conradmc1 I've only been involved in this venture for 15 months and totally believe in a positive outcome for all of us. What amazes me is the range of views this venture elicits. For the most part too many of the participants seem to have a very narrow focus regarding the end result.
Some predict a figure.. others say the budget doesn't support that number and the debate goes on. Same thing with who's in charge or for that matter who's on first base. Bottom line when you look at the big picture Irag has tremendous wealth. They can support any value that is determined for the Dinar.
The world is going electronic... the amount of dinars in circulation is not an issue. Look at all the attention being given to the cards in Irag or even Isis promotion in the USA.
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Personally I compare this to the California gold rush. We have many countries and companies all lined up to stake a claim as soon as the starting gun is fired. Forget the who ,when , why and how this whole thing is set to happen in a big way. A significant RV will be the way to move the whole world forward.
This is not about simple economics learned in the classroom. When the Iragi people have money to spend, all the entities at the starting line will be rushing in to get that money and the economic world will move forward.
Rebel: conradmc1: For the most part I agree with your analysis, with two exceptions. First, I think that the amount of dinar in circulation, including that which will be converted to electronic accounts upon an rv, does in fact have a bearing upon what the BIS will approve for a value of the dinar.
The amount of currency, notes and electronic, represent a liability the CBI has to back up. It makes a huge difference in the value a dinar note can represent in value based upon how many dinar exist. Shabibi talked about reducing the amount of dinar notes down to something around thirty billion.
When he was talking about that, the information available indicated that there were thirty trillion in dinar. i understand that Shabs was talking about having the thirty billion in circulation in the country, which I assume (maybe correctly or incorrectly) that this would not include the amount of dinar that would be held by central banks in their currency reserves (that amount being mostly a guess).
I suggest that the initial value of the dinar at rv will be directly impacted by the actual amount of dinar that are in circulation. There have been various reports indicating that the CBI has reduced the number of notes originally representing the thirty trillion dinar by as much as 40% to 50%.
If one further assumes that a significant number of the removed notes were the $25K and $10K notes, then it is possible that the CBI has in fact significantly reduced the amount of dinar remaining in circulation.
The CBI knows where they stand on their currency, and when they submit an rv for approval by the BIS, they are going to have to fully disclose what they have and how much is out. Until then, this is going to be nothing but a guessing game.
I do not think that Iraq has the least bit of concern about helping the entire world. In fact, I think there are a lot of countries that they would prefer not to help in the least. Perhaps the U.S.A. is one of those.
In my opinion, Iraq is going to do what is best for making a strong Iraq and they aren't going to give a rip about anyone else. The central banks (BIS) is going to make darn sure that they make more money than anyone when this happens.
To that extent, the impact of the rv on the central banks around the world is going to come into play. Since all of these banks are closely tied together, I am satisfied that they are not going to approve an rv in iraq that does not have an overall positive impact around the world.
Thanks for the post. Nice to have a meaningful discussion. Look forward to any replies.