Tlar: Don't dispair Sherry. Remember the removal of the zeros project is at least a one year, start to finish project. I personally do not believe that they will wait this long to start. Abbas is giving his opinion only as indicated in the first paragraph of the first article when he says "probably". Although being on the Finance Committee, it is not his decision to make.
Just follow the CBI/IMF news. The next round of articles will be more telling. If they start to print the new smalls by the first of the year would tell me that remove the zeros is going forward the first half of the year (Jan-Jun). They most lilely would not print this currency a year in advance.
Article Of Discussion :
Member of the Finance Committee: the current crisis, the central bank does not affect the project to delete the zeros .. And will be implemented through the year (2014)
LESLIE: The revalue of the currency will need to precede the deletion of the zeros (an introduction of new small notes) Maybe they want to "float" the value for a year prior to deleting the zeros. As I understand it...they are two separate events
KELLYSUE: Thank you DA gang for all the insight!! I'm with Carrello, it is great to see articles again on "deleting zeros, timelines and printing new currency." Also, with Leslie.....in that Kap has stated time and time again, the RV/Float will have to occur WAY before the new currency is released. "As dinar investors, we will be long finished before the new currency is released. Great news!!"Oh Happy Day!!"
Read More Link On Right
KAPERONI: Kelly and Leslie are right on.....Here is what you are all missing. Is in order for them to "delete the zeros" the dinar should be 1 to $1 or greater. IMO, the float will begin soon which will begin the process of raising the value of the dinar. If they are going to start 2014 using the dinar on the investment side of the budget, this gives them ample time to float it up until that day.
SCALP: I just can't let go shabby saying new currency has to come out at the start of a year or it will be an accounting nightmare....if it's too much of a nightmare for the likes of shabby its going to be impossible for anyone else to try it. Makes me a little bit nervous that we are trying to make jan 2013 and then if not we wait a whole year!
Float needs to start now to get currency out by 1/1/13.....so I think its more likely we are looking at a straight rv.
Im nervous man, I always had hope that they could just do this thing when ever they were ready, any time of the year, but since shabby saying that I don't believe they can any more :(
Pressure is on and im feeling it, if we dont see anything early jan or before I think we all got a years holiday.
Someone please show me something that counters shabby's opinion on that it needs to start at the beginining of a new year/fiscal year, not suring it.
I really need to see it to chillax again.....I feel damn nervous!
before this M crapola with the CBI I knew we were there, but now.............
Not trying to be a debbie downer guys, I just cant get that out of my head and jan 2013 isn't that far away now.
Arts say currency is printing so I still have hope for 1/1/13 and a straight rv....but many here say its going to float, if so, surely we need to see it floating already...like now to get the currency out for the start of the year.. Panic panic panic :P
Hopefully this accounting nightmare is already worked out in the 2013 budget like arts claim the zeros project is included....that sure makes it look very good for 1/1/13 or before for float.
TLAR: Scalp, you and I are of the same mindset. Shabibi arrived at the float decision IMHO, because the government fought everything he tried to do. He was afraid to go against the government. By now we should realize that he is not coming back. So as the players have changed so to, may have the plan.
We know the original Shabibi plan was to remove 3 zeros off the nominal rate effectivly bringing the value of the currency to .86 per dinar. We know all preparations to make this change were done in October of 2011. We know he did not pull the trigger as we have come to realize he could not.
Shabibi is gone and now the articles coming out are again referring to removing the 3 zeros. We know that the CBI is firmly in charge of the contracting to print the new currency as a result of the Finance Committee passing what they believed to be their resonsibility and right to give this decision to the CBI.
We know that the designs had been picked along with a printer because Shabibi had said they were ready to start printing in September with the target being January 1st to start to remove the zeros.
We also know that Shabibi made a successful huge push in his last two months as head of the bank to remove as much dinar as possible. This removal was the best kind because even though they had been removing the 3 zero notes since last year, all that was truly being done back then was just to replace these big notes for smaller notes leaving the same amount of the dinars still in circulation.
In the last few months he took advantage of the program rate/street rate to litterly remove trillions of dinar off the street and replaced them with USD. This actually reduced the money in circulation, not just replacing the dinars with smaller denoms. I've not seen any numbers of how much was actually retired but is you consider the bank was buying 250-357 billion dinars a day, that means they were removing at least a trillion dinars every 3-4 days during this period.
Remember for each million USD the CBI sold they receive 1,189 billion dinars. So assuming there really was 28 trillion dinar out as stated by the CBI a year ago and that Shabibi had initiated laws to make it illegal to take large sums of dinar out of the country, effectively nuetralizing monetary growth, and assuming that all 28 trillion were really in circulation, a portion of which was not just on pallets at the CBI, Shabibi did an excellant job of cleaning the currency market up in preparation for the removal of the zeros. Remember the plan was to go to 1 to 1.
So every dollar the CBI sold they received 1189 dinars back. When the RV took place shabibi would have been able to buy back each dollar he just sold for 1 dinar. So where are we?
Everything remains as it was before the removal of Shabibi, but now the government is firmly behind the bank even giving back some of the powers they usurped while Shabibi was in power.
think we are still on target despite all the articles saying next April when the new government takes office or 2014 or whatever. I think the momentum is there. Article by article I see we are back to the removal of the zeros on day one, and I see the steps being taken to do this after the first of the year, 2013. I also think Turkri will he permanently assigned as the govenor of the bank.
He is learning on the job. What I don't see is Maliki being removed by any vote of no confidence which believe it or not, I feel maybe a good for our investment at this time even if it is not good for Iraq. All of the above - IMHO.
TLAR: Part 2 I am not making predictions of any kind and I don't believe I have ever made any predictions. I only read and interpret what I see and respect others opinions as equal to my own.
There are some sites that are quoting me as a info guru. I assure you I am not and quite honestly do not like being quoted by these people because these sites do not print what I say in total.
They only print parts that fit their mold for their websites trying to sensationalize them. I would ask you to please stop this. I rexpect all of your opinions as I would expect you to respect mine. I am not 100% right as are none of you, so please I ask you to see my opinions for what they are, opinions only. I have no contacts and no special knowledge. I'm just an opinionated SOB, nothing more. Thanks for listening.
This situation is worse than an arubics cube. If you can definitely figure this out please let me know. Truth is theire is not bad opinion until these guys RV. After that those who want to stick around and grade the opinions on who was right or wrong, can hang around to do so. Me, I'm out of here 4 minutes after the RV. and quite honostly
KAPERONI: Just a reminder that both the WB and IMF expect Iraq to be a Doner state in 2014. Had to see that, if they don't start now making economic changes.
TLAR: Chris, the goal of the bank has always been to reduce the cash in circulation. People in Iraq aren't real smart but that does not make them stupid. Shabibi set up 10 banks to do the switch to the new currency and he bought 10 de la Rue machines to detect counterfeit currency as it came in.
He also gave strict instructions to these banks to take their time with each person coming in to switch, to set up bank accounts. This assumes two things. The first is that the average Iraqi will need a bank account and that he will not want to carry that much money around in his pockets.
I ask you if you were an Iraqi, would you like to take your excess 25,000 dinar not to the bank, switch it for new smalls and carry it around with you? I believe the average Iraqi will not because of fear of theft.
So he will most likely deposit the bulk of this money into the new account just specifically set up for him and only carry around a very small portion of this.
If the same Iraqi just exchanged that 25000 dinar note, the government is estimating (hoping) that he will then start using the banks which is another stated goal which is supported by the banks desire to get him to start using credit cards and potentially start banking by phone. 25 billion is less the 10% of 26 trillion, meaning the bank expects that the other 90% will be deposites in the bank. The 25 billion is an estimation and a desired number that they hope will be left in circulation.
IMHO Chris, this is not a lop. 25 billion has been the stated goal of the RV since the beginning as is reducing mistakes in accounting sheets, making change in the street, gettigng rid of USD, etc.
RVing makes sense and most in government are coming on board. The smart ones are already there. Also remember Shabibi stated over and over that the zeros will be removed off the nominal value (exchane rate).
SCALP: Easiest explanation Chris is (now lets see if i can get it from my head onto paper, i have this trouble a lot :P ;) that the large denoms will be destroyed leaving just smaller denoms on the streets and they will need less denoms to buy what they want because the rate will be different which means the prices of goods will be different and lets also add that they also want these guys to start using the banks...ie debit/credit cards....and not pay for everything with a whell barrow full of dinar.
New smaller denoms + new rate + new pricing + new banking services = Less money in circulation, less money on the streets. Instead of needing 2 vans full of dinar to buy that new car they can now do it with the new higghher valued currency or buy it using their credit card.
Hope that got out of my head right, it's late and im tired...its summin like that. 2 years ago I could have explained this so much easier than I can now, its pretty hard to wrap your head around, you need to look at it as not from the outside of iraq but from the inside and as an iraqi citizen. it's very complicated and warps my brain just trying to write it down. im sure i will read this tomorrow when im a bit more alert and wonder wtf I was on about :lol: Im that tired that I cant even find that post by Chris, time for bed me thinks :o
FULL ARTICLE & LINK
Ali Abdullah - 11/28/2012 - 10:48 AM | Hits: 62
Ruled out a member of the Finance Committee MP / National Alliance / Amin Hadi Abbas, the impact of the current crisis, the central bank on the project to delete the three zeroes from the national currency, stressing its implementation and probably will be based during the year (2014).
Abbas said in a press statement: The device of the central bank a large and complex, as it contains multiple sections, and a large number of financial experts and economists, therefore, strategic projects are not linked to a particular person in the bank (governor).
He added: that the draft reform of the national currency when three zeroes deleted them based sacking will not be affected by the Governor of the Central Bank because it is a strategic project general matter of the Iraqi people and the national economy.
He guessed Abbas: implementation of the project during the year (2014) as the central bank said no intention to implement the project to delete the zeros in (2013), calling for the nomination of a personal professional with news high financial management central bank to maintain the stability of the Iraqi dinar, and balance the sovereign foreign currency.