HandOverFist: Gosh, Tlar, what would we do without you? You are a wealth of information and I appreciate you so much. :)
I remember, after reading what you wrote, that "Wang Dang" spoke about the U.S. printing the 2 language currency and, in error, did not put the Kurdish language on it. So some of the $80 million that the U.S. Taxpayers paid to print the currency was wasted, unless used to "tied them over" until the 3 language currency is printed (or if printed, then used). What a bunch of jokers in our government, too!
Again, thanks Tlar for all the information. :)
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BlueyesinLevis: In any case... what Russ wrote cuts right to the heart of the matter. The USD in use IS the smalls. I could not care less when they bring out a new Lower Denomination of the De La Rue currency.
-Tne CBI is interested in creating a vibrant, thriving banking sector. Getting the citizens into the banks is the goal... going digital is the goal... getting rid of the triple zeros is the goal...a strong currency of value recognozed internationaly is the goal.
-Having Non-Banking citizens trading in hoarded triple zero notes.. and then hoarding the new LD's is NOT the goal. The CBI is not interested in printing a ton of the new LD's.. they are interested in getting the citizens into the banks and using smart cards.
If the only way a citizen can benefit from a lifted rate.... is by depositing his triple zero notes into a bank in a newly created account, getting a smart card.. and a few hundred USD as walking around money.... THAT process creates INSTANT CUSTOMERS...
Releasing the new LD's simultaneously with the new rate... does NOT create instant customers.... does NOT create a cashless society... and does NOT flood the Iraqi banks with capital.
-Russ hit the nail on the head.. they already have the smalls in their economy.. and it is the USD. All we are concerned with is the lifting of the foreign exchange rate of the NID...
-The flag, the anthem, the new currrency, the pride of the citizens... I dont give a tinker's damn about. I am so sick of the lies and the treason and the betrayal and the corruption and the absolute absence of integrity.... I will take my profit and move on long before the LD's see the light of day..
-And for the rest of my life.. I will only allow people into my circle who are four square and bedrock solid. During the rest of my life.. anytime someone screws me over, attempts to take advantage, or lies to my face... I will accuse them of acting like an Iraqi... and they will be deleted from my life. Kindness is a virtue, integrity counts, and sincerity matters.
BlueyesinLevis: And I reckon Kap and Tlar are correct.. they most likely DO have the LD's from the original batch on hand locked down.. but I honestly think they will be holding back on the release until they get many or most of the citizens into the banks first.
Kaperoni: I think we can say very confidently, the new notes are printed and shipped to Iraq.
Darjohn: Thanks Mr. Kap. i have been waiting for this topic to come up !!! (lol) ( Temp on the island today, 90 with a lot of sun( life is good !!)
Tlar: One of the reasons that it is almost a must that Iraq has printed a new currency is because if they introduce the already printed two language notes, the CBI has to realize that this would be a very temporary fix to cover a raise in rate only.
The two language notes that were printed at the same time that the large notes we have were, also would not have the necessary security features to stop counterfeiting.
Iran would be printing them a distributing them within a couple of weeks of their introduction. The bank under Shabibi was probably well aware of this as most likely Turki is.
Using these 2 language notes would have to be a very temporary stop gap, not a long term solution. This is why I believe Shabibi, last year was so vehement on printing a new, non counterfeitable currency and why he quickly agreed with Kurdistan to do so.. He was supposedly ready to go toward the end of the year and had said that the new currency would be introduced in January.
That said two things to me. The first was the bills are printed and second, he was planning a big change in rate. We know the smalls are useless unless the rate is sufficiently high enough to warrant their distribution. The CBI learned this lesson when they introduced a 25 dinar coin that people ended up giving to their kids as a toy and the CBI ended up melting the rest.
Also the 50 dinar note should have never been released. Through trial and err the CBI knows you can not introduce a bill that has so little value that the population won't use it. I'm in total agreement with Kap. The new smalls are somewhere in Iraq being kept under wraps until introduced.
It is the only thing IMHO that will stop this crisis with the dinar. The bank would have to be pretty stupid not to have seen this crisis coming and not to have made the "nuclear" option available if it comes to that.
Tlar: Handoverfist, I read this about the currency of Iraq being contracted and paid for by the US, on the US Treasury website. If you go to their site you will find a wealth of information on Iraqi.
I looked for the currency swap as it does make reference to it, but I could not find any numbers of how much. These figures are not available on their site.
If you go to Foreign Currency Reserve holdings by our Treasury, they do not list any restricted or exotic currencies in their holdings or at least I was not able to find a way to dig it up. Mainly they list things like the Yen, Sterling Pound, Euro etc.
Maybe somebody with enough time can dig through the layers of crap on the site and find the answer to this. The site mentions more than one currency swap. The other thing that was interesting was how foreign currency introduced in the US banks ends up in the Treasury and the only banks authorized to sell to the US.
As I recall only Bank of American and I think Case are the only two entry points for foreign currency to the Treasury. I could be wrong about Chase as its been years since I visited their site.
What I do remember is that it was only two or three banks that are allowed to sell directly to the Treasury (points of entry). B of A is definitely a "point of entry" bank. What I took from this is that any bank dealing in foreign currencies in the US has to sell that currency to a "point of entry" bank who then sells it to the Treasury.
Unless they are a point of entry bank they can not deal or sell directly to the treasury any foreign currency. The mechanics of how this works is a good thing to understand especially if it comes to pass that we will be selling large amounts of foreign currency.
Punisher: That new money must have been sitting in the bank vaults for over a year now.
C36: Call me a doubting Thomas, but until I see the new currency, there is no new currency. There is much discussion about new currency, but that is all that is, discussion.
And... as far as this statement: "So, we had better hope that the currency is sitting in a warehouse somewhere, and that probably why our troops are concentrated in certain areas."
You might as well be blowing in the wind. The troops in that region are there for strategic reasons supporting the War on Terrorism. They have nothing to do with Iraq's monetary policy or for that matter, the GOI.
Now, I too hope that this will be resolved soon. I have doubts but also have faith that it will happen. I would like to see the dinar move in any direction else it is becoming stagnant and will begin to fester into a serious economic disease in Iraq.
"The old dreams were good dreams; they didn't work out but I'm glad I had them." -Robert Kincaid
Carrello: Who do you think is protecting the currency? Maliki's police or Maliki's military? Maybe Iran has sent their guys in. Yeah, that's the ticket. Iran.
Sadie: I agree with C36, I think the last 'new' money was printed in 2003......Last year when Shabibi wanted to print new currency, as usual they couldn't agree on the 'historical pictures' to be printed, and that was supposed to be done in Sept. for release in January. (Oct. Shabibi was sacked)
Then we saw the articles about the Printing company in the UK, complaining that this huge contract they had, had been cancelled...(never said it was or wasn't IQD)......
Then this year around Feb. when they started talking again about deleting zero's, they said the cost to print the new denoms, would be in the million$....and was unneccessary "at this time"........JMO, but I think, once they got off Shabibi's schedule, not a lot has moved forward, as far as printing of the dinar.
BlueyesinLevis: I guess I must amend my last post. I Guess Kap and Tlar both think the new 3 language notes are printed. Me? I dont know.. but I expect they at least have the 2 language notes.... but again.. like Russ said... with full dollarization and a lifted rate.... the USD becomes the smalls... until they decide to bring out the LD's.
Joeg: My opinion...the low denoms currently in inventory are the "old" NID, and the "new" dinar with 3 languages has not been printed. If the RV/float happens now, they can introduce the "old" NID until the "new" 3 languages eventually gets printed.
I don't know why Kap thinks we can confidently say that the "new" 3-language notes are printed and shipped to Iraq. Whatever his reasoning, I don't believe it. When Shabibi said he was "ready," that did not include the "new" 3-language notes; he was relying on issuing the "old" NID low denoms.
There is no "new" currency yet (i.e., to replace the original NID from 2003). I'll bet anyone that they still haven't even agreed on what pictures and words to put on it.
The low denoms in inventoryare those "old" NID that were printed back in 2003 (or whenever) when the NID was printed to replace the old Sadaam currency. You can disagreee and cite articles and theories and opinions, but it's all just opinion. We all have opinions, and no one is more right than another. In the end, we'll who's right.
Regarding whatever troops might be sent to Iraq or already in Iraq.... Whatever they're there for, it's certainly not to protect any "new" currency. That's for certain.
To misquote the XX beer guy, "Stay hopium free, my friends."
Punisher: I think I have to agree with everything you just said.
mystic137: NOTHING is certain when it comes to this investment!!
Russ: Yip Blue..that's the point..the $US...I call the Bridge....Is the smalls. (We are all used to the term. "Bridging finance" to take a project from conception stage to completion. LOL)
The truth is They can sit on the $ for some time and the currency aspects of every day life will settle and function better than it has for some time. In fact the slower the better for an education of the people point of view and will soften the possibilities of people getting hurt.
my key simple point is there has to be a logistical on the street delete the zeros implimentation of the project, before we will ever see the IQD value increased. That I now consider done! Yay.
Sometimes I think of it like this. They first have to delete the 3 zeros from the currency, before they can raise the 3 zeros from the Value.
They will now, "in the coming days" bring the IQD value to the Bridge rate..Any less that 1 to 1 is a unwinding of what has been a very challenging but cleverly implimented project. (Removal of the 3 zero notes)
Im guessing but to hold it at $1 for a while to let the dust settle and roll out the lower notes before a float would be perfect. No hurry required. We just want the next step......And guess what? ......The session is right for it...... Just my simple opinion. :P
HandOverFist: Russ, What you said, in this thread, makes soooooo much sense. It absolutely ought to be done this way. It looks like that's what they're doing. You know the saying, If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck, then...............
However, I have to remember this is Iraq..........before I get my hopes up too high. LOL Also, Tlar, thanks again for all your information.
ZenMav: Good to see this being discussed. It is basically what Kap discussed on Sept 2012 CC which he said was not going to be recorded, his first discussion about the staging rate plan.
Punisher: Russ and Handoverfist, it is the perfect storm right now. Will something happen, who knows.