Tnman: RAMBLINGS OF AN OLD MAN 12/24/2013
The way I see making this happen is for me to say what I am about to say. I'm always wrong. Hee Hee
I just don't see them releasing this today (Tuesday, Christmas eve) and setting appointments for Christmas day. It is possible but I don't think so. Will they release it Christmas day? Who would know?
Yeah, there would be a few that would know, maybe you and me but the masses will be enjoying Christmas with family and friends. Release on the 26th? Counting the 26th, that allows 5 days of the 5 to 7 days that they estimate to complete the currency exchange but not the 7 days.
Regardless, not all 5,000,000 would get their currency exchanged by the end of the year. There will be those that didn't know the bell had been rung and there will always be the laggards that will always be late.
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Will this create a problem for the IRS that some exchanged in 2013 while others exchanged in 2014? Will those that get theirs done before the end of the year have a different tax situation than those that wait until after the first of the year?
If the tax situation will be different, it will certainly put a burden on the IRS because they will have to do a higher number of audits to see which rate should be paid.
Then, there are the questions regarding "things" that have to be done before the end of the year. I have seen no written confirmation that Iraq is going to be inducted into the WTO on the 28th. Well, I have seen a lot of written speculation but no “official” utterances saying that this is a firm date.
It has always been stated that Iraq must have an internationally traded currency before they join the WTO. I do believe they have an internationally traded currency. Has it increased in value? We have been told emphatically that it has.
While I repeat my previous comment in another article, I haven’t seen any written articles that have come out of Iraq that tells us what the rate is at the present time. The CBI site still tells us it is the same ole rate that it has been for a long, long time. And, the dealers here in the US are still selling at the same rate as always.
I heard a comment about “contracts”…not the contract rate…contracts for goods and services that will have to be rewritten if we do not have an RV prior to the end of the year. I know nothing of these contracts but if this is true, that would put more emphasis on getting this done this year; However,
rewriting contracts and signing new papers doesn’t seem to be a problem. They have done it numerous times so that shouldn’t be a deterrent to waiting until next year.
Back to whether Iraq has or has not increased the value of their currency…if it is to be believed that the IMF has released the revaluation (which I do not believe) for several countries, then it would follow that Iraq has, in fact, increased the value.
If it is to be believed that certain people around the world are exchanging at a higher rate ( I have my doubts) then it would follow that the dinar has increased in value. We see no credible evidence that this is true. It has all been hear/say.
If the argument is valid that the ones exchanging are the “elites,” I have calculated that between all of the elites and their friends in the US that have exchanged added to all of the elites and their friends all over the world that have exchanged, that only leaves two people that have not exchanged and that is you and me.
Do I really think this RV is going to happen? I really have no idea. I have thought for 5 years that it will. I have argued the point over and over that it will. It makes sense that it will…even more so that it must happen.
There are mounds of evidence that it must happen. We have been told repeatedly that all is done, there are no hold-ups and that everyone is in agreement and everyone is ready and that the WORLD needs for this to be done.
That only leaves the questions, “why has it not been done” and “when will it be done”?
When I started this, I was going to give my thoughts as to when this is going to happen. As I typed more and more, the more I got balled up and all I can think is that is can be anytime.
There are arguments any way you slice it. But, with all considerations, I now think it will be after the first of the year before this is done. Then, I think a lot of the pressure to get this done will have subsided.
They will take even more time to think about it. They will change more requirements, sign more papers, turn it back over to the UST, arrest more people, fire more people, sign even more papers and the music goes round and round, whoo hoo, and it comes out here. (For those that think I have gone off my rocker…that is part of a song from yesteryear).
I’ll go out on a limb and say, go enjoy the holidays. Move along, there is nothing happening here. As we used to say in the industry, “the trouble is leaving here just fine”. You will see a lot of back and forth but you will not see the RV until next year. That’s my opinion…oughtta be yours. lol