Tlar: Thanks BNA13. I will take another look at it.
Tlar: BNA, your good. It appears to be all there. It will take quite a while to add it all up. I wish that I had figured this out early on. I would be easy to maintain daily once I have a base to work with Your very smart so I would like to ask you, is there an easy way to add these numbers since October of last year or just grunt it out? Either way you have provided me the tool to get my answer. Thanks again.
BNA13: Grunt it out brother.:) If someone figures out an easier way, I hope they tell us.
Hacker: You just need the cash column added correct?
Punisher: You guys are brainiacs...good luck and come rv! Thanks for putting in some extra work for the members guys :) It is appreciated.
Tlar: Hacker, Carrello has offered to build a spread sheet beginning in October of 2012 and to keep it current from there daily. I have graciously accepted her offer and would like to thank her. I don't know how to set up a spread sheet because I am just this side of computer illiterate.
Read More Link On Right
Hacker: Thanks Carrello, you will be quicker than me. I am sure you will share your results. I am very curious
Enorrste: My take on this article is that the CBI is stating that their CURRENT money supply of 33 trillion dinars, which is worth about $30 billion, is covered by 2.5 times with their $80 billion in reserves. In other words, their current money supply has 250% coverage.
The US, in contrast, has about 10% coverage in reserve for all of the dollars around the world.
Having said that, let's assume that Iraq does what it says it will do and withdraws the large denominated notes beginning in January of 2014. We can reasonably suspect that about 7 trillion dinars are outside of the country.
This would mean, then, that they would withdraw about 26 trillion dinars from circulation. Of course these dinars will have to be replaced, as they have said (otherwise they would have NO dinars in the country) and they have stated that they will issue 25 Billion dinars to replace the 26 trillion that they remove.
Now, let's go one step farther. The new money supplied within the country will amount to 25 billion dinars. If, as they say, they allow the VALUE of the dinar to rise to "about $1), then if they have $80 billion worth of reserves at that time, then they will have over 300% coverage of their money supply, in country.
Furthermore, they could allow the dinar to go to $3 per dinar and still have over 100% coverage of their money, keeping them as the strongest currency in the world.
So what happens with the 7 trillion dinars outside the country? They are cashed in by speculators and end up as reserves by the countries that cash them in.
Just as their are trillions of dollars sitting as reserves around the world (i.e., not a concern to our country), similarly there will be trillions of dinars sitting as reserves around the world and Iraq will not need to be concerned about them.
In short, they will never return to haunt Iraq any more than our dollars have returned to haunt the US.
This plan has existed for over 10 years now, and is about to come to fruition. This article is stating that they are now ready, in my opinion.
They will announce a float and draw in the dinars within the country during the next 6 months to 2 1/2 years, and replace them with new small denominated notes as the value rises and the smaller notes become necessary for commerical activity within the country.
They are on record that this will take about 2 years beginning in 2014. Furthermore, they are on record that the issuance of the NEW currency will occur in January of 2014.
IF they need small denoms between now and then (the next 6 months), assuming the float is announced shortly, then they will use the ones that were printed in 2003 and that are sitting at the CBI for that purpose (existing small denoms of the same currency we hold.)
Bottom line: this is talking about the final stages in preparation to unfold the plan. This is ALL GOOD! Enorrste
Punisher: Thank you for that Enorstte. Things are looking good leading up to July 15th. Heck even if is after Ramadan Im still good :)
Tlar: Enorrste, we are pretty close to the same mind set on this. The only difference is the amount that is outside of Iraq. I believe that it is much greater than 7 trillion if we consider what's held by other countries in Asia and Europe.
The US alone has over 7 trillion if we are to believe what Dinar Trade says they have sold since the beginning and if we are to believe the US did an initial currency swap.
I believe the bulk of all the dinars were sold out of country by the Trade Bank of Iraq early on and either sanctioned by the CBI or they intentionally turned a blind eye in order to raise desperately needed hard currency to begin Iraq's rebuilding.
It wasn't until sometime in early 2010 that Shabibi attempted to put a clamp on dinar sales out of country when he made it illegal to bring in or take out large sums of cash. At about the same time the US stopped allowing its soldiers to bring duffle bags of dinar home.
If caught trying to bring it into the US or out of Iraq, it would be confiscated. Up until 2010 it was katy bar the door on dinar sales. At about the same time at the end of 2009 in November, the big banks here in the US mostly stopped selling dinar.
That's about the same time all the scam articles started to appear. At the time to me it looked like a well coordinated effort to stop dinar sales on both sides of the ocean.
Obviously enough had been sold. Maybe to much. Think of it this way. For every trillion dinars sold they would have to have that much more in reserves in order to raise the value.
Enorrste, I may be wrong but I think if there was ever more than 8-10 trillion in Iraq, Syria and Iran, it would surprise me. The rest is out of country IMHO.
Kaperoni: Based on these examples, we then have to hope that the dinar then is "collected" in country. The heavy dollarization going on appears to support that theory.
Enorrste: Tlar, I don't believe there are any "true" numbers regarding the amount of dinars outside the country. However, if you read over my post you will see that my point is that it doesn't matter how many dinars are outside of Iraq since they won't be coming back to Iraq in any case. Therefore, if the number is higher outside the country it just means that the withdrawal process will be that much easier, and quicker.
Zigmeister: We don't know for sure if there was an initial currency swap, it could be a story. I wonder if it matters in the end, because they knew people would invest in dinar. At the end of the day, dinar would land in foreign countrie's reserves when it actually had value.
I did not realize it was in 2009 the scam stories began, along with shutting off the dinar valve. I wonder how many people got out of the dinar since then? It seems to me this was very orchastrated from the beginning to now.
Punisher: When one really stops and thinks about this entire thing, the plan is/was brilliant.
Carrello: Could be, Punisher. There tends to be big plans when big money is involved.
Zigmeister: Here's to a sliver of the pie! *clink*
Carrello: Yes, and braces for the dog. 8)
Tlar: Enorrste, you are probably correct in that we will never really know how much is out of Iraq, but I respectfully disagree that it makes no difference. Depending on what measure Iraq uses to determine value of the dinar, the dinar out of country will probably not be counted as part of M1 or M2.
Revbo did a rough guestimate based on 80 billion in reserves against a total of 28.7 billion (33 trillion dinar) in actual currency value that the CBI has ever had out. Forget that this number has to be less now because of the buy back. In real terms all the dinars out will be in one of two categories.
The first category, in country and circulating dinars in the Middle East, and category two, those out of country buried in central banks around the world. As you have said and I agree, these dinars will not be coming back to Iraq.
They are not considered as part of M1 or M2 as M1 and M2 ignore both reserves in country and out of country as part of their number. It is also my understanding that these numbers also don't look at reserves held in local banks in Iraq to back daily transactions, nor does dinr held overseas have anything to do with inflation.
My point is this, I do not believe Iraq has to consider non circulating currency that resides in central banks around the world when they back their currency. This is dormant capital with no velocity and has no effect on M1 or M2.
I am pretty sure Iraq has to only cover the dinar circulating no matter where it circulates. Today it circulates in Iraq, Iran and Syria because these three countries have accepted the dinar. The number of dinars that are in these three countries IMO is all the dinar that Iraq must back.
IMO, going back to last yea,r we know Iraq had 4 trillion based on what Saleh had said.
I believe that 4 trillion is more than either Syria or Iran has had at anytime because Iraq is the country of origin for dinar. I think we can safely assume both Syria and Iran have had less than four trillion each at their height of trade.
That as why I am so interested to get that number as close as possible but either way, if my premise is correct, then at most Iraq needs to only cover the 12 trillion dinar that were/are circulating in the Middle East. Normally I have ended posts with "I hope I am wrong". This one I would like to end with, I hope I am right.' I love your thoughts on this.
ReVbo: OK, let's take the revised numbers based on circulated dinars, then. (Thanks for the shout out, tlar. You and Kap and Steve are my heros in this thing, and I really appreciate all you do.)
So now, we've got 12 trillion dinars to deal with. By by rough guestimate formula yesterday, we've now got every dinar in circulation covered almost 7 times.
That means, CBI can take the dinar to 174 dinars to the dollar and still be covered 100%. 666% ROI ain't bad, but a far cry from what we're looking for, so let's go back to the fractional reserve standard.
Take the full cover rate and divide it by ten to get 17.4 dinars to the dollar. Now, we're getting somewhere, and we've got 5.74 dinars to the dollar, or a little better than a nickel.
Again, if they change the standard, all bets are off and it just depends on how much of their massive amounts of in-ground assets Iraq is willing to put up as collateral,
because, let's face it, that's really what an asset backing is all about. Under tlar's new numbers, if they were to back this money with, say, just a trillion dollars worth of oil, which is about 6.66% of their proven reserves, with 12 trillion dinars in circulation,
and based on a 10% reserve and the $80 billion in cash they have on hand, we come to almost a dollar ($0.96) per dinar. You can do the math if they put up more of that oil, but you can see where we can get to a pretty darn high rate without much effort. Ordo ex Chao
Punisher: Tlar, lets say you are right about the amount, what is your conclusion.....
Tlar: Punisher, my conclusion is that Iraq only has to cover dinar in Iraq, Syria and Iran. We know when they started the buy back Iraq had 4 trillion dinar circulating as this number was told to us.
The unknown is how much (best guestimate) is still in Iran and Syria. I believe with the following facts we can get a pretty close estimate. Import and export figures between Syria and Iraq and Iran and Iraq.
Granted under normal circumstances it would be hard to determine how much dinar is in these two countries but we have an edge. At the point that Iran and Syria were put under sanctions and Shabibi declared Iraq would no longer accept their currencies in trade or in the Iraqi banking system, all trade was done in dinar and USD.
So as an example if Iran sold 5 billion worth of product to Iraq in 2010 and they bought 3 billion from them, then we can assume that Iran had a 2 billion net gain with most of it being done in dinars.
If this was an isolated year and we knew that Iraq had four trillion dinar and Iran had kept two trillion dinar, the total would be 6 trillion dinar that would be out for 2010 between both countries.
Now lets assume that the bank bought and retired a net trillion dinar during the same period. That would leave a net 5 trillion still considered circulating in the Middle East.
When we throw in multiple years and another country (Syria) the equation becomes more complicated. We need (which I am currently researching) total import exports between Iraq and Syria, and Iraq and Iran for the multiple years we are researching and we need the amount of USD sold and the amount of dinars retired.
Carrello graciously put together the bank figures (dollars sold going back to October 2012). I am attempting to put together the import export figures. I will massage them and see what comes out of it.
As I said in the above post, I believe the number of dinars that Iraq must cover in order to do an RV is much less than we have thought. The CBI has maximized the potential for RV by cleaning up the markets. Value of the dinar is impacted every time they sell another dollar at auction.
My goal is to roughly try to determine how many real dinars are still out. The challenge is that this is a moving target. Iran and Iraq buy from and sell to each other daily and the bank is still buying back dinar.
So I have arbitrarily chosen October first 2012 as the start date through today. I believe if we can see reasonable numbers that are somewhat close, we will be able to make some conclusions as to where we are in the process. If not, it will be my exercise in futility.
ReVbo: Woops, meant to say 5.74 cents to the dinar, not 5.74 dinars to the dollar.
Punisher: Thanks for the answer Tlar. We should all have some idea of where we are from your findings hopefully. I personally believe we are close from all the news over the last two weeks. The news has been so postive unlike anything I have seen in this investment from the over 3 years I have been in this.
Tobyboy: Tlar, I did some calculation the cash dollars on auctions Oct - Dec 2012 $1,464,501,000
Jan-Mar 2013 $1,623,380,000 ( April ) $1,127,646,000 ( May ) $1,164,559,000 )
June 1 to 18, 2013 $727,200,000 Total $6,107,286,000 Oct 2012 to June 18 2013
Hope this helps you this is the cash amts only, Tobyboy
Tlar: Thanks toyboy. That is pretty much the same number Carrello came up with.
Tobyboy: Tlar Good Notice how the sales are really big for this month of June with the cash sales. Should be getting ready to RV this thing real sooon . :)
Punisher: Tobyboy, looks to me an rv is imminent.