Reader Comments On IMF & G20 Moving Forward On Plan B Part 2 Part 1
Chris Peters DECEMBER 16, 2014 AT 2:05 AM I’m glad I stumbled onto this blog. Quite fascinating discussions of events that seem almost designed to confuse and mislead the public. You’re doing good work at cutting through all the layers of indirection, J.C.
So plan B it is but that still leaves many questions unanswered. I’d start by questioning your statement of “blatant disregard toward the US treasury and executive” by Congress.
To the contrary the evidence available through the press suggests the Obama administration did not lift a finger (nor did Treasury) to fight to include the IMF reforms in the funding bill passed over the weekend.
To the contrary, they expended tremendous energy to make sure that an obscure provision benefitting the big banks profits remained in the bill, despite heroic efforts by Elizabeth Warren and a few others to remove it.
But I never heard one administration official propose a rider to include IMF quota legislation.
This contrasts with the March 2014 funding bill, when there was an effort by Treasury and Executive branch to include the IMF reforms.
So what changed? It would be easy to say “the fix was in.”
The idea that China is behind it seems plausible, but I still have a hard time reconciling this.
Also there was a story out that one of the two US House reps who changed his vote to allow the rule to pass last week (and save the bill) was actually lied to by his own leadership. He was promised that the “CRomnibus” would be pulled in return for voting yes on the rule.
I don’t recall that level of deception and outright skullduggery being used even by Boehner or Pelosi against the other party, let alone one of their own members.
I can only conclude then that there is a level of desperation on the part of the banks that may be much larger than even we imagine.
It fits the general scenario of a manufactured liquidity event on the horizon, with the goal of preparing the public to accept dramatic changes in the global financial system.
But we just don’t know how this is going to play out yet. The only thing I’m confident in is that the level of corruption and fraud across all layers of government has never been higher.
Matt McBride (@MattMhmmcbride) DECEMBER 16, 2014 AT 4:57 AM Great post Chris.
It definitely is a complex game of 3D chess with many aspects that us “outsiders” can only speculate and interpret using the information we are fed and misled.
I believe the priority for the moneychangers was to have the derivative laws passed smoothly and without much attention on the 11th hour of the IMF reform deadline.
This law will be the key WMD to be used in the current system destruction.
I figure, if you want to use a WMD, don’t have it sitting in your drawer for months, giving time for someone to stumble on it and disrupt its use in your grand plan.
Did it seem strange to you the simplicity with which the budget passed compared to the Kabuki theatre of the last few years?
The IMF reforms put forward to fund the Ukraine in March were attached to the Tax law, which was always going to be unpopular and struggle to pass.
Putting all aside, it seems like the Plan B train has left the station.
Daneackerman DECEMBER 16, 2014 AT 5:03 PM Hey everyone. What does the Ruble crash foretell of the changing system? Russia has been a key player/distraction of sorts so its interesting to see. Perhaps the beginning of change? “Russian Rate Jump Fails to Stop Ruble Crash”
tristero888 DECEMBER 16, 2014 AT 11:43 PM good time to buy russian bonds? ;~)
Matt McBride (@MattMhmmcbride) DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 1:00 AM Even if they paid 50% interest rates, unfortunately you would not been part of privileged few who has this sovereign bond toilet paper switched with SDRs :)
Daneackerman DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 1:01 AM Lol. Thx.
Matt McBride (@MattMhmmcbride) DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 12:46 AM Hi Dane,
Russia is onboard with the IMF SDR, however, the bankers may want to leash (or at least give the “perception of”) or replace Putin in the interim.
A possibility is he will be sacrificed and replaced with someone more “flexible” to the ways of the BIS. However I am not completely convinced.
Easiest way to do this would be through rapid currency and wealth devaluation of the oligarchs and military hierarchy.
On a separate note, as JC has mentioned Oil has sparked the domino destruction of the emerging markets. The only lender of last resort for the EM’s will be the IMF (however at the moment their reserves are tapped out because the US has failed to pass the reforms).
The Ruble/Russian implosion will help speed up the coordinated collapse.
Putin and cold war 2.0 is just white noise to distract the zerohedge masses.
Daneackerman DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 1:04 AM
Oh wow, I actually got it. Thank you. Makes perfect sense or cents:)
tristero888 DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 3:27 AM B-I-N-G-O
“The only lender of last resort for the EM’s will be the IMF (however at the moment their reserves are tapped out because the US has failed to pass the reforms).”
this is perhaps where & how the RMB and “The Shiny” fit into the picture. JC’s hypothesis of US giving up Europe for ME also plays right in, giving that it’s oil that’s the trigger (especially when considering what was traded for oil in the ME before the birth of the petrodollar).
makes perfect sense why the Four Nords are scrambling to get their gold back toots sweet.
tristero888 DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 3:34 AM p.s. always wondered how they were gonna get the EM’s to play ball with The Plan after the IMF’s sordid history in the so-called third world.
nothin’ like a full-blown currency crisis to slap the peons in line.
Daneackerman DECEMBER 17, 2014 AT 6:41 PM Hey guys, today Russia is saying that there economy won’t fall but Ukraine’s might.
“A deep chill over the Russian economy as the rouble continues to plunge. Russia has been hit by the prospect of a new round of sanctions and weak oil prices. In an interview with France 24, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russia can stand the heat.
(SOUNDBITE) (English) RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER, SERGEI LAVROV, SAYING: “Well, of course it hurts.
We don’t take any pleasure from sanctions. But it’s not our problem.” While the top economic adviser at the White House spoke of a Russian economy on the brink — Lavrov says not so.
(SOUNDBITE) (English) RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER, SERGEI LAVROV, SAYING: “But I can assure you that Russia would not only survive, but would come out stronger out of this. He also says it is not Russia that needs to fear for its future — but Ukraine.
(SOUNDBITE) (English) RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER, SERGEI LAVROV, SAYING: “Never. Economic meltdown could happen to a small country. It can happen even to a big country like Ukraine, and it’s basically almost there.”
The U.S. and Europe imposed sanctions after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and Kremlin backing for pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.
The conflict has become the worst crisis between Russia and the West since the Cold War. And there may be more to come.
The White House says President Barack Obama will authorize a new round of sanctions by the end of the week — although Secretary of State John Kerry signaled that if Russia makes constructive moves toward reducing tensions in Ukraine — some of those sanctions could be eased.”
If Ukraine ends up needing bailed out again doesn’t the US already have an aid package ready with the 2010 IMF reform attached to it?
If so could it be fast tracked through congress should the need arise….say sometime in January after Washington’s next round of sanctions take effect?
Sorry for being a pain just trying to think outside the box:)
Its also strange that the US is attempting to normalize relations with Cuba since Cuba is an extension of Russia whom we are applying sanctions to…….
daneackerman DECEMBER 16, 2014 AT 5:32 PM Here’s another interesting article. Seems your foresight was pretty darned good JC. Thank you for providing me piece of mind.
Live: Across the Globe, Wild Swings for Markets
And poor Ukraine still suffering. Here is an excerpt from the article that seemed like something I have read here on PoM or Philosophy of Metrics.
“Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note today:
As the main goal of the program is urgent stabilization, debt restructuring is unlikely to be on the table until the end of 2015, as we anticipate the IMF will persevere with the program and wait for the macro environment to stabilize.
If the IMF is unable to stabilize the economy, reprofiling of Eurobonds with no major haircuts would still be likely at year-end 2015 or 2016, but it is worth trying to improve the macro first, in our view. Even partial stabilization would be a step forward and reassure investors that further stability would take place.
The maturity structure of Ukraine’s external payments shows that in our baseline scenario the country will mainly face liquidity – not debt-sustainability – issues.
Therefore, we would expect reprofiling of maturing Eurobonds with small or no haircuts to face and coupons.”
Notice that Bank of America and Merrill Lynch believe that Ukraine is going to have liquidity problems. But this sentence made a lot of sense “as we anticipate the IMF will persevere with the program and wait for the macro environment to stabilize.” Wait for the macro environment to stabilize……
toknowyourenemy DECEMBER 16, 2014 AT 8:53 PM Isn’t Jan. 6th, 2015 the ‘drop dead date’? If so, I wonder if the actions commencing can be recalled or redacted or is the ball in the air?