10-11-2012 | (Voice of Iraq) - - Baghdad / term
Conducted Foundation term cultural symposium through the Internet on Saturday, and Devt which Dr. Shabibi former central bank governor, and was attended by a number of bankers and experts in the field of economy and media multiple, and symposium was talk about the issue of the central bank and the charges leveled by the government of Hbibi of corruption financial and administrative especially with regard to the issue of money laundering and currency auction in which the central bank.
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Tlar: All Maliki has to do is not rescind the arrest warrants and that creates a Mexican standoff.
Shabibi will mostly likely never return to Iraq and most certainly will never be re-instated. Maliki would never let him stand trial. He would consider it too messy and too much would ultimately be revealed.
Shabibi will continue to complain from afar but will soon fade away if
one: there is a new governor picked and , two: the IMF attempts to work with him. Checkmate.
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Tlar Continues: I hope I'm wrong. I still see hope though for this investment. I will use a cliché. It is always darkest just before it's dawn. For years we have waited to see major legislation go through.
Finally Article 140, the HCL, the Budget for 2013 and the termination of the ration card in March of next year are all very encouraging to me. If we read any articles that say anything about the tariffs and taxes it will support what the Finance committee just said.
They said that the removal of the zeros will still take place after the first of the year and that no one man is so important as to effect monetary policy in Iraq.
The tariff and taxes law cannot be implemented without a corresponding raise in the exchange rate or they will experience double or triple rate inflation.
Everyone involved with the economy in Iraq knows this. The suspension of the ration card in March is another good sign.
It also implies that the rate will be changed by then and Iraq just agreed with the IMF to discontinue its usage. Chapter VII is another good sign just over the horizon.
We know there is a printing taking place of the small dinars that are supposed to be distributed this month and recently Maliki said the removal of the zeros will be postponed until after the first of the year.
As long as we don't see Maliki robbing the piggy bank (reserves) it is more than a possibility that the removal of the zeros could still take place just after the first of the year. This is not a prediction.
I've have studied and been in this investment since 2008. I have never had as much hope as I have at this time. Yes, the Shabibi thing took me for a loop also.
The truth is, I belived unless Shabibi was re-instated that the investment would be on perpetual hold.
I don't feel that way anymore because since 2008 I have never seen the target legislation and the budget in parliament to even be voted on. Well most of it is there. There is alot of progress being made even if the country goes dictator. The facts are this.
They still need to open up to free trade and they need an international currency.
No matter what Shabibi has said about Maliki, it is to Maliki's best interest long term to see that these two thing progress. IMHO Maliki's government is not stupid.
They may all be crooks but they’re not stupid. There is a war of ideas going on in the government.
Some say do it and some say don't. Again it is just my opinion but I believe that the path is clear.
Whether it is January or July, they will remove the zeros. It is possible that what has happened to Shabibi may infact be a good thing for our investment.
If Shabibi had backed of the removing of the zeros and had decided to introduce the currency internationally at a low rate and let it grow from there, the forces that are supporting this in the government continue to say "removal of the zeros".
This to me means if they can win this philosophical war that their intentions are to bring the dinar out at .86 or 1 to 1. Most of what is going on with the bank and the government will most likely be resolved by the end of November.
Most likely Shabibi will fade into the woodwork. The international community may resolve itself after years of Iraqi infighting, that this is the best solution of all. If they do then I'm sure that they will attempt to influence the direction of the country with the personalities that are there.
Open markets, oil production and currency will be the targets as they have always been.
KAPERONI: Shabibi is now a dead man if he comes back to Iraq. This is exactly what happened with Hashimi. Maliki will never let the warrant end, in fact, I now expect new charges to surface. Therefore Shabibi can never come back.
The one thing he was able to do was expose the modis operandi of Maliki. Will it have an effect? time will tell.
TOBYBOY: -- Kap I have to disagree with you concerning Shabibi not returning. I do feel he will get the warrants frozen & will return to Iraq.
I think this thing is going to go back & forth and he will be proven innocent but will not return as the CBI governor. At that point will go back to Switerland retiring.
Hopefully we see an RV by the beginning of year does not look promising for remainder of this year sadly to say. As you say we will have to let it play out and come to us. IMHO