"the measures being taken to the Central Bank by the government will maintain the value of the dinar and perhaps raised during the coming period, which will impact positively on the overall activity of the national economy." LINK
SCALP: coming period sits nice with the start of a new year..as in 1/1/13 <=== that date looks mighty strong right now, heres hoping :) or before, even better...I just think the new currency has to come out at the start of a new year like shabbers said so am feeling good to see this in the next 8 weeks or less, hope they don't disappoint us again!
Alot points to early 2013 being our time and of course tons of articles from cbi since 2010 saying early 2013 help me feel confident that this might actually be it.....we just didn't want to believe that date back then, I will take it with both hands now, yup I will :)
I think shabbygate is all about M taking the credit for saving Iraq and therefore securing another term as PM...heres hoping they pass that term law, thhats a slap in the face I want to see :
KAPPERONI: I continue to see people relating the 1st of the year with this event. Yes, Shabibi himself stated this as it relates to the accounting records, budget etc.
But unless they RV the dinar to be worth more than the dollar, it has no effect. Therefore, as stated several times, we expect a float which will be gradual over time rising to 1 to $1 over a period of months.
Read More Link On Right
KAPPERONI CONTINUES:This accomplishes much of what Iraq needs economically, WTO, convertable currency, ISX, investment, etc. to move forward. As for the GOI, they then would have to wait to 2014 to "officially announce" the lifting of the zeros and implimentation which would take effect on the 2014 budget hopefully giving them a rate that would help them reduce the cost of the "investment" side of the budget.
Keep in mind, none of that has anything to do with us as dinar holders/investors....we simply want to see the dinar rise in value...which can start at anytime.
SCALP: So do we think that if they floated the rate now it would be up to at decent enough rate by the 1st of jan 2013 to release the new currency? thats the big question, there is no way round them saying the new currency has to come out at the start of a year not during it....
With everything that is going on a believe a straight up rv is back on the cards rather than a float, every day that passes and no float the less chance we are going to get a float IMO
Im pretty sure this is why shabby has been removed.
I just can't see a float im sorry, too late in the game now, im more than happy to be right and wrong, each one still gives me what I have been waiting so long for.
I have never believed M doesnt want a better rate, I believe it was a stand off between M and S,
S wouldnt give the rv until power share was done, m said neh i dont want it anyway, stand off continued for months, shabby seen he wasnt going to win this one so thought of a plan to get round it..the float.
M was mega peesed at this and stopped it...stand off continues, shabby aint budging this time so M finds a way to remove him....all because he wants a straight rv and to be the saviour of Iraq. JMO
Funny how the float idea surfaces then M stops it all, then shabby looks like hes gunna do it then M removes him....I will never believe M doesnt want an rv...never.
This has all just been a mexican stand off and M has won....now he will rv and take all thhe credit and win another term in office. JMO JMO :P hopefully we find out soon enough who is correct...like we will care then
CBI has put out articles as far back as i can remember stating the 1/1/13 date or early Jan 2013....for years!
TLAR: I respectfully disagree that there will be a low float starting anywhere near 1166 to 1 USD, up to 10 to 1 USD. Most of the articles being presented today under the new bank governor an others involved in this process are back to mentioning "the removal of the zeros". To me this means exactly what they say.
Removing the zeros off the nominal rate means going from .00086 to .86 per US dollar. Removing the zeros to me does not imply a gradual raise over a period of time.
Although this is still not known for sure, Shabbs only made reference to starting low and letting it go up from there which might be all and in itself the reason Maliki went after him.
Shabbs was definitely concerned with the process and had definitely appeared to be afraid to put his good name on the line especially when the government appeared to be firmly against this.
The landscape has changed. Maliki can pretty do as he pleases if he satisfies the IMF. My best guess is that they would no longer use the phrase "remove the zeros" if they meant to come out lower than .86.
I think articles over the next few weeks will give us all insight to not only understand their intentions but we will be in a better position to take a true stab at guessing the ratel Remove the zeros, remove the zero,I'm just trying to mentally send them a picture.
BUGSY: so we now see this article everywhere. So are we just going to see if move a few pips, or are they going to move forward and add some real value? I would think that in order for chapter 8 some things would need to be removed first and some more things completed....JMO
I can totally agree on one part and ponder the rest...for the sites that say this is going to be 10 bucks i"ll give ya 9 go buy a clue, aint gonna happen. REally chaps my **** when i read these stories and predictions that cloud real thoughts. I would really like to know however if Kap has been in touch with the "facilatator" and where this now stands.
THe dude on a couple weeks ago was pretty clear on things ......need to get him back on so questions can be asked, about where he feels this is going. I think we are all clear on Malikis persnonality lets get some straight up where are we at questions in
KAPPERONI: though it is easy to speculate based on how one sees this information, one cannot discount what we have already showed. We have pretty compelling evidence that the CBI's plan has changed or at least been modified to raise the value via a float.
To the extent of signed contracts (facilitator) with CBI officials and the MInister of Finance. I am all for the "staging rate" of .86 or about, but the float information is real and factual. If it ends up being anything other than a float, I would be very surprised.
DEZERTHEAT: Tlar, I have to agree, I think it was going to float, but circumstances have changed and now we will "hopefully" see a rate of .86 or higher out the gate.
SCALP: Agree DEZERTHEAT ...the float was just an idea that was stopped at every turn....shabby continued to push and looked close to doing it so they simply removed him to stop it.............I think an RV is the only thing that works now.
Things change in Iraq at the drop of a hat, we know that....this float deal may have been made but things have changed again.
It's always been an rv...shabbs had an idea of a float.....it was blown out of the water...he tried to continue with it anyway and was removed...simples.
If it is going to be a float we well could be waiting till his time next year....the float needs to start now (not that i believe that is an option now) As always...JMO :)
Sorry for my ignorance but Who is this 'facilitator 'person?
TLAR: Kap, I appreciate your thoughts and acknowedge that you could be on target. Everything is up for grabs. I believe that they were going to do a float also so your facts, I believe to be on target.
Before Shabibi was taken down three weeks ago the articles stopped talking about removing the zeros which heavily supports your premise. What I see today is the Finance Committee talking once again about removing the zeros. My question is this.
Why would the Maliki government now of all times suggest in articles the removal of the zeros or allow any of their people as in their Finance group, talk about it if they intend to now come out at a low float?
Look Kap, I respect you but I see the rate differently from you because the situation is now different.
Where as before we had two strong willed people at each others throat, today we see the bank acting in concert with the government.
Shabibi was afraid of the trigger in my opinion and he became afraid of the rate. I don't believe Maliki is afraid of either. It will be his choice as long as he abides by the IMF.
If he does pull the trigger I think he will re-instate the previous plan to remove the zeros. He will go large. I believe he will do this for the same reasons he recanted the removal of the ration card, to please the people.
If he does he will cement himself firmly into the political landscape with the blessing of the people. Either or we come out winners in my opnion. These are just my thoughts and quite honestly, I hope I'm right and your wrong.
KAPPERONI: Well Tlar I hope your right. Kirk Sowell, our middle east political expert has stated on numerious occassions that the GOI and Maliki have demonstrated a "weak dinar" policy meaning they have shown no desire to raise the value. Let's hope he is wrong and it does go up soon.
Bugsy, Scalp, nothing new to report regarding the "facilitator". It's a very delicate situation (this is not some game, it's a countries financial system so keep in mind there are non-disclosures, contracts, laws, etc all at play) so I have not reached out since we found out that the CBI events clearly were going to slow everything.
Finding out details that can be "leaked" is not something I want to do if I can get in trouble for it. If this heats up again and we see more articles, I will try and get more information. As we say on the conference call, "we need to just let it come to us."
JOEG: Something to ponder.... Kap stands firm on the float theory, which was based on numerous articles and info about the facilitator, etc. So, in that respect, he has a leg to stand on.
However, consider this...the float theory, as I understand it (Kap, tell me if I'm wrong) was Shabs' modified plan to do an end run around Maliki and the GOI.
He had to do something and he realized the RV wasn't going anywhere (too much risk for blame if it fell through, etc.). So, the float theory was born, which would achieve multiple objectives (e.g., end run around Maliki, remove risk of blame from the CBI, etc.).
HOWEVER, times and circumstances changed again, and Shabs was removed. Maliki is now in control.
Now that Maliki is in control and Shabs is out, I see no reason why the float theory also can't be removed along with Shabs. Current contracts with the facilitator don't mean squat.
Sorry, Kap, they don't. Goverments, especially this Government, cancel contracts all the time for no apparent reason or for stupid political reasons, oftentimes without regard to cost or any other impact.
Also, another option the Government has is to keep the contract in place and continue paying the money, but don't implement the execution plan----in other words, sometimes it's more cost effective to keep the contract in-place and keep paying for it in case you need it later than it is to outright cancel the contract.
So, in my opinion (just an opinion!), the contract thing with the facilitator has zero influence on any decision to keep the float theory alive. I don't care whether it floats or RVs, and I believe now that Shabs is out and Maliki is in, there's just as much chance of the old RV plan occurring as the float theory. Just something to chew on.... Kisses, Lilian.
KAPPERONI: Joe, it is very possible they could go back to original plan of "staging rate" at or about .86. Only time will tell. This article could also be nothing more than a way to sell more dinar also. Lol
ROCKINRICH: if shabs couldnt get an rv before because of maliki what makes people think were going to get an rv now i dont see it personally i think i'll believe what kap says as far as a float
CARRELLO: As I recall, Shabibi was going to a float because he did not have to get approval from the government (Maliki) to do so.
SADIE: Just to throw my 2 dinars in...I agree with Scalp...I have always felt Maliki wanted an RV, he just doesn't want the 3 zeros removed, and he really doesn't want new currency with the Kurdish language on it and to have to look at a bill with Kurdish symblols on it every day (a slap in his face).
Back in April an article came out by Anbuge (one of M's advisors) talking about the rate and bringing Iraq back to it's glory. During that CC, Steve laughingly said, 'Maybe it isn't that Maliki doesn't won't the RV, maybe it's that he doesn't want Shabbs to bring it out at a low rate.'
And I agreed, I have felt the M has always wanted it as high as he could get it. He doesn't care about Iraq or its people, If he could get in and get out with a real high exchange rate, he probably would be gone, even if they economy crashed, HE DOESN'T CARE....
Also you have to remember Maliki is not an economist, nor a banker, he doesn't truly understand how all this works. He thought he could take over the Central Bank, walk in a take over the reserves....He didn't even know they weren't being held there.
Here's where I think our real problem is. The Goverment is now in control of the Central Bank. Turki is now the new Govenor. But if the Cental Bank is no longer independent, will the IMF alow them to RV at any rate???
And, if you are still considering a float, is anyone going to buy a currency that can be seized by the goverment. These other countries see the opportunity, but they see the risk also, with a dictator at the helm. JMO
CARRELLO: Do the powers-that-be like the IMF, WB, and WTO let a wanna-be thug dicator take over CBI, get in the way of their plans, or does Maliki take a dirt nap?
I read an article today that stated a trillion dollars was needed for investment into Iraq from outside sources. If a trillion dollars is a good investment, what do you think the return would be? See where I am going with this? ..... dirt nap....nigh night.