_This is just a thought, an opinion based on currency trading. I see and do currency trading everyday and understand a bit about how currency is traded.
So let me put out a thought that I discussed in the chat today. Plz keep in mind its only an opinion and possible option that could take place.
Things we know for sure.
1. CBI is moving forward with the plans to remove the 000's.
2. The banking system has and continues to be built up in Iraq, especially the electronic side of it.
3. Iraq is still in Chapter 7.
4. The GOI looks like they are about to restructure to a majority GOI.
5. Article 140, oil and gas law is soon to be passed.
6. We are only speculating on the pending revaluation. There is no concrete evidence of it, other then the CBI stating they are going to make the Dinar stronger. They never really came out and said how they are going to do it. They have said redenomination and many articles also have said it. I believe its a revaluation done in a different way. Let me explain. Please add your comments.
7. The forex has been continually updating information and charts on their websites. Although you can not trade the IQD right now. Why would they spend the time updating information if the IQD was not going to be traded?
8. The CBI is separate from the GOI and can act on their own
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Suppose that Iraq is removed completely from chapter 7 within the next few weeks?
I believe now that in order for the currency to be traded on the forex they absolutely need to be removed from chapter 7.
Now lets also suppose that the new GOI is formed and Art 140 is passed.
Now the stage is complete set for the IQD to be traded. Banks are finished connecting and testing, GOI is formed, 140 passed, and Iraq is out of chapter 7.
Here is an option that might happen.
1. They continue to move forward in removing all 000's within the next year.
2. They then allow the current rate to enter into the forex for trading.
3. This will cause the value of the IQD to climb and the market determines the current value daily until the 000's are removed. At which time the CBI releases a new rate.
4. Day traders and institutional traders buy and sell trillions of dollars daily and do cause the value of any currency to rise and fall.
5. Iraq will be able to control inflation this way since they will also trade daily.
6. The Iraqi citizens will also be able to trade and begin to see their currency rise in value and start using it.
7. As the currency value rises through market trading it puts less strain on the economy and revaluation.
8. Keep in mind NO currency ever goes straight up. It fluctuates daily. Traders use pivot points and other indicators to trade. It gives them buy and sell points.
9. Now this continues until the CBI is ready to release its new rate that the IMF agrees to.
10. When the new rate is released they will not have to pay out as much on the exchange rate to other currency since the market has caused the Dinar to rise in value daily. Its a win win for both sides while Iraq continues to rebuild its infrastructure. The USD will no longer be needed on the Iraq streets.
11. If it is done this way, and I say if, then the Iraq economy would not be shocked as badly as if they came out with a high exchange rate. They would not have to pay out as much and stand to make even more money. The oil and gas law provides cash for its citizens while the currency rises in value according to their GDP. Right now they have little to export to the world until the infrastructure is rebuilt
12. I do not believe there was ever a country who was ever totally destroyed that came out with a 1 to 1 or higher revaluation until the country was rebuilt.
13. One other thing and I am sure many have heard it. Iraq can not come out with a low rate otherwise investors would buy up the country.. LMAO come on it does not work that way and can never happen. Who ever said such a foolish thing must have been drinking or smoking something that caused thinking damage. LOL LOL sorry but I had to put that in. It can never happen and if it could then why has not other countries with very low currency values and great resources been bought up by investors?
The more I think about it the more it becomes clear that the IQD will rise slowly until the CBI is ready to raise the exchange rate much higher.
I know many are hoping for a different outcome as I am, but we need to be prepared for any outcome. Shabibi did say he was going to make the dinar stronger and he is doing that, although not as much as we would like to see it.
In either case things are looking very good to one day our investment will bring us a nice return. Hang in there and plz be patient.