Elmerf123456: Peshmerga to receive delayed salaries on Sunday, Monday bit.ly/24YLQhl #Iraq #Economy
Elmerf123456: Peshmerger is the fighting army of kurdistan region… Kurdistan's tough Fighters compared to Gorillas. Very loyal and stay in the fight.
Robert001: Elmer,, but at what rate?
Elmerf123456: Robert cage rate in Iraq has nothing to do with what we relieve. Two different issues.
Robert001: So Elmer,, will the funds they receive now be at a new rate for that country or the old rate they have always had???
Elmerf123456: IMO you must understand not to get a fixated on rates get a fixated on the finish! Also what is of my opinion that the rates we receive her based on oil credits and have nothing to do with the rates in country sitter compare the two is pointless. The countrymen and Iraq want their birthright perpetuity not oil credits
The only rates that matter are what you negotiate at the time of being in front of your banker. All else is mute in my opinion
JCNoble: Elmer does Peshmerga getting paid means that Iraq has cards to all?
Elmerf123456: cnobel I don't know. Getting paid is better than not getting paid…. I think we can all agree that if getting paid is getting paid and chickens I don't care how I get my chickens as long as I get my chickens! It's a door opening forward instead of closed
EP53: Correct Elmer, it means money is flowing.
Noblelion77: I like this article . it is more the fault of his "financial advisors"
SassyD: Bottom line....... we will ALL know within a VERY SHORT timeframe when this baby pops..... no matter what or how many sites you read or listen too !!! That is a FACT you can take to the bank !!! When this GCR is finally finished who will really give a rats who picked the closest date.... who was right, near right or wrong ??? ..... I know I certainly wont !!!
Jiba777: The mantra of every intel provider - 'I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.'
SassyD: Lest We Forget: --- A DAD is someone that is there for his children. A father is something else; a father is more of a biological term than a role or relationship. -- For all the StepDads, boyfriends, non-biological males in a child's life---- It takes a strong man to accept somebody else's children and step up to the plate another man left on the table....
SassyD: This is what I told my grandson when he complained about my son being hard on him...... “Listen, there is no way any true man is going to let children live around him in his home and not discipline and teach, fight and mold them until they know all he knows. His goal is to make them better than he is. Being their friend is a distant second to this.” - Victor Devlin He came back later and told me he thought he understood what I was trying to get across to him !!
PJ: The PTB as we hear power will not go away to me. So the question is will they let this go? If their friends /family have been taken care of as we here and understood why can't they just realease?
We are wearing down so if that was the goal it's working. I won't get rid of it but the excitement is a bit lost. Too many agendas will keep living and praying for us all to see this one day soon.
NWMontana: IMO, this is bigger than politics, parties, elections. Big gears are turning this process, it's slow going, but we are rolling along along and into the final stretch...Delays are De-Lies, when all the parts come together, the thing is done
Rcookie : THE THINGS THE IMF IS REQUIRING TO GET DONE...LEGISLATIVELY...ARE REVISION OF 2016 BUDGET LAW...REVISION OF CBI LAW...VOTING OF PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LAW...BUT WE NEED PARLIAMENT BACK TO WORK...YESTERDAY!
Q: [Not much left to do, just need parliament to either get through their break and meet or to call an emergency session to get this stuff DONE!]
ReddStarr: First off....Happy Fathers Day to all the Fathers out there! Many blessings guys.....this article is a gift....LOL.....it says so much....lots of confirmations....
If you are a student....then you should be smiling ear to ear.....IMO....this is telling you the agreement was made.....and the reasons why....and how it's going to be played out....this is the biggest kicker....for me....
"The first is to get the $13 billion external loan, which could be the Iraqi state used to strengthen the cash reserve $54 billion to become the $67 billion sum, this will support the strength of the Iraqi dinar".....back in 2013....
Shab's said $60 billion in reserves...."would make the dinar one of the strongest currencies in the region"....Booyah....this is definitely moving in the right direction.....take it to God....in prayer....
Causes and effects of potential loan of the International Monetary Fund for Iraq!
Public loans is one of the public finance policies resorted to by developed and developing countries alike, to cover public expenditure (current or investment or both) that fail to domestic financial resources for its coverage, these loans are not exempt from the effects of which can be let go, whether positive or negative and the producers or consumers, and the current or future generations ... etc. It's important to leave a clear impact, and this prompted some study and analysis of the causes and potential effects of the IMF loan to Iraq of $ 13 billion which was agreed upon which falls on Thursday 19/05/2016 after negotiations lasted for four days.
There are reasons why Iraq resort to borrowing from the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, a low necessary to cover the overhead of local resources, since it is known that the Iraqi economy depends and very significantly in the financing of the general budget on oil resources (which contribute more than 97% of the total public revenues in 2013 and earlier during the recovery of oil prices, but fell with the drop in oil prices to make up more than 83% and 85% of total public revenues in 2015 and 2016, respectively) which are to fluctuate as a result of fluctuations that occur on the prices on the one hand, the hand Other oil prices are determined by external factors (global markets), and thus can not be controlled, any fluctuation affects prices quickly reflected in the decline in oil revenues, which represent President supplier to cover overhead, are resorting to borrowing.
As well as the low volume of tax revenue which is the indicator of how the economy develops or not, as the agricultural and industrial economic activities, construction, electricity, etc., whenever they are more productive and able to compete with foreign goods similar, whenever helped to increase tax revenue further, and this is what helps cover public expenditure without resorting to borrowing, but this did not happen in Iraq, as tax revenue accounted for only 2.29% of the total public revenues in 2013 and then improved to constitute approximately 6% and 6.96% of the total public revenues in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and this the improvement was due to lower oil prices, but the result even with the improvement in tax rates has been to resort to borrowing because of the very low contribution taxes in the budget.
Iraq that also did not work to increase only capital expenditures but also reduce the proportion of 39.81% in 2013 to 34.49% and 27.14% of the total public expenditure in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and continued to increase the size of the operating expenses (current) of 60.18% in in 2013 to 75.68 of the total public expenditure in 2016, particularly military expenditures (Ministry of Interior and Defence) to meet the organization Daash terrorist, as contribution from 13.82% in 2013 rose to 16.84% of the total public expenditure in 2016, and this is what leads to an increase domestic demand as a result of inflexibility Iraqi production device, any lack of production growing demand for a response, so it will meet domestic demand from abroad by increasing imports, and this adversely affects the balance of payments situation (ie, for the case of the deficit).
Iraq is required to further external borrowing to finance the balance of payments deficit on the one hand, the impact of imports on the competitiveness of similar domestic goods that did not bear more taxes because any increase in the size of the tax would have an impact adversely on the level of economic activity on the other.Iraq did not contribute to building the productivity of a variety of active base contribute to the construction of the vessels in order to tax the state can impose taxes in the shadow of the drop in oil prices, exceptional circumstances, so that the face of declining oil revenues, which is funded by the president to meet the needs of public expenditures.
As well as corruption in all its forms, administrative, financial and economic causing wastage of financial resources, as the annual report is a summary of the Integrity Commission for 2015 indicates that public funds recovered worth (32,528,859,617) Iraqi dinars, through the conduct of investigative actions in a number corruption cases, while the public funds that were sentenced to judicial its response to the state treasury (63,283,302,513) Iraqi dinars.
The money that prevented the body wastage and stop dispensing preserve public money through investigative procedures have reached (1,068,493,924,006) Iraqi dinars. For example, the oil ministry to prepare a study completed in 03.23.2015 for losses due to waste, neglect and mismanagement in oil production operations, because those losses were estimated Around (14.5) billion US dollars for the period from 2011 to the end of 2014, this what was expressed by oil Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, "this is the real corruption ... this is the real major losses and waste of funds" and there are an estimated amount of waste trillion dollars from 2006-2015 in the field of energy just how other areas? !!!.
These figures indicate the extent of corruption in Iraq, which caused a decline in the volume of public revenue and thus increase the deficit in the public budget size and this is what pays about borrowing to meet public spending requirements.
The economic impact of IMF loan
Lies diagnosis effects left by external borrowing, $ 13 billion, the Iraqi economy is based on two points: the first point is the conditions attached to the loan in terms of both the benefits and the size necessary to repay the loan principal annual installments or in terms of conditions set by the international institutions of any IMF international as a prelude for borrowing, and these conditions danger lies in the mortgage and subordination of the Iraqi economy to international institutions and loss of independence.
Because the lower the interest, the size of the annual premium is low, the more increases the ability of the Iraqi economy on the face of external borrowing and service (but after the compatibility with the second point) and vice versa, but what happened in this loan is that the loan interest was very low as it did not exceed 1.5%. were also identified for repayment of the loan within a period of five years, but after three years opacity grace, which does not repay the loan as soon get the country on the loan and allowed him to start paying the loan after three years, and the rate represents 7% to GDP and this is what It means that it falls within the optimal size of public debt as the 60% of GDP, is in many countries and economic unions acceptable ratio according to the international Monetary Fund and international standards.
The head of the Commission of Economy and Parliamentary investment, Jawad al-Bolani, on Tuesday ratified May 17, "The IMF did not impose conditions on Iraq in return for lending, as some believe, but gave a vision to address the significant problems of the national economy, as a result of its dependence on oil only "noting that" the fund wants the Iraqi government to reduce its spending and focus on productive sectors to enhance budgetary resources. " The advantages of this loan make Iraq lucky to get it, and should be employed optimally to revive the Iraqi economy and stand on its feet, as it may not get foreign loans possess benefits available under this loan.
The second point which is the activities that are directed towards foreign borrowing, they are investing activities (capitalism) or consumer (operational)? If the loan was directed towards investment activities will lead to the recovery of the Iraqi economy through the activation of inert such as agriculture, industry, manufacturing, tourism and other sectors, and building tax vessels able to afford the tax burden to cope with continued loan and its benefits, but if the loan was about consumer activity guide will lead to inflation, the emergence of even slightly, on the one hand, and on the other hand, the problem lies in the loan geared toward consumer activities is limited to the lack of production base to build reliable in paying back the loan and its benefits at the time of payment solutions.
The economic impact of foreign borrowing
Pass the economic effects left by the external loan in three stages:
The first is to get the $ 13 billion external loan, which could be the Iraqi state used to strengthen the cash reserve Albala $ 54 billion to become the $ 67 billion sum, this will support the strength of the Iraqi dinar and thereby reduce the low purchasing power and not to the general price level to rise.
But if the use of external loan for the purchase of goods and services, the effects left by the (loan) on the Iraqi economy is depending on the type of imported goods, it was the consumer that will increase the supply of these goods (consumer) and thus prevent inflation, though investment that will lead to expansion in the investment and raise the level of income.
The second external loan spending phase, if the Iraqi economy to infuse this loan will lead to a state of inflation as a result of competitive individuals in the state to obtain goods and services on the one hand, and lack of flexibility of the production machinery on the other hand. And vice versa in the case of flexible production machine will result in the injection to achieve an increase in real output without for inflation. But even in the absence of the Iraqi flexible production machine will not get inflation, but simple borders, due to the leakage of any element is to meet the increasing domestic demand through imports.
The third phase of the payment of external loan, the repayment of IMF loan and its benefits, requires a truncated portion of the purchasing power of consumers or producers of Iraqis and transfer to the International Monetary Fund to meet the continued payment of the loan and its benefits.
Imposing taxes on consumption would reduce the amount of savings and then high interest rates and low investment and low gross national product size rates, and the terms imposed on producers, it is working to increase the production of local commodities costs and thus higher prices and therefore it can not compete with foreign goods at home or abroad Vtaatahtm local industries are resorting to outside to fill this local medicine on one hand, are usually repay foreign loans in foreign currency which negatively affects the dinar, Iraq's exchange rate, which leads to the events of a deficit in the balance of Iraq's payments on the other hand, the price, and both standpoints Tathera negatively on Iraqi economy.
The social effects of foreign borrowing
The social effects of foreign borrowing on the nature of the tax structure is based, if the tax system is based on indirect taxes, as is the case in developed countries, the Stoic true to the loan principal and interest are layered with high incomes and especially if coincided with the imposition of progressive taxation and this leads to a redistribution of income toward classes limited income, and vice versa, as is the case in developing countries and Iraq, including, any are re-distribution of national income towards high-income classes when the tax system is based on indirect taxes becomes then a real Stoic to the loan principal and interest are the low-income classes, the fact that the marginal propensity consumption is high among these classes, especially if it coincided with the imposition of top-down taxes.
For example, the direct tax rate represents 32.81% of the tax revenue in 2015, while indirect taxes make up 67.18% of the tax revenue for the same year, this means that the repayment of the loan value and benefits in Iraq be borne by low-income classes as well as higher propensity marginal consumption, which is approaching the right one.
Hamid al-Jubouri / Euphrates Center for Development and Strategic Studies