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UU6806 – “ Is Iraq Now Ready For The RV?” by Mnt Goat
Today I come to you once again to see what sense we can all make out of this RV saga of the Iraqi dinar.
I am sending out this news today since I believe it is a critical period we are now entering and all of you should be prepared for anything to happen in the very near future.
As I said previously this timeframe from mid September onward is a critical timeframe for Iraq and much is riding on them completing these economic reforms and other reforms on time. What is this timeframe for completion? Do they now have a good progress report? Is Iraq ready to pull the trigger on their currency reform?
I will try to answer many of these questions today.
Today is Tuesday September 15th and still no RV.
I want to begin today with an article from a news media meeting with Abadi. I really like this article because it is a general article about just where Iraq is economically and sums it all up where they are going. It verifies other news we had about the relationship between the 2015 budget, the price if oil and their economy.
I need also to remind you that the leaders of Iraq are new to having a democracy and a free and robust economy and need assistance in setting it up and regulating it.
Perhaps they are now ready? To what extent will they continue with the reforms before they finally agree to their new currency rollout? When will they be ready?
I have been saying not for two weeks, not a month but almost 6 months already that we should be looking at mid September as an excellent window of opportunity for the currency rollout of the lower denominations and a significant increase in the value of the dinar for Iraq.
Why did was I so firm on this timeframe when many other intel “gurus” kept trying to convince you it would go sooner than later. What did they know that I knew or better yet, what did I know that they did not?
I talked about a mid June 2015 Paris Conference and how they met with the newly elected prime minister, the speaker of the house and the finance minister to discuss the progress of Iraq.
They discussed a possible 90 day time period from mid June to mid September for Iraq to get its laws in place and anything needed to support the new economy and to try to solve their deficit crisis. So it is mid September already and where are they now?
Currently they are in the process of the meeting to discuss progress made since June. So far there is no word on what they plan to do next since the meeting continues until September 17th , (just 2 days from now).
I therefore do not expect any rollout of the new currency until at least after this date. But after this date we shall see the results and they will tell us what their next steps are.
But this is what we do know for sure - We know by the second article that I presented below is their reform plan and they are telling us it called for two phases. One they call "hot fixes" and the other "gradual reforms".
.The question is - Do they need to achieve all the needed economic reforms of the country or just through the phase they called "hot fixes", then later implement the more "gradual reforms" post RV?
Perhaps from the current meeting, a follow up meeting from the June Paris Conference, they will ask for more time and refuse to go ahead with the currency rollout since they can also ask for an extension in their timeframe and then continue to push parliament to implement more of the reforms beyond the “hot fixes”.
I am hearing all the hot fixes are now in place so at least they have completed them.
They can also ask for more time to implement many of the planned “gradual reforms” and be refused by the IMF and WTO and thus they are forced to go ahead with the RV anyhow.
At this time we just don’t know which way they will go but we will know shortly.
This article below is an excellent bit of news. It is hopeful and very good news for us investors because it shows progress and a willingness to move even more forward.
I quote from this article - "the state is heading in the tunnels is reasonable and normal", stressing that "we are fighting today even control the spending and oil imports is less than the salary that we need today and try to find a solution and we are keen on it."
These are Abadi’s words not mine.
Here is a tid bit of information you may not know. The Customs and Tariffs alone have the potential to bring in revenue almost equal to oil revenues. Amazing is it not?
So now do you understand why they implemented the Customs and Tariff law so hastily all of a sudden once oil prices dropped?
Here is their words not mine- "there are urgent steps to activate the taxes and customs in real time."
But we all know that so far the tariffs have not been as successful as potential dictates.
THEY NEED BORDER CROSSING SECURITY and AN INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY WITH A REALISTIC VALUE
So all of you who still believe Iraq will never be an economic giant and thus have a significant increase in the the value of their currency soon- think again!
So all of you who still believe Iraq will never have physical security and get rid of terrorism- think again!
So all of you who still believe Iraq will never play on the international level - think again !
ABADI: COUNTRY VENTURED BY SPENDING LESS OIL AND IMPORTS OF SALARIES THAT WE NEED
Alsumaria News / Baghdad - The prime minister single-Abadi, Monday, that the state ventured into spending, at a time between the current oil imports is less than the salaries needed by the country, he noted that state spending is heading unreasonably.
Ebadi said in a conference the start of the second workshop for the implementation of reforms for the advancement of the agricultural sector to hold, today, in Baghdadand attended by Alsumaria News, "The reforms at the beginning of the NGED have an impact in light of the large accumulations of state corruption and the loss of wealth", adding that "state spending doubled abnormally" .
He added Abadi, that "the State ventured when increased spending after he had wrongly assumed that the production of Iraq's crude oil will reach more than 8 million barrels per day and oil prices will escalate," he said. "This assumption adventurer and can not be dealt with the community in this adventure, considering that this related to people's lives. "
Abadi pointed out that "the state is heading in the tunnels is reasonable and normal", stressing that "we are fighting today even control the spending and oil imports is less than the salary that we need today and try to find a solution and we are keen on it."
The drop in oil prices represents a big problem for Iraq, which relies on oil revenues, mainly as a source of income at a time when facing major internal challenges of Baktale with Daash organization and the need to save money for essential services, which suffers from a significant shortage.
Next I am including a very long article and it also tells us so much about the pulse of the Iraqi parliament and what it is up to. Remember we need to have a level of these reform laws passed and implemented before any RV situation but just how far will they ask to go.
So we look for the needed laws in the session agenda and in article that prevail afterwards from the session. We are not mind readers and so article telling us about the aftermath is good. No “secret” sources of intel here….lol…..just the facts and no hype !
So let me point out a few of the goodies in this article from the session on Monday 9/14.
First they are telling us the session was attended by 212 deputies. This is really good since in the past under Maliki they were lucky to get attendance to 80 or 90 deputies.
Remember they can’t vote on a bill unless they have at least a quorum (51% or more members). They tend to get this high rate of attentions consistently now so this quorum requirements certainly does not appear to be an issue any longer.
Second the session has two themes – Internal Security and Reconstruction.
So much needed legislation. Do we need all of it to be completed prior to an RV? My opinion is NO. But there is key legislation that needs to be coordinated together with other bills. These are dependencies and inter connectiveness between what they are trying to do.
Many of these bills are also just amendments or changes to the wording of existing laws to better suite where Abadi needs to bring Iraq.
Remember much of the Internal Security will now be provided by the National Guard law once fully enacted so they must adjust these other laws prior to bringing that one to legal implementation and passage in parliament.
Third, the government talks about the objective of its formation, indicating that the link to legislation body should be to the interests of the Iraqi people and will contribute to the successful implementation of the needed laws.
Forth, the article points out that the spread of terrorism at home can be controlled and it can be done by addressing the problem of unemployment and correct education curriculum.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VOTE ON THE BILLS AND FINISHED READING A DRAFT ANTI-TERRORISM LAW
Voice of the House of Representatives the usual twenty-second in its session held under the chairmanship of Dr. Salim al-Jubouri, President of the Council and in the presence of 212 deputy on Monday 09/14/2015, the bills ended with the second reading of two bills.
At the outset of the session, Mr. President al-Jubouri, the name of the Council condemn the threats that affect its members and the abuse of legislative authority and related work, demanding the Commander in Chief of the armed forces take the necessary steps to protect the members of the Board of any blackmail operation targeting their views actions.
The Council voted on a draft law to control the noise and submitted by the Committee on Health and the EnvironmentAs it causes noise pollution affects the environment and human health and to provide a clean environment and in order to maintain the integrity of the environment and public health and make it suitable for human life and other living organisms through the identification requirements to control the noise.
And allergic Council vote on a resolution to give priority to the Iraqi civil presses print in the school curriculum and submitted by the Legal Committee and forwarded to the Education Committee for study and finalize the law in line with the national interest.
On the other hand, the Council voted on the draft first amendment to the law sanctions the Internal Security Forces Law No. (14) for the year 2008 and submitted by the committees of defense and security, legal and which aims to reconsider the penalties provided for in the law.
Council to vote on the draft law of the board of the border crossing points and provided financial security and defense, services and reconstruction, legal, economic and investment committees to the next session.
This was followed by MP Abdul-Hadi al-Hakim, a proposal to resolve the housing crisis in the country, the central government called for and cooperation with the regions and provinces to allocate a piece of residential land per family do not have a dwelling place that divides the residential blocks of 100 m2 to 200 m2 to be distributed free of charge through the draw.
He called wise to set up a fund from the state and private companies and banks to finance the construction ancestor to be rewarding amounts are repaid over 25 years old and banking facilities.
In turn, Mr. President of the Council to refer the proposal to the face of the committees of services and financial reconstruction and to study it.
Mr. Jubouri as instructed for the Commission on Human Rights of the need to speed up the completion of freedom of expression and demonstration law and submit it to a vote.
It ended the second reading of the draft law public body was to monitor the allocation of federal revenues and submitted by the financial committees and the regions and governorates not organized in a region.
In the interventions, ladies and gentlemen MPs, MP Hassan Turan called to add oil to the Ministry of bodies and ministries mentioned in the draft law.
The MP Riad strange that the law will contribute to the achievement of justice in the distribution of revenue and solve the problems between the center and the region, calling for the formation of a limited and fixed panel of experts not to exceed five members representing the center and the provinces.
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You