not even challenge the news from Iraq and just report it. So what we hear in USA on the news about Iraq is not always accurate.
All these recent articles coming out of Iraq seem to indicate that no way in hell he could possibly serve a third term. Yet now we are hearing he is prime minister again? So based on this I kept asking myself - Did I just miss something or is something wrong with this picture?
Is someone or some entity from Iraq intentionally lying to us now on the election results? What is really going on here. Is there a conspiracy going on once again in Iraq? Is Maliki up to his monkey business once again?
Secondly- can we all agree that Maliki is desperate. He is fully aware of his own lack of achievements and corruption in the last 4 years. He knows about he files that document it all and the witnesses that can testify against him. Do you think he might be spreading propaganda about himself to get more support? Do you think he might be a bit overly optimistic in his reporting of the news?
Last week however we heard the news of final results from the high electoral commission of Iraq. This seemed odd since the news came to us so soon. It told us that the voting process went as smooth as silk and was now entirely completed and the results were final.
Maliki’s party had won the election and had the majority of seats in parliament. Seems that Maliki was bound for a third term. But if we paid attention they did say this was preliminary results and not the final results.
Then around Friday/Saturday 5/16-5/17 timeframe the scuttlebutt from Iraq came across that Maliki did in fact win a third term by being nominated by his own State Law Coalition, and the Islamic Dawa Party. They said it was all over and we would see the revaluation soon.
This could not be farthest from the truth. Actually what did happen is the party offered him possible support for the pm position if he could push the RV and assist in the final part of currency reform project working with the CBI. They gave him a timeline to accomplish these tasks. .
This is all funny news to me since I was just reading for weeks prior, article after article about Maliki’s slim chances of gaining another third term as prime minister. So what is going on?
Thirdly - I want you to go back in time, to about April 2012. What was going on then?
What was the big news in Iraq at this time. Do you remember ? It was about the no- confidence vote and the effort to get rid of Maliki. This effort did not stop and in fact only has intensified since. The plot to get rid of him is stronger then ever.
I also know that there has been a long and hard effort by the Sadarist movement combined with the National Islamic Council beginning around April 2012 to see to it that he did not have a third term. Do you remember all the articles about the no-confidence vote?
Does this seem like they wanted Maliki back for a third term even back then? Do you seriously think that they put up with Maliki for 4 years to turnaround and do it all over again? Of course this is just my opinion but see what you think when I give you some more facts.
Fourth - Do you remember the protestors in Iraq ? What was the #1 item of on their list of demands? It was to get rid of Maliki
I remember that in an effort to prevent more riots, Maliki announced that he will not run for a third term in 2014, and called for a constitutional term limit. This term limit was then written and voted on by his own Shiite members in parliament and was ratified into law.
Maliki then took an about face and began apposing the new law as unconstitutional since he never actually thought it would be enacted.
Fifth- What about the recent meeting that Maliki had with the Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani just prior to the elections. The purpose of the meeting was to plea with the Kurds for their support.
It is my understanding the Kurdistan leader refused to even see Maliki.. Maliki then followed up with a 30 pages request to the Kurdistan president for support. This too was rejected.
So we must remember the past since the 2010 elections edged on the support from the Kurds. This one of the primary reason why Maliki was even allowed a second term.
This was the final determining factor. So what now will happen in the final conclusion to this election without the support of the Kurdistan region? It does not look good for Maliki.
Six - Let me now go back to the news we heard just prior to the elections on the involvement of the UN in the voting process. I guess they suspected that someone would try fowl play ( I wonder who?) and so they had over 600+ UN reps throughout Iraq monitoring the process. This was not only for security reasons but also to ensure no monkey business with the ballots.
So in brief here is how the process went.
When someone cast a vote it actually was cast in triplicate. One copy went to the electoral commission of Iraq and one copy to the UN. I am not sure where the third went.
After the polls closed in each province the UN took their ballot boxes, sealed them and had the Iraq electoral commission certify the seal. The electoral commission of Iraq took their boxes too.
The UN boxes remained sealed until just recently when representatives from the electoral commission of Iraq gathered with the UN representatives present opened the boxes and both parties began to re-count and validate the votes.
All three ballot boxes from each province should now match….right? This is the first level of control. Next even if they did match was the ballot legitimate? The second level of control.
Here is why it is taking so long to get the final results of the elections to us, Here is what they found..
1) they have found over 2 million invalid ballots cast by dead people. Most of these votes were cast for Shiite members
2) they found that the paper ballot itself were invalid since they were not legitimate ballots in the first place. Only so many ballots were sent to each province based on the census count. So how could you have more ballots than people voting?
3) Each ballot was printed on custom paper including a custom “watermark” sent from the maker of the paper. Most did not even know this was done. Millions of votes were discovered as invalid due to lack of proper watermark. These were again mostly cast for Shiite members.
Is this sounding fishy yet?
Certification of Election Results
So what I am trying to tell you is that the final validation of the ballots is a lengthy process. We were told it would take about 10 days to complete once started. This must be done to certify the results. I am told we are nearing the end of this 10 day period. The final certification is due to be completed on May 25th.
Seven - In the meantime negotiations between parties are taking place. Unlike the elections in the USA, Iraq has a parliamentary form of election process.
The citizens vote on the a) parliamentary members and 2) the party that will best represents the new government has the most seats in parliament and thus gets to build the new government
So once the final ballot counts are certified and announced the winning party will then form the new government. This must still be done within the guidelines of the constitution.
Unlike the basic 2 party system in the USA, in Iraq there are many more parties. So after the elections the preliminary results get announced (already done) then the bargaining begins.
The parties form coalitions and combine the votes given to individual parties to form stronger blocks and stronger coalitions.